Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.The Brexit War! EU Fearing Collapse Set to Stoke Scottish Independence Proxy War - Nadeem_Walayat
2.London Terror Attack Red Herring, Real Issue is Age of Reason vs Religion - Nadeem_Walayat
3.The BrExit War, Game Theory Strategy for What UK Should Do to Win - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Goldman Sachs Backing A Copper Boom In 2017 - OilPrice_Com
5.Trump to Fire 50 US Cruise Missiles To Erase Syrian Chemical Attack Air Base, China Next? - Nadeem_Walayat
6.US Stock Market Consolidation Time - Rambus_Chartology
7.Stock Market Investors Stupid is as Stupid Goes - James_Quinn
8.Gold in Fed Interest Rate Hike Cycles- Zeal_LLC
9.The BrExit War - Britain Intelligence Super Power Covert War With the EU - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Marc Faber: Euro to Strengthen, Dollar to Weaken, Gold and Emerging Markets to Outperform - MoneyMetals
Last 7 days
What A War With North Korea Would Look Like - 25th Apr 17
Pensions Are On The Way Out But Retirement Funds Are Not Working Either - 25th Apr 17
Frank Holmes : Gold Could Hit $1,500 in 2017 Amid Imbalances & Weak Supply - 25th Apr 17
3 Reasons Why “Spring Forward, Fall Back” Also Applies To Gold - 25th Apr 17
SPX may be Aiming at the Cycle Top Resistance - 25th Apr 17
Walmart Stock Extending Higher - Elliott Wave Trend Forecast - 25th Apr 17
Google Panics and KILLS YouTube to Appease Mainstream Media and Corporate Advertisers - 25th Apr 17
Gold Price Is 1% Shy of Ripping Higher - 25th Apr 17
Exchange-Traded Funds Make Decisions Easy - 25th Apr 17
Trump Is Among The Institutionally Weakest National Leaders In The World - 25th Apr 17
3 Maps That Explain the Geopolitics of Nuclear Weapons - 25th Apr 17
Risk on Stock Market French Election Euphoria - 24th Apr 17
Fear Campaign Against Americans Continues Nuclear Attack Drills in New York City - 24th Apr 17
Is the Stock Market Bounce Over? - 24th Apr 17
This Could Be One Of the Biggest Winners Of The Electric Car Boom - 24th Apr 17
Le Pen Shifts Political Landscape- The Rise of New French Gaullism  - 24th Apr 17
IMF Says Austerity Is Over - Surplus or Stimulus - 24th Apr 17
EURUSD at a Critical Point in Wave Structure - 23rd Apr 17
Stock Market Grand Super Cycle Overview While SPX Correction Continues - 23rd Apr 17
Robert Prechter Talks About Elliott Waves and His New Book - 23rd Apr 17
Le Pen, Melenchon French Election Stock, Bond and Euro Markets Crash - 22nd Apr 17
Why You Are Not An Investor - 22nd Apr 17
Gold Price Upleg Momentum Building - 22nd Apr 17
Why Now Gold and Silver Precious Metals? - 22nd Apr 17
4 Maps That Signal Central Asia Is at Risk of War - 22nd Apr 17
5 Key Steps For A Comfortable Retirement From Former Wall Street Trader - 22nd Apr 17
Can Marine Le Pen Win? French Presidential Election Forecast 2017 - 21st Apr 17
Why Stock Market Investors May Soon Be In For A Rude Awakening - 21st Apr 17
Median US Household’s Wealth Has Declined by 40% Since 2007 - 21st Apr 17
Silver, Platinum and Palladium as Investments – Research Shows Diversification Benefit - 21st Apr 17
U.S. Stock Market and Gold, Post Tomahawks and MOAB - 21st Apr 17
An In Depth Look at the Precious Metals Complex - 20th Apr 17
The Real Story of China’s Strong First-Quarter Growth - 20th Apr 17
3 Types Of Life-Changing Crisis That Make You Wish You Had Some Gold - 20th Apr 17
The Truth is a Dangerous Thing - 20th Apr 17
2 Choke Points That Threaten Oil Trade Between Persian Gulf And East Asia - 20th Apr 17
Gold’s Next Downside Target Is Around $700… Even if It Breaks Up First - 19th Apr 17
SPX May be Completing its Corrective Pattern - 19th Apr 17
Silver Production Has “Huge Decline” In 2nd Largest Producer Peru - 19th Apr 17
Soothing East Asia's Nerves as Trump's Administration Reaffirms US Power in Asia-Pacific - 19th Apr 17
The Brexit War - Article 50 Triggered, General Election 2017 Called - Let the Games Begin! - 19th Apr 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Why 95% of Traders Fail

U.S. Economic Recovery? Sign's of What's Ahead

Economics / US Economy Oct 08, 2012 - 01:38 AM GMT

By: EWI

Economics

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSeveral signs suggest economic contraction instead of expansion.

The first was recent front-page news: 8.1% August jobless rate. The number would have been higher, but it excludes people who gave up the job search.


The second is summed up by this Sept. 4 Bloomberg headline:

Food-Stamp Use Climbs to Record

Nearly one in seven Americans use food stamps. Before the downturn it was one in 10.

You can find the third sign at the other end of the income scale.

The chart shows that after a multi-decade bull market that tracked the major stock indexes, lobster prices (per pound) peaked in 2005, one year ahead of the global downturn. The timing of the lobster price top is so close to the downturn in home prices that the Maine Department of Marine Resources noted, "Interestingly, a 'lobster bubble' coincided with the national 'housing bubble' in 2006. ... The six-year divergence between per-pound prices and total pounds (shown by the trendlines on the chart) suggests that lobster mania will not be back for a long time. Luxury is a classic byproduct of a bubble.

The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, August 2012

Speaking of the parallel trend of lobster and home prices, a Sept. 18 Wall Street Journal excerpt reveals the fourth sign of a deflationary trend:

Mortgage lending declined to its lowest level in 16 years in 2011 amid weak demand for mortgages and tighter lending standards.

A Sept. 19 Reuters article says the latest housing data is mixed:

U.S. housing starts rose less than expected in August as groundbreaking on multifamily home projects fell, but the trend continued to point to a turnaround in the housing market.

Yet we've seen "hopeful signs" of a housing recovery before. The larger trend for real estate points in the opposite direction.

The fifth sign is summed up in this Sept. 18 CBS headline:

Median Income Worse Now Than It Was During Great Recession

The article says:

The median income for American households in 2009 - the official end of the Great Recession - was $52,195 (in 2011 dollars), while the median income dipped to $50,054 last year, falling 4.1 percent over two years. ... The recovery is the "most negative for household income during any post-recession period in the past four decades."

The "Great Recession" never ended. A more accurate way of describing the state of the economy is the onset of "depression."

Have you prepared your portfolio for what's ahead? See below for an offer to view 8 chapters of Robert Prechter's New York Times bestseller, Conquer the Crash.


8 Chapters of Conquer the Crash

This free, 42-page report can help you prepare for your financial future. You'll get valuable lessons on what to do with your pension plan, what to do if you run a business, how to handle calling in loans and paying off debt and so much more.

Get Your FREE 8-Lesson "Conquer the Crash Collection" Now >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Economic Gloom or Recovery? 5 Signs That One is Ahead. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Best Regards,

About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International
Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.


© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife