Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Online Elliott Wave Markets Trading Course Worth $129 for FREE! - 22nd Sep 20
Gold Price Overboughtness Risk - 22nd Sep 20
Central Banking Cartel Promises ZIRP Until at Least 2023 - 22nd Sep 20
Stock Market Correction Approaching Initial Objective - 22nd Sep 20
Silver Bulls Will Be Handsomely Rewarded - 21st Sep 20
Fed Will Not Hike Rates For Years. Gold Should Like It - 21st Sep 20
US Financial Market Forecasts and Elliott Wave Analysis Resources - 21st Sep 20
How to Avoid Currency Exchange Risk during COVID - 21st Sep 20
Crude Oil – A Slight Move Higher Has Not Reversed The Bearish Trend - 20th Sep 20
Do This Instead Of Trying To Find The “Next Amazon” - 20th Sep 20
5 Significant Benefits of the MT4 Trading Platform for Forex Traders - 20th Sep 20
A Warning of Economic Collapse - 20th Sep 20
The Connection Between Stocks and the Economy is not What Most Investors Think - 19th Sep 20
A Virus So Deadly, The Government Has to Test You to See If You Have It - 19th Sep 20
Will Lagarde and Mnuchin Push Gold Higher? - 19th Sep 20
RTX 3080 Mania, Ebay Scalpers Crazy Prices £62,000 Trollers Insane Bids for a £649 GPU! - 19th Sep 20
A Greater Economic Depression For The 21st Century - 19th Sep 20
The United Floor in Stocks - 19th Sep 20
Mobile Gaming Market Trends And The Expected Future Developments - 19th Sep 20
The S&P 500 appears ready to correct, and that is a good thing - 18th Sep 20
It’s Go Time for Gold Price! Next Stop $2,250 - 18th Sep 20
Forget AMD RDNA2 and Buy Nvidia RTX 3080 FE GPU's NOW Before Price - 18th Sep 20
Best Back to School / University Black Face Masks Quick and Easy from Amazon - 18th Sep 20
3 Types of Loans to Buy an Existing Business - 18th Sep 20
How to tell Budgie Gender, Male or Female Sex for Young and Mature Parakeets - 18th Sep 20
Fasten Your Seatbelts Stock Market Make Or Break – Big Trends Ahead - 17th Sep 20
Peak Financialism And Post-Capitalist Economics - 17th Sep 20
Challenges of Working from Home - 17th Sep 20
Sheffield Heading for Coronavirus Lockdown as Covid Deaths Pass 432 - 17th Sep 20
What Does this Valuable Gold Miners Indicator Say Now? - 16th Sep 20
President Trump and Crimes Against Humanity - 16th Sep 20
Slow Economic Recovery from CoronaVirus Unlikely to Impede Strong Demand for Metals - 16th Sep 20
Why the Knives Are Out for Trump’s Fed Critic Judy Shelton - 16th Sep 20
Operation Moonshot: Get Ready for Millions of New COVAIDS Positives in the UK! - 16th Sep 20
Stock Market Approaching Correction Objective - 15th Sep 20
Look at This Big Reminder of Stock Market Mania - 15th Sep 20
Three Key Principles for Successful Disruption Investors - 15th Sep 20
Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager Warns of 10% Inflation - 15th Sep 20
Gold Price Reaches $2,000 Amid Dollar Depreciation - 15th Sep 20
GLD, IAU Big Gold ETF Buying MIA - 14th Sep 20
Why Bill Gates Is Betting Millions on Synthetic Biology - 14th Sep 20
Stock Market SPY Expectations For The Rest Of September - 14th Sep 20
Gold Price Gann Angle Update - 14th Sep 20
Stock Market Recovery from the Sharp Correction Goes On - 14th Sep 20
Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
The Silver Big Prize - 13th Sep 20
U.S. Shares Plunged. Is Gold Next? - 13th Sep 20
Why Are 7,500 Oil Barrels Floating on this London Lake? - 13th Sep 20
Sheffield 432 Covid-19 Deaths, Last City Centre Shop Before Next Lockdown - 13th Sep 20
Biden or Trump Will Keep The Money Spigots Open - 13th Sep 20
Gold And Silver Up, Down, Sideways, Up - 13th Sep 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

Math Vindicates S&P U.S. Debt Downgrade

Interest-Rates / US Debt Jan 03, 2012 - 12:04 PM GMT

By: Michael_Pento

Interest-Rates Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleStandard and Poor’s has been greatly vilified for their call to lower the U.S. credit rating to AA+ from AAA.  The evidence, naysayers point to, for their justification of excoriating S&P is the performance of Treasuries since the downgrade occurred.  Indeed, U.S. debt yields have fallen and the dollar has increased in the five months after being stripped of AAA.

In fact, foreigners increased their holdings of Treasuries in Q3 by $17.2 billion and now own nearly 50% of our marketable debt.  And 60% of their currency reserves are in U.S. dollars.  So there are no signs of panic yet.

The prevailing wisdom of today now yields to the conclusion that getting your debt downgraded automatically renders a boost to your currency and bond prices.  Therefore, why worry?  Their comfort is ridiculously based upon the notion that the U.S. has a printing press and can create unlimited amounts of inflation.  Therefore, interest rates will never rise and debt service won’t ever be a problem.

I think that’s also what the government of Hungary believed after WWII.  They had a printing press also and it was used to pay debts accumulated during the war.  But their daily rate of inflation hit a global record of over 200%.  I wonder if the mortgage rates in Hungary were low back in 1946?

I, of course, strongly applaud S&P for attempting to shed a light on our pernicious debt problem.  The U.S. government seems completely inept at taking even the smallest baby step towards lowering our annual shortfall in revenue over spending—let alone paying off the debt.

Recent examples of the paralysis in Washington include; the debt ceiling debate, Simpson Bowles Committee and the payroll tax holiday extension.  Time after time D.C. manages to decide to increase the debt without cutting spending.

But what vindicates Standard and Poor’s the most is simply the math behind the government’s debt obligation. Our debt now exceeds the total GDP, and the annual deficits pile are piling on an additional $1.3 trillion each year to that accumulated debt.  Our publicly traded debt has increased 100% in the last 5 years!!!  What is even worse is that our debt as a percentage of revenue is exploding.  Back in 1971, the national debt was 218% of revenue.  In the year 2000, the debt as a percentage of revenue had grown to 280%. Today, it has skyrocketed to 700% of revenue…and if you think that is worth panicking over you are absolutely correct.  Yet those ethnocentric politicians and Wall Street Banksters still believe the credit rating agency had no basis to downgrade the U.S.

The bad news is the worst is yet to come. Just wait until interest rates start to rise.  The average yield on U.S. debt is near 1% today.  It was 6.5% in the year 2000.  But given our record level of debt and Fed-led money creation, yields on Treasuries could and should go much higher than at any other point in U.S. history.  Just imagine the economic instability that will arise when yields start to soar on corporate, consumer and government debt.

So much has been written and spoken about the pristine state of corporate balance sheets. Wall Street gurus love to parrot the fact that corporations hold a record level of cash. But it is also true that those same corporations now hold a record $7.6 trillion in debt. The facts are that households, corporations and government now hold a record level of debt. And the total of that debt as a percentage of GDP is, historically speaking, extremely high and close to its record set just a few years ago. These artificial and temporary low interest rates won’t last. Inflation and massive debt supply will force rates higher. Then, the economy will falter as the percentage of debt to GDP soars. Just imagine what would happen to the real estate market if mortgage rates went back to 8%, if corporations had to pay double digits to refinance their debt and if the Federal government had to roll over its $10.5 trillion in debt at 7% instead of paying 2%.

That’s the reason why I believe if there is any criticism to be placed on Standard and Poor’s it should be that their rating of U.S. debt is still too high; and that the downgrade came way too late. 

Michael Pento

Pento Portfolio Strategies
(O) 732-203-1333
(M) 732- 213-1295

Mr. Michael Pento is the President of Pento Portfolio Strategies and serves as Senior Market Analyst for Baltimore-based research firm Agora Financial.
Pento Portfolio Strategies provides strategic advice and research for institutional clients. Agora Financial publishes award-winning newsletters, critically acclaimed feature documentaries and international best-selling books.

Mr. Pento is a well-established specialist in the Austrian School of economics and a regular guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, FOX Business News and other national media outlets. His market analysis can also be read in most major financial publications, including the Wall Street Journal. He also acts as a Financial Columnist for Forbes, Contributor to and is a blogger at the Huffington Post.
Prior to starting Pento Portfolio Strategies and joining Agora Financial, Mr. Pento served as a senior economist and vice president of the managed products division of another financial firm. There, he also led an external sales division that marketed their managed products to outside broker-dealers and registered investment advisors. 
Additionally, Mr. Pento has worked for an investment advisory firm where he helped create ETFs and UITs that were sold throughout Wall Street.  Earlier in his career Mr. Pento spent two years on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.  He has carried series 7, 63, 65, 55 and Life and Health Insurance Licenses. Mr. Pento graduated from Rowan University in 1991.

© 2010 Copyright Michael Pento - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Michael Pento Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules