Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.US Paving the Way for Massive First Strike on North Korea Nuclear and Missile Infrastructure - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Trump Reset: US War With China, North Korea Nuclear Flashpoint - Video - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Silver Junior Mining Stocks 2017 Q2 Fundamentals - Zeal_LLC
4.Soaring Inflation Plunges UK Economy Into Stagflation, Triggers Government Pay Cap Panic! - Nadeem_Walayat
5.The Bitcoin Blueprint To Your Financial Freedom - Sean Keyes
6.North Korea 'Begging for War', 'Enough is Enough', is a US Nuclear Strike Imminent? - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Hits All-Time High and Smashes Through $5,000 As Gold Shows Continued Strength - Jeff_Berwick
8.2017 is NOT "Just Another Year" for the Stock Market: Here's Why - EWI
9.Gold : The Anatomy of the Bottoming Process - Rambus_Chartology
10.Bitcoin Falls 20% as Mobius and Chinese Regulators Warn - GoldCore
Last 7 days
Stock Market Time to Go All-in. Short, That Is - 19th Oct 17
How Gold Bullion Protects From Conflict And War - 19th Oct 17
Stock Market Super Cycle Wave C May Have Started - 19th Oct 17
Negative Expectations, Will the Stock Market Correct? - 19th Oct 17
Knowing the Factors Affect your Car Insurance Premium - 19th Oct 17
Getting Your Feet Wet In Crypto Currencies - 19th Oct 17
10 Years Ago Today a Stocks Bear Market Started - 19th Oct 17
1987 Stock Market Crash 30th Anniversary Greatest Investing Lesson Learned - 19th Oct 17
Virgin Media Broadband Down, Catastrophic UK Wide Failure! - 19th Oct 17
The Passive Investing Bubble May Trigger A Massive Exodus from Stocks - 18th Oct 17
Gold Is In A Dangerous Spot - 18th Oct 17
History Says Global Debt Levels Will Lead to Another Crisis - 18th Oct 17
Deflation Basics Series: The Quantity Theory of Money - 18th Oct 17
Attractive European Countries for Foreign Investors - 18th Oct 17
Financial Transcription Services – What investors should know about them - 18th Oct 17
Brexit UK Vulnerable As Gold Bar Exports Distort UK Trade Figures - 18th Oct 17
Surge in UK Race Hate Crimes, Micro-Racism, Sheffield, Millhouses Park, Black on Asian - 18th Oct 17
Comfortably Numb: Surviving the Assault on Silver - 17th Oct 17
Are Amey Street Tree Felling's Devaluing Sheffield House Prices? - 17th Oct 17
12 Real-Life Techniques That Will Make You a Better Trader Now - 17th Oct 17
Warren Buffett Predicting Dow One Million - Being Bold Or Overly Cautious? - 17th Oct 17
Globalization is Poverty - 17th Oct 17
Boomers Are Not Saving Enough for Retirement, Neither Is the Government - 16th Oct 17
Stock Market Trading Dow Theory - 16th Oct 17
Stocks Slightly Higher as They Set New Record Highs - 16th Oct 17
Why is Big Data is so Important for Casino Player Acquisition and Retention - 16th Oct 17
How Investors Can Play The Bitcoin Boom - 16th Oct 17
Who Will Be the Next Fed Chief - And Why It Matters  - 16th Oct 17
Stock Market Only Minor Top Ahead - 16th Oct 17
Precious Metals Sector is on Major Buy Signal - 16th Oct 17
Really Bad Ideas - The Fed Should Have And Defend An Inflation Target - 16th Oct 17
The Bullish Chartology for Gold - 15th Oct 17
Wikileaks Mocking US Government Over Bitcoin Shows Why There Is No Stopping Bitcoin - 15th Oct 17
How to Wipe Out Puerto Rico's Debt Without Hurting Bondholders - 15th Oct 17
Gold And Silver – Think Prices Are Manipulated? Look In The Mirror! - 15th Oct 17
Q4 Pivot View for Stocks and Gold - 14th Oct 17
Gold Mining Stocks Q3’17 Preview - 14th Oct 17
U.S. Mint Gold Coin Sales and VIX Point To Increased Market Volatility and Higher Gold - 14th Oct 17
Yuan and Gold - 14th Oct 17
Tips for Avoiding a Debt Meltdown - 14th Oct 17
Bitcoin Hits New All-Time High Above $5,000 As Lagarde Concedes Defeat and Jamie Demon Shuts Up - 13th Oct 17
Golden Age for GOLD, Dark Age for the Stock Market - 13th Oct 17
The Struggle for Bolivia Is About to Begin - 13th Oct 17
3 Reasons to Take Your Invoicing Process Mobile - 13th Oct 17
What Happens When Amey Fells All of a Streets Trees (Sheffield Tree Fellings) - Video - 13th Oct 17
Stock Market Charts Show Smart Money And Dumb Money Are Moving In Opposite Directions—Here’s Why - 12th Oct 17
Your Pension Is a Lie: There’s $210 Trillion of Liabilities Our Government Can’t Fulfill - 12th Oct 17
Two Highly Recommended Books from Bob Prechter - 12th Oct 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

3 Videos + 8 Charts = Opportunities You Need to See - Free

Americas Economic Dominance Fades As the US Dollar Continues to Slump

Economics / US Economy Sep 14, 2007 - 01:25 PM GMT

By: Peter_Schiff

Economics Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAmerican Consumers are Losing their Crown - With the U.S. Dollar Index breaking decisively below its long-term support level, the sun is finally setting on the golden age of American consumption. As America 's economic dominance fades, so too will the faith in the central thesis that has explained its apparent success and has shaped the majority of recent economic theory.


At issue is the belief that a nation can grow and prosper by borrowing from abroad in order to consume imported goods. To consume at the pace that it has, America exchanges income producing assets, such as companies or property, or interest bearing IOUs, such as Treasury notes or mortgage-backed bonds, for foreign made clothes, toys and electronics. Economists call these transactions “growth”. But rather than discovering a new path to prosperity, America has simply stumbled on a short cut to financial ruin.

For years America has convinced the emerging market countries that their prosperity is a function of our consumption. It is argued that their export oriented economies would falter if not for the insatiable American willingness to consume (a “virtue” that is assumed to be uniquely American). As the dollar falls into the abyss, this myth will be shattered.

My forecast is that over the next two to three years the U.S. Dollar index will fall to 40; half of its current value. As this happens, much of America 's economic power will be transferred abroad. The chart below approximates current per capita U.S. dollar GDP for thirty nations, including the United States , listed in descending order.

Luxembourg 91,926.63
Norway 76,447.78
Ireland 57,163.07
Switzerland 54,466.77
Iceland 53,532.47
United States 46,085.15
Sweden 44,454.36
Netherlands 42,762.96
United Kingdom 41,959.85
Canada 41,347.87
Australia 37,981.52
France 37,416.55
Germany 36,779.14
United Arab Emirates 36,180.87
Japan 36,021.22
Singapore 32,082.02
Spain 31,726.55
New Zealand 24,511.95
Greece 24,030.41
Israel 20,510.55
Portugal 19,287.51
Saudi Arabia 16,612.16
Poland 9,214.27
Chile 8,335.70
Russia 8,183.02
Mexico 7,755.69
Argentina 6,548.80
Venezuela 6,393.99
Brazil 5,518.21
Peru 3,328.55

 

A 50% decline in the value of the dollar will simultaneously increase interest rates, consumer prices and unemployment in the United States , while causing stock and real estate prices to fall. Consumption, which accounts for better than 70% of U.S. GDP, should collapse as a result, producing a significant recession. My forecast is that U.S. GDP will contract by at least 20%. (The Fed may seek to mitigate the nominal decline with expansive monetary policy, but such moves will only result in an even greater contraction in real GDP.)

Assuming a 50% decline in the value of the dollar and a 20% fall in U.S. GDP, the above chart would look something like this:

Luxembourg 183,853.25
Norway 152,895.56
Ireland 114,326.14
Switzerland 108,933.54
Iceland 107,064.94
Sweden 88,908.73
Netherlands 85,525.93
United Kingdom 83,919.70
Canada 82,695.74
Australia 75,963.04
France 74,833.10
Germany 73,558.27
United Arab Emirates 72,361.73
Japan 72,042.44
Singapore 64,164.05
Spain 63,453.11
New Zealand 49,023.91
Greece 48,060.83
Israel 41,021.10
Portugal 38,575.02
United States 36,868.12
Saudi Arabia 33,224.32
Chile 16,671.40
Russia 16,366.03
Mexico 15,511.38
Argentina 13,097.61
Venezuela 12,787.97
Brazil 11,036.41
Peru 6,657.09

 

Obviously, these projections are very rough. Not all foreign currencies will rise in step and not all foreign GDPs will remain constant at today's levels in local currencies. However it is the concept that is important. Notice how America falls from 6 th place to 21 st . America 's per capita GDP falls from 58% of Luxemburg's, the top nation on the list, to a mere 20%. America 's per capita GDP falls from 14 times that of Peru , the lowest nation on the list, to only 5.6 times.

China is conspicuously absent from the list. Its current per capita GDP is only about $2,200. However, were China to allow its currency to float freely, my belief is that the yuan would rise far more significantly than other currencies. I have no idea how much more significantly that rise will be, but let us assume that its rise against the dollar would be double the rate of the typical currency in the Dollar Index. That would result in China 's per capita GDP rising to $8,800, just above Peru 's but still below Brazil 's.

Factoring in China 's enormous population means that such a significant rise in its per capita GDP would have a profound impact on global consumption.

Consider the following table, in billions of U.S. dollars, of the GDPs of the G-7 nations plus China :

United States 13,928.462
Japan 4,599.358
Germany 3,036.853
China 2,871.019
United Kingdom 2,552.655
France 2,370.843
Italy 1,949.878
Canada 1,357.073

 

Now consider the table with my assumptions regarding exchange rates and a 20% decline in U.S. GDP.

China 11,484.08
United States 11,142.77
Japan 9,198.72
Germany 6,073.71
United Kingdom 5,105.31
France 4,741.69
Italy 3,899.76
Canada 2,714.15

 

Under this scenario, China supplants the United States as the world's largest economy, not in 30 or 40 years as is commonly believed, but perhaps as soon as before the end of this decade. The U.S. retains its lead over Japan for second place, yet the margin declines from over 300% to just 10%. (My prediction is that the yen will rise more significantly than most other currencies meaning that Japan 's GDP will likely surpass U.S. GDP as well.) Further, the GDP of the thirteen nations sharing the euro is currently about 12.8 trillion dollars. After the dollar's decline it will rise to a staggering 25.6 trillion, more then twice that of the U.S. As a result, considering the EU as a single nation, the U.S. economy would then rank forth among the world's largest, with its GDP declining from 43% of world GDP to only 21%.

Current ideology holds that a recession in the United States as severe as the one I am forecasting would be catastrophic for the global economy. But this short-sighted view overlooks the effects of such tremendous dollar gains in the GDPs of the rest of the world. Wouldn't the increased consumption of everyone else offset the effects of the decreased consumption of Americans? It is not as if factories around the world would shut down if Americans stopped spending. All that would change would be the nationality of the buyers.

As American consumer spending declines, foreign spending will rise to take its place. With an explosion in foreign purchasing power, consumers around the world will see the dollar values of their incomes and savings soar. Globally, goods will fall in price and consumers around the world will snap up the bargains. Goods that were formerly out of reach for many foreign consumers will now be affordable. The reverse will occur in America . As production is diverted away from poorer Americans to more affluent foreigners, consumer prices in America will rise sharply. Goods that Americans used to easily “afford” will now be out of reach.

As gold surpasses $700 per ounce, oil tops $80 per barrel, and wheat prices exceed $9 per bushel, Americans are already getting a taste of things to come. Prices for these and other commodities are rising as a direct result of the weakness in the dollar. As this weakness intensifies in the months ahead, commodity price increases will accelerate. However, as their own currencies rise, many foreign buyers will actually experience price decreases. The result will be even greater demand for commodities from abroad just as domestic demand subsides.

Further, as the world stops exporting so much of its savings to America , there will be far more capital available to foreign entrepreneurs to invest productively. Think of the crowding out effect of so much of the world's savings being lent to American consumers. Now imagine the foreign investment boom that would follow as foreigners reclaim access to their own savings.

The American propensity to consume is not a unique talent. Any nation can emulate it so long as it finds willing lenders and suppliers. Production on the other hand is an entirely different matter. It requires free markets, limited government, the rule of law, savings, capital and hard work. The world economy will not be brought to its knees simply because Americans stop consuming. Rather it is America 's service sector economy that will collapse once the rest of the world stops propping it up.

For a more in depth analysis of the tenuous position of the Americana economy and U.S. dollar denominated investments, read my new book “Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse.” Click here to order a copy today.

By Peter Schiff
Euro Pacific Capital
http://www.europac.net/

More importantly make sure to protect your wealth and preserve your purchasing power before it's too late. Discover the best way to buy gold at www.goldyoucanfold.com , download my free research report on the powerful case for investing in foreign equities available at www.researchreportone.com , and subscribe to my free, on-line investment newsletter at http://www.europac.net/newsletter/newsletter.asp

Peter Schiff Archive

© 2005-2017 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife