Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold Final Warning: Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - P_Radomski_CFA
2.Fed Balance Sheet QE4EVER - Stock Market Trend Forecast Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3.UK House Prices, Immigration, and Population Growth Mega Trend Forecast - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Gold and Silver Precious Metals Pot Pourri - Rambus_Chartology
5.The Exponential Stocks Bull Market - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Yield Curve Inversion and the Stock Market 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.America's 30 Blocks of Holes - James_Quinn
8.US Presidential Cycle and Stock Market Trend 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Dear Stocks Bull Market: Happy 10 Year Anniversary! - Troy_Bombardia
10.Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off! - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Stock Market Crash Edition - 26th Mar 19
Handy Ways to Boost Your Home Income - 26th Mar 19
US Treasury Bond Yield Inversion and Political Fed Cycles - 26th Mar 19
Golan Heights Oil all about the Shekels - 26th Mar 19
Falling Yields a Catalyst for The Gold Catalyst - 26th Mar 19
Can We Lock Up Rachel Maddow Now? - 25th Mar 19
Real US National Debt Might Be $230 Trillion - 25th Mar 19
Friday's Stock Market Sell-Off - New Downtrend or Just Correction? - 25th Mar 19
20 Days Left to Find Buying Opportunities In Gold - 25th Mar 19
Will the Historic Imbalance in Gold Stocks to Gold Price Resolve ? - 25th Mar 19
EasySMX Wireless Games Controllers Review - 25th Mar 19
Stock Market Short-term Top - 25th Mar 19
UK Population Growth - Latest ONS Immigration Statistics and Consequences - 24th Mar 19
The Fed Follows Trump's Tweets, And Does The Right Thing - 24th Mar 19
Yield Curves, 2yr Yield, SPX Stocks and a Crack Up Boom? - 24th Mar 19
Risk/Reward in Silver Favors Buying Now, Not Waiting for Big Moves - 23rd Mar 19
Similarities Between Stock Market Today and Previous Bull Market Tops - 23rd Mar 19
Stock Market DOW Seasonal Trend Analysis - 23rd Mar 19
US Dollar Breakdown on Fed Was Much Worse Than It Looks - 23rd Mar 19
Gold Mid-Tier GDXJ Stocks Fundamentals - 23rd Mar 19
Which Currency Pairs Stand to Benefit from Prevailing Risk Aversion? - 23rd Mar 19
If You Get These 3 Things Right, You’ll Never Have to Worry About Money - 22nd Mar 19
March 2019 Cryptocurrency Technical Analysis - 22nd Mar 19
Turkey Tourist Fakes Market Bargains Haggling Top Tips - 22nd Mar 19
Next Recession: Finding A 48% Yield Amid The Ruins - 22nd Mar 19
Your Future Stock Returns Might Unpleasantly Surprise You - 22nd Mar 19
Fed Acknowledges “Recession Risks”. Run for the Hills! - 22nd Mar 19
Will Bridging Loans Grow in Demand and Usage in 2019? - 22nd Mar 19
Does Fed Know Something Gold Investors Do Not Know? - 21st Mar 19
Gold …Some Confirmations to Watch For - 21st Mar 19
UKIP No Longer About BrExit, Becomes BNP 2.0, Muslim Hate Party - 21st Mar 19
A Message to the Gold Bulls: Relying on the CoT Gives You A False Sense of Security - 20th Mar 19
The Secret to Funding a Green New Deal - 20th Mar 19
Vietnam, Part I: Colonialism and National Liberation - 20th Mar 19
Will the Fed Cut its Interest Rate Forecast, Pushing Gold Higher? - 20th Mar 19
Dow Jones Stock Market Topping Pattern - 20th Mar 19
Gold Stocks Outperform Gold but Not Stocks - 20th Mar 19
Here’s What You’re Not Hearing About the US - China Trade War - 20th Mar 19
US Overdosing on Debt - 19th Mar 19
Looking at the Economic Winter Season Ahead - 19th Mar 19
Will the Stock Market Crash Like 1937? - 19th Mar 19
Stock Market VIX Volaility Analysis - 19th Mar 19
FREE Access to Stock and Finanacial Markets Trading Analysis Worth $1229! - 19th Mar 19
US Stock Markets Price Anomaly Setup Continues - 19th Mar 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019

Stock Market Finally at the Top!

Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market Sep 12, 2012 - 06:32 AM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThings are speeding up on several fronts, including the markets. I will fall back to doing one closing Commentary on Wednesday and a Weekend Report on Saturday until further notice. I will still attempt to bring you breaking news as it happens.

I wish to inform you that I am being vetted for a position with a much larger RIA firm with a possible start date of October first. I still don’t know if or how that will affect my newsletters. Until then, I intend to keep the letters going, at least until further notice.

As with any new position, I will have to adjust to the new culture and follow their compliance rules, which I am not yet privy to. Having said that, I wish to reports on the progress of the cycles so far this week.

The VIX has completed its minor wave 2 retracement and has advanced to the 50-day moving average at 16.56. I understand that it may have risen above it in the overnight markets already. This leaves one final resistance at the mid-Cycle at 18.52 and the inverted Head & Shoulders Neckline at 18.90. Crossing either of these resistances will launch the VIX beyond its Daily Cycle Top resistance at 23.89 in its third wave. This would give intermediate degree wave [1] a target near 28.00, possibly positioning it for a new Head & Shoulders pattern roughly level with the 27.73 top. I will discuss new targets at we come to that point.

SPY has spent the last three days at Cycle Top resistance at 144.39. Folks, this model was designed to show where the Cycle Tops are supposed to be, and it is working flawlessly. In addition, I would like to point out that equities are within 8.6 days of a 43-month cycle from March 9, 2009 to September 20, 2012. It is a little shy of 43 calendar months, but September 20 is 1290 days from March 9, 2009. SPY does not have to wait until September 20 to break down. In fact, most cycle tops fall within the 8.6 day, 13 day or 17.2 day variance. The March 9, 2009 Cycle low was 13 days early, as a matter of fact. Last Year’s Master Cycle low was 13 days late. The October 17, 1987 low was 17.2 days early.

The point that I am trying to make is that 9 of 11 cycles currently show either major highs or lows due in the next 8.6 days, or possibly longer with extensions. That is what we have to prepare for. These Cycle Tops often break violently and the Broadening Top formations all lend credence to that idea. The daily chart show that the top is already in.

Finally, after being two weeks early, CAF is finally doing what it has to do. It has already made up for the initial losses of an early placement, and has plenty further to go. Be aware that there will be retracements along the way, so if you wish to add longs, please attempt to find a decent pullback. If it pulls back here, a decent interval may be the 50% retracement at 18.36, which is close to intermediate-term support at 18.39. Wave (3) seems to have an attraction to the Cycle Top at 21.30. Wave (5) still appears targeted to 22.25 or higher. By the way, Jeff Gundlach agrees with my analysis on the Shanghai Index as well as SPY/SPX.

Well, that’s it for now. There’s plenty more to discuss, but I feel that tomorrow will bring even more information to the table.



Our Investment Advisor Registration is on the Web

We are in the process of updating our website at to have more information on our services. Log on and click on Advisor Registration to get more details.

If you are a client or wish to become one, please make an appointment to discuss our investment strategies by calling Connie or Tony at (517) 699-1554, ext 10 or 11. Or e-mail us at .

Anthony M. Cherniawski, President and CIO

As a State Registered Investment Advisor, The Practical Investor (TPI) manages private client investment portfolios using a proprietary investment strategy created by Chief Investment Officer Tony Cherniawski. Throughout 2000-01, when many investors felt the pain of double digit market losses, TPI successfully navigated the choppy investment waters, creating a profit for our private investment clients. With a focus on preserving assets and capitalizing on opportunities, TPI clients benefited greatly from the TPI strategies, allowing them to stay on track with their life goals

Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only.  There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

Anthony M. Cherniawski Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules