Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.BrExit House Prices Crash, Flat or Rally? UK Housing Market Affordability Crisis - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Stocks Bull Market Climbs Wall of Worry, Bubble? When Will it End? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Gold Price Is Now On Its Way To All-Time Highs - Hubert_Moolman
4.Deutche Bank Stock Price Crash - The EU Has Problems Far Beyond the Brexit - Harry_Dent
5.UK interest Rate PANIC CUT! As Banks Prepare to Steal Customer Deposits - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Gold and Silver Bull Phase 1 : Final Impulse Dead Ahead - Plunger
7.Central Bankers Fighting An Unprecedented Global Economic Slowdown - Gordon_T_Long
8.Putin Hacking Hillary for Trump, Russia's Manchurian Candidate? - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Stock Market Insiders Are Secretly Selling, Cycle Top Next Month - Chris_Vermeulen
10.Gold Sector - Is it time to Back up the Truck? – Mortgage the Farm? - Peter_Degraaf
Free Silver
Last 7 days
Theresa May Instructs Police, NHS Gp's, Public Sector To Stop Racial Discrimination in Service Delivery - 28th Aug 16
Ignore Yellen and Buy the Dip in Precious Metals - 27th Aug 16
SPX Downtrend Should be Underway - 27th Aug 16
Unraveling the Secular Economic Stagnation Story - 27th Aug 16
The Precious Metals Sector and the Fed. . . - 27th Aug 16
Stock Market - All Is Calm, All Is Not Right - 27th Aug 16
Gold Junior Stocks Q2 2016 Fundamentals - 26th Aug 16
Buy Gold’s August Dip? Gold’s Monthly Sweet Spot In September - 26th Aug 16
The IMF’s Internal Audit Reveals Its Incompetence and Massive Rule Breaking - 26th Aug 16
Commodities Are the Best Bargain Now—Here’s What to Buy - 26th Aug 16
Why I Left Canada and Became A Citizen of the Dominican Republic - 26th Aug 16
The GLD vs GOLD - 26th Aug 16
Can Stocks Survive Without Stimulus? - 25th Aug 16
Why Putin Might Be on His Way Out - 25th Aug 16
Bond Guru Gary Shilling - The Bond Market Rally of a Lifetime - 25th Aug 16
A Zombie Financial System, Black Swans and a Gold Share Correction - 25th Aug 16
OPEC’s Output Freeze: What Has Changed Since Doha? - 25th Aug 16
Merkel Prepares For a Deliberate Crisis While White House Plans For a Disastrous Succession - 24th Aug 16
Suspicious Reversal in Gold Price - 23rd Aug 16
If Trump Can’t Pull Off a Victory, Expect a Civil War - 23rd Aug 16
Ceding ICANN and Internet Control to Globalists - 23rd Aug 16
How to Spot an Oversold Stock Market - 23rd Aug 16
Gerald Celente Sees Worst Market Crash, New Military Conflict, Gold Spike to $2,000/oz - 23rd Aug 16
EU Olympics Medals Table Propaganda Includes BrExit Britain - 22nd Aug 16
BrExit Win's Britain Olympics Success Freedom Dividend, Economy Next - 22nd Aug 16
Stock Market Top Forming, but Slowly - 22nd Aug 16
(Really) Alternative Banking Systems - 22nd Aug 16
Vauxhall Zafira Fires - Second Recall Issued - Inspection Before Bursting into Flames? - 21st Aug 16
Will the Stock Market Bubble Pop Regardless if the FED Never Raises Rates? - 21st Aug 16
US Government Spending - 3 Big Stories Not Being Covered – Part III - 21st Aug 16
Silver Analysis - 20th Aug 16
SPX New Highs, Correction Next? - 20th Aug 16
Housing Bubble - The Marginal Buyer Holds The Pin That Pops Every Asset Bubble - 20th Aug 16
Gold Miners Q2 2016 Fundamentals - 19th Aug 16
Which Price Ratio Matters Most in a Fiat Ponzi? - 19th Aug 16
Big Policies, Bigger Failures - 19th Aug 16
Higher Crude Oil’s Prices and USD/CAD - 19th Aug 16
Here’s Why You Should Look for Dividend Stocks and How - 19th Aug 16
Deglobalization Already Underway — 4 Technologies That Will Speed It Up - 19th Aug 16
These 6 Charts Show Why the Average American Is Fed Up - 18th Aug 16
SPX Easing Lower - 18th Aug 16
Low / Negative Interst Rate’s Legacy - 18th Aug 16
The 45th Anniversary of The Most Destructive Event In Modern Monetary History - 18th Aug 16
USDU - An Important Perspective on the US Dollar - 17th Aug 16
SPX Completes Wave 1 Decline - 17th Aug 16
How to Quickly Spot Common Fibonacci Ratios on a Chart - 17th Aug 16
When Does a Forecast Become a Trade? - 17th Aug 16
Kondratiev Wave - The Financial Winter Is Nearing! - 17th Aug 16
Learn "The 4 Best Elliott Waves to Trade -- and How to Trade Them" - 16th Aug 16
Stock Market Bears Turning Bullish At New All Time Highs - Time to Get Worried? - 15th Aug 16
Job Seekers Sacrificed to the Inflation Gods - 15th Aug 16
A Look At Commodities and Financial Markets Trading Week Ahead - 15th Aug 16
Stock Market New Top Forming? - 15th Aug 16

