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Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019

UK Inflation CPI 4%, RPI 5.1%, Real 6.6%, Pressure Building on Wage Price Spiral

Economics / Inflation Feb 15, 2011 - 04:40 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Economics

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleUK Inflation for January 2011 leapt to CPI 4% from 3.7%, leaving the Bank of England Governor, Mervyn King to press print on another letter full of worthless excuses as to why high Inflation is still temporary more than a year on. The facts are that the Bank of England via its policy of HIGH Inflation is destroying a lifetime of accumulated capital of savers, as interest earned on savings after tax will be lucky to be at HALF the official inflation rate, never mind the actual inflation rate that is nearer to 6.6%, all as part of the continuing programme for the transference of wealth from tax payers and savers onto the balance sheets of the bailed out banks that generate fictitious profits on the basis of which billions are paid out in bonuses.


The more widely recognised measure of Inflation RPI stood at 5.1% and real inflation at 6.6%, as the official inflation indices have been systematically doctored to under report real inflation by successive governments for several decades resulting in serious and compounding under reporting of the real rate of inflation as experienced by the British population.

The Bank of England MPC members continue with their mantra of temporarily high inflation due to short term factors. One could cut and paste from any inflation statement from MPC members of the past 12 months to hear the same propaganda out of the Bank of England. The question everyone should be asking the BoE is when does temporary high inflation stop being temporary? Originally it was for a couple of months, now it is over a year, will high inflation still be temporary a decade from now? For that is how long I expect the Inflation Mega-trend to run.

The gold fish memory broadcast and mainstream media fed by ivory tower academic economists continues to tow the line of temporarily high inflation by focusing on core inflation that excludes, food and energy costs because off course everyone in the UK has stopped feeding or heating themselves. Despite that fact that food and energy are far more relevant to the British population than for instance the price of a 50 inch Plasma Screen.

UK Inflation Forecast 2011

The updated in-depth analysis and forecast for UK inflation for 2011 (17 Jan 2011 - UK Inflation Forecast 2011, Imminent Spike to Above CPI 4%, RPI 6% ) concluded in UK inflation spiking to a high of 4.2% early 2011, and thereafter trend lower towards 3% by the end of 2011 and therefore remaining above the Bank of England's 3% upper limit for the whole of 2011. The Bank of England's most recent Inflation Report forecast UK CPI of 1.7% by the end of 2011, however the BoE had forecast UK CPI of just 1% by the end of 2010 (Feb 2010), which is inline with the Bank of England's permanent mantra of near always imminent deflation so as to better manage the populations inflation expectations in their favour.

UK Inflation Forecast 2011

Bank of England Targeting Nominal GDP Not Inflation.

My ongoing UK Inflation analysis concluded in the fact that the Bank of England has clearly not been targeting 2% inflation for some time but more likely been targeting a sustained trend to above 2% GDP, which given the Q4 2010 dip ensures that the Bank of England's MPC will continue to sleep walk the country into a wage price spiral.

The Inflation Mega-trend

We are living in a decade of high inflation that was covered at length in the 100 page Inflation Mega-trend ebook (FREE DOWNLOAD), that contains 50 pages of analysis and 50 pages of wealth protection strategies.

Western governments such as the UK and USA are printing their way out of their fiscal crisis whilst emerging markets have soaring demand for commodities, goods and services and are now seeking to export their inflation abroad so as to prevent their populations from revolting over high food prices Tunisia and Egypt style.

The bottom line is that the Bank of England remains paralysed by the fear of another banking sector financial armageddon, and is continually pressured by the UK government that seeks high inflation as a means of making stealth deep real terms cuts in public spending, the deficit and total accumulated debt, thus the British economy is being sleep walked towards a wage price inflation spiral, as people will refuse to be lied to anymore on temporary inflation statements and start to demand wage rises in line with inflation, at which point the BoE will again act too little too late.

The fuel duty hike due in April 2011 of 5p per litre ensures that Britain will experience another so called 'temporary' inflation shock as the fools at the Bank of England looks set to blindly continue to brush aside every single inflationary factor that crops up each month as just being temporary whilst the pressure builds to beyond boiling point on the wage price spiral.

When will the Bank of England Pull the Trigger on UK Interest Rates ?

Will be the question that my next in-depth analysis will seek to answer and conclude towards a trend forecast for 2011 (in the next few days). Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter to get this analysis and forecast in your email in box as well as my next ebook on the Real Secrets of Successful Trading which will also be made available for free (Anticipated April 2011).

Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article26314.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-11 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 24 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis specialises on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and the housing market and he is the author of the NEW Inflation Mega-Trend ebook that can be downloaded for Free. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 600 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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