Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Ukraine Preface, the Emerging Dynamics Of Petro-Yuan Standard - Jim_Willie_CB
2. Speculations Reversed - Gold Price Stealth Rally 2014 - Peter_Schiff
3.Bubbleberg News Drivel Masquerading as Financial Reporting - David A. Stockman
4.Nationwide UK House Prices 9.5% Inflation, Housing Market on Steroids, Help to Buy Anniversary - Nadeem_Walayat
5.How to Profit from Palladium Huge Price Surge… - Peter Krauth
6.UK Home Solar Panel Installations Good or Bad for House Buying and Selling? - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Global Gold Manipulation Update - MAP Wave Analysis - Marc_Horn
8.Ukraine Capital Controls and 200% Inflation But Still In Better Shape Than US! - Jeff_Berwick
9.The Rise of a Euro-Chino-Russian Superpower - Stephan Bogner
10.Across Europe Secession Movements Intensify - BATR
Last 72 Hrs
10 Ways to Screw up Your Retirement - 17th Apr - 14
One of Harry Dent’s Three Keys to Market Prediction is Cycles - 17th Apr - 14
Obamacare Proof Stocks - 17th Apr - 14
Gold, Silver And The Mining Sector: Prepare For A Severe Fall - 17th Apr - 14
Hidden Australian Life Sciences Bio-tech Growth Stocks - 17th Apr - 14
Disrupting Big Data Status Quo - 17th Apr - 14
What the Stock Market Bears Have Been Waiting for... - 17th Apr - 14
Copper Is Pathological and Suffers from SAD, but It Has Value - 17th Apr - 14
Old World Order New World Order, Chaos And Change - 17th Apr - 14
Even The US Government Will Abandon the U.S. Dollar - 17th Apr - 14
Gold - Coming Super Bubble - 17th Apr - 14
Glaring Q.E. Failure Spotted - Money Velocity Is Falling Rapidly - 16th Apr 14
High-Frequency Insider Trading - 16th Apr 14
Gold Prices 2014: Do What Goldman Does, Not What It Says - 16th Apr 14
These CEOs Will Make Investors Rich - 16th Apr 14
Climate Change, Central Banking And The Faustian Bargain - 16th Apr 14
Every Central Bank for Itself - 16th Apr 14
Social Security, U.S. Treasury Stealing Every Last Penny From Americans - 16th Apr 14
Ukraine Falling to Economic Warfare and Its Own Missteps - 16th Apr 14
Silver and Gold Miners Still Disappoint - 16th Apr 14
Silver, Gold, and What Could Go Wrong - 15th Apr 14
How I Intend to Survive the Meltdown of America - 15th Apr 14
France Wakes Up To The Multicultural Multi-Threat - 15th Apr 14
The Real Purpose Of QE - It’s Not Employment - 15th Apr 14
Peak Coal - 15th Apr 14
Flash Crash, Rigged Markets - What’s the Frequency Zenith? - 15th Apr 14
Forecasting U.S. GDP Growth: A Look at WSJ Economists’ Collective Crystal Ball - 15th Apr 14
Stock Market - Is Something Nasty About to Happen? - 15th Apr 14
How to Trade Your Way To Freedom - 15th Apr 14
Understanding (and Ignoring) the Media Bandwagon Against Gold - 15th Apr 14
When Stock Market Bubble Crashes, Take Refuge in Gold Stocks - 15th Apr 14
Bitcoin Price Strong Appreciation to Be Followed by Declines? - 14th Apr 14
Greece, Turkey, We're Shuffling The Cards on Our Europe Investing Play - 14th Apr 14
Silver Price Ultimate Rally: When Paper Assets Collapse - 14th Apr 14
Get Your Share of an Extra Trillion Euros Money Printing - 14th Apr 14
Fourth Reversals in The Gold and Silver Charts - 14th Apr 14
Stock Market Nearing Rally in a Downtrend - 14th Apr 14
London House Prices Bubble, Debt Slavery, Crimea 2.0 - Russia Ukraine Annexation - 14th Apr 14
Four Horsemen - Top Economists Explain the Source of Our Economic Crisis - Video - 13th Apr 14
Peak Oil And Global Warming – A Question Of Culture - 13th Apr 14
The Global Banking Game Is Rigged, and the FDIC Is Suing - 13th Apr 14
College Degree Earnings Propaganda - 13th Apr 14 - Andrew Syrios
Stock Market Potential Diagonal Triangle Pattern Forming - 12th Apr 14
Ukraine Crisis – Military Flash Drive Thinking - 12th Apr 14
Gold And Silver – 2014 Coud Be A Yawner; Be Prepared For A Surprise - 12th Apr 14
Gold Preparing to Launch as U.S. Dollar Drops to Key Support - 12th Apr 14
Manipulated Stocks Markets And The Empty Bag - 12th Apr 14
Stock Market - It’s Not Time to Panic… It’s Time to Buy - 12th Apr 14
Doctor Doom on the Fiat Money Empire Coming Financial Crisis - 12th Apr 14
Sheffield, Rotherham Roma Benefits Plague, Ch5 Documentary Gypsies on Benefits & Proud - 11th Apr 14
This Bitcoin Price Rally Might Be a Fake One - 11th Apr 14
GDX Gold Stocks Benchmark - 11th Apr 14
Silver Price Finally Outperforms – How Bullish Is That? - 11th Apr 14
Limits to Employment Participation, and Societal Change - 11th Apr 14
US Moves To Restrict Travelers Taking International Flights - 11th Apr 14
Bill Gross to El-Erian: 'Come on, Mohamed, Tell Us Why' You Resigned PIMCO - 11th Apr 14
British Pound GBP/USD - Double Top or Further Rally? - 11th Apr 14
Don't Miss the Boat on Big Biotech Catalysts: Keith Markey - 11th Apr 14
Russia Invaded Crimea and These US Energy Companies Made a Killing - 11th Apr 14

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

U.S. Economic Recovery? Sign's of What's Ahead

Economics / US Economy Oct 08, 2012 - 01:38 AM GMT

By: EWI

Economics

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSeveral signs suggest economic contraction instead of expansion.

The first was recent front-page news: 8.1% August jobless rate. The number would have been higher, but it excludes people who gave up the job search.


The second is summed up by this Sept. 4 Bloomberg headline:

Food-Stamp Use Climbs to Record

Nearly one in seven Americans use food stamps. Before the downturn it was one in 10.

You can find the third sign at the other end of the income scale.

The chart shows that after a multi-decade bull market that tracked the major stock indexes, lobster prices (per pound) peaked in 2005, one year ahead of the global downturn. The timing of the lobster price top is so close to the downturn in home prices that the Maine Department of Marine Resources noted, "Interestingly, a 'lobster bubble' coincided with the national 'housing bubble' in 2006. ... The six-year divergence between per-pound prices and total pounds (shown by the trendlines on the chart) suggests that lobster mania will not be back for a long time. Luxury is a classic byproduct of a bubble.

The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, August 2012

Speaking of the parallel trend of lobster and home prices, a Sept. 18 Wall Street Journal excerpt reveals the fourth sign of a deflationary trend:

Mortgage lending declined to its lowest level in 16 years in 2011 amid weak demand for mortgages and tighter lending standards.

A Sept. 19 Reuters article says the latest housing data is mixed:

U.S. housing starts rose less than expected in August as groundbreaking on multifamily home projects fell, but the trend continued to point to a turnaround in the housing market.

Yet we've seen "hopeful signs" of a housing recovery before. The larger trend for real estate points in the opposite direction.

The fifth sign is summed up in this Sept. 18 CBS headline:

Median Income Worse Now Than It Was During Great Recession

The article says:

The median income for American households in 2009 - the official end of the Great Recession - was $52,195 (in 2011 dollars), while the median income dipped to $50,054 last year, falling 4.1 percent over two years. ... The recovery is the "most negative for household income during any post-recession period in the past four decades."

The "Great Recession" never ended. A more accurate way of describing the state of the economy is the onset of "depression."

Have you prepared your portfolio for what's ahead? See below for an offer to view 8 chapters of Robert Prechter's New York Times bestseller, Conquer the Crash.


8 Chapters of Conquer the Crash

This free, 42-page report can help you prepare for your financial future. You'll get valuable lessons on what to do with your pension plan, what to do if you run a business, how to handle calling in loans and paying off debt and so much more.

Get Your FREE 8-Lesson "Conquer the Crash Collection" Now >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Economic Gloom or Recovery? 5 Signs That One is Ahead. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Best Regards,

About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International
Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.


© 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014