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Trade Elliott Waves

What to Expect If We Go Over the Fiscal Cliff?

Politics / Taxes Nov 16, 2012 - 07:06 AM GMT

By: Money_Morning

Politics

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleKeith Fitz-Gerald writes: I'm on the road this week in Las Vegas and Los Angeles and receiving lots of great questions as usual from your fellow Money Morning subscribers.

Here's a few that really caught my attention. Not surprisingly, one of the biggies deals with the fiscal cliff.


Q - What happens if we go over the "fiscal cliff"...really? - Jerry S.

A - Nobody truly knows Jerry. However, here are five things I expect to happen as a result.

First, the U.S. goes back into recession. The CBO (Congressional Budget Office) suggests there will a 0.5% contraction if the government can't stop both the debt and the spending cuts. That's a huge drop from the 2% growth it presently expects.

I think both numbers are complete fantasy, incidentally. The government missed this crisis in formation and they are flying blind now. How on earth they can predict 2% growth right now defies any sort of logic whatsoever. Then again, we are talking about the federal government. Sigh.

If we go over the fiscal cliff, I'm expecting as much as a full 1% contraction. And growth under the circumstances will hardly be normal, let alone 2% for years to come. The fiscal cliff and our politicians' unwillingness to do anything about it other than kick the can down the road so far makes it clear to me that America is going to struggle with the legacy of decades of bad fiscal policy for years to come -- just like Japan has for more than two decades.

Second, I think companies are simply going to vote with their wallets under the circumstances. Many are already hoarding dollars and announcing changes to operations following the election, but now they're going to cut back further on capital spending.

At the same time, the fiscal cliff will reduce foreign direct investment into the U.S. because many companies will shift their attention to other markets where there is more certainty.

Third, the unemployment rate will rise, housing markets will reverse course, and the Fed will engage in yet more meddling and more money printing. It will no doubt be well intentioned, but simply digs America further into a hole.

Fourth, the government will continue to raise taxes on the "rich," only they will broaden the bag so as to sweep in much of Middle America. People who are content to think this strategy applies only to the "super rich" haven't yet keyed in on how broad this net will actually be. I think they're in for a rude awakening.

As part of this process, I expect Congress to make a grab for retirement assets, and attempt to force those who want to save for their future to save for Washington's future as a part of some sort of mandated savings requirement. Chances are they will engage in some tax reform when it comes to municipal bonds and other income- oriented investments, too.

Fifth, the markets will falter and perhaps even correct by 20%, as Marc Faber recently suggested on CNBC. No doubt that's going to stink on a variety of fronts. But a retracement will also put a slew of great companies on sale and create unbelievable opportunities in everything from gold, inverse funds, certain bonds, and especially the "glocal" stocks we prefer.

I don't share Washington's optimism that things will magically get fixed, which is why we've been preparing Money Morning readers and those of our sister service, The Money Map Report, ahead of time for this contingency. As part of that, we've been selling into strength, picking up metals and tightening up our trailing stops.

Having bought into the markets off the 2009 lows, I am not anxious to see subscribers lose the gains many are sitting on if they have followed along with our recommendations.

Now's not the time to take anything for granted, especially when it comes to your money.

Q - I'm worried that the short sellers who were so problematic a few years ago will reappear and tank the markets. But I don't hear a lot about it right now...why? - John S.

(Editor's Note: John's referring to the naked short sellers who made headlines early on in the financial crisis because of the amount of money they made betting that the prices of stocks (and other investments) would go down.)

A - Super question. There are a few factors at work. First, coming off the March 2009 lows, it's been very hard for short sellers to establish positions because hard rallies don't tend to create a lot of opportunities. Second, much of the short selling was conducted by institutional traders working for big banks, in particular. They're under the microscope right now so it's not likely they are going to override their short rules again without incurring the wrath of an understandably angry public and deeply embarrassed regulators. Third, the SEC has tightened up the borrowing requirements for short sellers so it's no longer possible for more than one party to borrow the same shares of stock needed to effect the short. This reduces the number of shares available to short - in other words, there simply isn't as much fuel available for the bonfire ...

Q - How do you tell when institutions are getting cold feet and hedging? - Rhonda P.

A - Thanks for asking, Rhonda. Admittedly, this is more of an art than a science but here's what I look for.

First, volume will generally begin to fall off. When coupled with prices that are still rising, it suggests the big money is distributing their shares to late comers. Typically you will see a rash of headlines "blossom" around the same time, or analyst reports touting yet more gains to ramp it up as a means of inviting the last people to the party before the lights are turned out. That's why I frequently advocate selling into strength...because I'd rather be with "em than be left holding the bag they want to hand to unsuspecting buyers.

Second, looking at time and sales information, particularly for options on the big indexes, is a favorite of mine. When I see a "bloom" of activity that's headed in the wrong direction from the major averages, for example, I know that something's up...or about to be down.

Third, I look to the Commitment of Traders Report, or COT for short. Put out as a weekly report every Tuesday by the CFTC, it shows net long and net short positions for commercial and non-commercial traders. What makes this report interesting is that it frequently shows when traders shift from one side of the fence to the other, many times in advance of bigger market shifts.

Q - Loved your recent comments in the Wall Street Journal article on collectibles; I'm also an avid motorcyclist. I'm wondering if now's the time to diversify into other collectibles too? - Randy Z.

A - Thanks, Randy. One of these days we're going to have to put together a Money Morning ride. I hope you'll join in when we do.

As for collectibles, there's no doubt they can provide significant portfolio diversification. However, there's an important caveat - when you want to sell, collectibles are only worth what a buyer offers.

Sometimes that's a lot, but sometimes that's not. Collectibles pricing is closely related to overall economic conditions and the specificity of the collectible. The market for Picasso is very different, for example, than the market for early Chinese bronzes.

In closing, please keep those great questions coming. I enjoy receiving them and love answering them even more. You can send them to: keith@moneymorning.com

Source :http://moneymorning.com/2012/11/16/five-with-fitz-what-to-expect-if-we-go-over-the-fiscal-cliff/

Money Morning/The Money Map Report

©2012 Monument Street Publishing. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), of content from this website, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Monument Street Publishing. 105 West Monument Street, Baltimore MD 21201, Email: customerservice@moneymorning.com

Disclaimer: Nothing published by Money Morning should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investent advice. We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security recommended to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication, or after the mailing of printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended by Money Morning should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

Money Morning Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife