Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Ravencoin RVN About to EXPLODE to NEW HIGHS! Last Chance to Buy Before it goes to the MOON! - 21st Oct 21
Stock Market Animal Spirits Returning - 21st Oct 21
Inflation Advances, and So Does Gold — Except That It Doesn’t - 21st Oct 21
Why A.I. Is About To Trigger The Next Great Medical Breakthrough - 21st Oct 21
Gold Price Slowly Going Nowhere - 20th Oct 21
Shocking Numbers Show Government Crowding Out Real Economy - 20th Oct 21
Crude Oil Is in the Fast Lane, But Where Is It Going? - 20th Oct 21
3 Tech Stocks That Could Change The World - 20th Oct 21
Best AI Tech Stocks ETF and Investment Trusts - 19th Oct 21
Gold Mining Stocks: Will Investors Dump the Laggards? - 19th Oct 21
The Most Exciting Medical Breakthrough Of The Decade? - 19th Oct 21
Prices Rising as New Dangers Point to Hard Assets - 19th Oct 21
It’s not just Copper; GYX indicated cyclical the whole time - 19th Oct 21
Chinese Tech Stocks CCP Paranoia, VIES - Variable Interest Entities - 19th Oct 21
Inflation Peaked Again, Right? - 19th Oct 21
Gold Stocks Bouncing Hard - 19th Oct 21
Stock Market New Intermediate Bottom Forming? - 19th Oct 21
Beware, Gold Bulls — That’s the Beginning of the End - 18th Oct 21
Gold Price Flag Suggests A Big Rally May Start Soon - 18th Oct 21
Inflation Or Deflation – End Result Is Still Depression - 18th Oct 21
A.I. Breakthrough Could Disrupt the $11 Trillion Medical Sector - 18th Oct 21
US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending - 17th Oct 21
The Gold Price And Inflation - 17th Oct 21
Went Long the Crude Oil? Beware of the Headwinds Ahead… - 17th Oct 21
Watch These Next-gen Cloud Computing Stocks - 17th Oct 21
Overclockers UK Custom Built PC 1 YEAR Use Review Verdict - Does it Still Work? - 16th Oct 21
Altonville Mine Tours Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 16th Oct 21
How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
The Only way to Crush Inflation (not stocks) - 14th Oct 21
Why "Losses Are the Norm" in the Stock Market - 14th Oct 21
Sub Species Castle Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 14th Oct 21
Which Wallet is Best for Storing NFTs? - 14th Oct 21
Ailing UK Pound Has Global Effects - 14th Oct 21
How to Get 6 Years Life Out of Your Overclocked PC System, Optimum GPU, CPU and MB Performance - 13th Oct 21
The Demand Shock of 2022 - 12th Oct 21
4 Reasons Why NFTs Could Be The Future - 12th Oct 21
Crimex Silver: Murder Most Foul - 12th Oct 21
Bitcoin Rockets In Preparation For Liftoff To $100,000 - 12th Oct 21
INTEL Tech Stock to the MOON! INTC 2000 vs 2021 Market Bubble WARNING - 11th Oct 21
AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
Stock Market Wall of Worry Meets NFPs - 11th Oct 21
Stock Market Intermediate Correction Continues - 11th Oct 21
China / US Stock Markets Divergence - 10th Oct 21
Can US Save Taiwan From China? Taiwan Strait Naval Battle - PLA vs 7th Fleet War Game Simulation - 10th Oct 21
Gold Price Outlook: The Inflation Chasm Between Europe and the US - 10th Oct 21
US Real Estate ETFs React To Rising Housing Market Mortgage Interest Rates - 10th Oct 21
US China War over Taiwan Simulation 2021, Invasion Forecast - Who Will Win? - 9th Oct 21
When Will the Fed Taper? - 9th Oct 21
Dancing with Ghouls and Ghosts at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 9th Oct 21
Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
Scan Computers - Custom Build PC 6 Months Later, Reliability, Issues, Quality of Tech Support Review - 8th Oct 21
Gold and Silver: Your Financial Main Battle Tanks - 8th Oct 21
How to handle the “Twin Crises” Evergrande and Debt Ceiling Threatening Stocks - 8th Oct 21
Why a Peak in US Home Prices May Be Approaching - 8th Oct 21
Alton Towers Scarefest is BACK! Post Pandemic Frights Begin, What it's Like to Enter Scarefest 2021 - 8th Oct 21
AJ Bell vs II Interactive Investor - Which Platform is Best for Buying US FAANG Stocks UK Investing - 7th Oct 21
Gold: Evergrande Investors' Savior - 7th Oct 21
Here's What Really Sets Interest Rates (Not Central Banks) - 7th Oct 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

U.S. China Inevitable Strategic Conflict

Politics / GeoPolitics Aug 06, 2010 - 04:22 AM GMT

By: Global_Research


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleProf Wang Jisi writes: In early 2010, conflicts between China and the US came thick and fast, leading to the most serious political disturbance between the two countries since the plane collision in 2001. At the beginning of April, as the heads of both countries talked over the telephone and Chinese President Hu Jintao attended a nuclear security summit in Washington, Sino-US relations became less tense. Tensions were further eased by the Second China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue held in Beijing in May.

But at the same time some deep-laid contradictions between the two countries are becoming more acute. The recent US-South Korean military exercises in the Yellow Sea showed that a Sino-US strategic consensus has not yet been established, while strategic mistrust has deepened.


Let's examine some factors that have affected Sino-US relations since 2003, when Sino-US relations were arguably at a high.


1. US domestic politics


In 2003, then US President George W. Bush's popularity was still relatively high, and the Republicans held the presidency, senate, and congress.


Today US President Barack Obama's popularity is waning, suggesting his control over Sino-US relations is weaker than Bush's.


At the midterm elections in November, the Democrats will face a stiff challenge from the Republicans, and China may be increasingly targeted as a result. In the US State and Defense departments, hardliners on China are gaining ground. 2. Trade


In 2003, the two countries saw many trade frictions, and the US also raised the issue of the yuan exchange rate. But, current Sino-US trade frictions have extended to financial fields that previously had a positive effect on bilateral relations and the problem of the yuan exchange rate has become highly politicalized.


Meanwhile, some transnational corporations, such as Goldman Sachs, Google and General Electric, have become very discontented with China's policies of fostering homegrown innovation. Economic and trade conflicts have become serious barriers to developing a bilateral strategic consensus.


3. Military ties


Sino-US military exchanges were interrupted by the air collision in 2001, but Chinese Defense Minister Cao Gangchuan's visit to the US in October 2003 marked the "full restoration" of bilateral military exchanges. Nevertheless, early this year, military exchanges were frozen again due to US approval of arms sales to Taiwan, and officers in the military of both nations are voicing more antagonistic sentiments.


4. Taiwan


In 2003, the Chen Shui-bian administration was advocating for changes in Taiwan's status. But at that time, the US was busy with Iraq War and counter-terrorism, so the US accused the Taiwan authorities of disrupting the status quo of cross-Taiwan Straits relations and the US regarded Chen as a troublemaker.


Bush and all the senior officials in charge of US-Sino affairs declared on many occasions that the US supported for one-China policy and did not support the independence of Taiwan.


China and the US reached a kind of consensus around the Taiwan question. But the recent arms sales have been described by Chinese officials as "a stab in the back."


5. North Korea


In 2003 tripartite talks between China, the US and the North Korea were held, as well as the first round of Six-Party Talks. But seven years later, North Korea has conducted two nuclear tests, and a new round of Six-Party Talks is far off. The Cheonan incident, where China refused to support the West in blaming North Korea in the UN, further worsened multilateral relations. China and the US both regard the other side as playing a negative role in dealing with North Korea, and strategic mistrust has arisen as a result.


6. Japan


Sino-Japanese relations have been a counterbalance to Sino- US relations since the end of the Cold War. In January 2003, then Japanese Prime Miniter Junichiro Koizumi paid homage to the war dead at the Yasukuni Shrine, arousing indignation in China. In the following couple of years, Japan's image in China was worse than that of the US, and in 2005 there were widespread anti-Japanese protests in China.


However, since Sino-Japanese relations began to improve in 2006, contradictions between China and the US have sharpened. Today, the Chinese people's nationalist sentiments are mainly focused on the US rather than on Japan.


7. International security


Around March 2003, when the US launched the Iraq War, the US contradictions with countries like France, Germany and Russia and the Islamic world were very acute, and all over the world, anti-American sentiments soared to unprecedented level. China took a neutral position, for which the Bush administration was grateful.


But today's situation is quite different. The US is dissatisfied with China's attitude toward the Iranian nuclear issue. China did not respond to Obama's call for a "non-nuclear world" readily, and the US military and diplomatic arrangements among China's neighbors also set China on its guard.


8. Non-traditional security


In 2003, the fight against SARS promoted the two countries' consensus on non-traditional issues, but some unpleasant clashes also occurred at the UN Copenhagen Climate Change Conference in late 2009. On climate and energy issues, both sides have large populations who are deeply skeptical of the other side's pledges and motivations.


9. Changing perceptions


In December and November 2003, Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao expounded on China's peaceful rise. At that juncture, US observers believed that China's long-term development direction was to integrate into the West-led international order.


But today the US media increasingly see China as a threat, and also labels it as such increasingly.


In China, as indicated by the publications like Currency Wars, Unhappy China, and The Chinese Dream, nationalism and anti-US feelings are rising.


Arguments for a more forceful rise and for abandoning long held principles such as non-alignment and no first use of nuclear weapons are also not rare in some Chinese media.


10. Hard power


The gap between the two countries is also closing. In 2003, China's GDP was $1.4 trillion, equal to one-eighth of the US $10.9 trillion. By 2009, China's GDP had grown to $5 trillion, equal to more than one-third of the US $14 trillion. And the US share of the world's economy decreased from 29 percent in 2003 to 23 percent in 2009.


The gap between the two counties' hard power is reducing fast. Since the global financial crisis, the West's strength and influence have been reduced, and emerging powers have been playing a more and more important role in the world.




Sino-US strategic relations face a significant adjustment process. As China's strength grows rapidly, China will push harder on the issues mentioned above, and take the initiative on the premise of maintaining stable Sino-US relations. Now, in the game between China and the US, China has more possession of the ball, but the ball is kicked to the US more frequently.


Sino-US practical cooperation has developed a lot both in breadth and in depth since 2003, and the two sides have broad and increasing common interests in many fields, especially in education, public health, energy and finance.


But the crux of current Sino-US relations is that on some major strategic and security issues, on which China increasingly attempts to say "No," there is no immediate prospect of the US changing its position.


The gap between the two sides' perceptions on major international issues is getting bigger. US strategists are still trying to take advantages of China's weak spots in domestic and foreign affairs.


China's increased power cannot be transferred into initiative and policy levers in dealing with Sino-US relations. It will take a long time for the US to change its China policies. Therefore, in the future the strategic cooperation space between the two will be squeezed, and major competition is inevitable.


China's domestic stability and development are the precondition of the stability and development of Sino-US relations. Only if China deals with its domestic affairs better will there be better Sino-US relations. The relevant departments need to coordinate with each other and keep pace with the central government on major issues.


Wang Jisi is director of Peking University's Center for International and Strategic Studies.

 Global Research Articles by Wang Jisi

© Copyright Prof Wang Jisi, Global Research, 2010

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Centre for Research on Globalization. The contents of this article are of sole responsibility of the author(s). The Centre for Research on Globalization will not be responsible or liable for any inaccurate or incorrect statements contained in this article.

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in