Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast - Saudi's Want $100 for ARAMCO Stock IPO - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold Price Focusing on May Cycle Bottom - Jim_Curry
3.Silver, silver, and silver! There’s More Than Silver, People! - P_Radomski_CFA
4.Is the Malaysian Economy a Potemkin Village - Sam_Chee_Kong
5.Stock Market Study Shows Why You Shouldn’t “Sell in May and Go Away” - Troy_Bombardia
6.A Big Stock Market Shock is About to Start - Martin C
7.A Long Term Gold Very Unpopular View - Rambus_Chartology
8.Stock Market “Sell in May and go away” Study When Stocks Are Down YTD - Troy_Bombardia
9.Global Currency RESET Challenge: Ultimate Twist - Jim_Willie_CB
10.The Coming Silver Supply Crunch Is Worse Than You Know - Jeff Clark
Last 7 days
Natural Gas Setup for 32% Move in UGAZ Fund - 19th Jun 18
Magnus Collective To Empower Automation And Artificial Intelligence - 19th Jun 18
Trump A Bull in a China Shop - 19th Jun 18
Minor Car Accident! What Happens After You Report Your Accident to Your Insurer - 19th Jun 18
US Majors Flush Out A Major Pivot Low and What’s Next - 18th Jun 18
Cocoa Commodities Trading Analysis - 18th Jun 18
Stock Market Consolidating in an Uptrend - 18th Jun 18
Russell Has Gone Up 7 Weeks in a Row. EXTREMELY Bullish for Stocks - 18th Jun 18
What Happens Next to Stocks when Tech Massively Outperforms Utilities and Consumer Staples - 18th Jun 18
The Trillion Dollar Market You’ve Never Heard Of - 18th Jun 18
The Corruption of Capitalism - 17th Jun 18
North Korea, Trade Wars, Precious Metals and Bitcoin - 17th Jun 18
Climate Change and Fish Stocks – Burning Oxygen! - 17th Jun 18
A $1,180 Ticket to NEW Trading Opportunities, FREE! - 16th Jun 18
Gold Bullish on Fed Interest Rate Hike - 16th Jun 18
Respite for Bitcoin Traders Might Be Deceptive - 16th Jun 18
The Euro Crashed Yesterday. Bearish for Euro and Bullish for USD - 15th Jun 18
Inflation Trade, in Progress Since Gold Kicked it Off - 15th Jun 18
Can Saudi Arabia Prevent The Next Oil Shock? - 15th Jun 18
The Biggest Online Gambling Companies - 15th Jun 18
Powell's Excess Reserve Change and Gold - 15th Jun 18
Is This a Big Sign of a Big Stock Market Turn? - 15th Jun 18
Will Italy Sink the EU and Boost Gold? - 15th Jun 18
Bumper Crash! Land Rover Discovery Sport vs Audi - 15th Jun 18
Stock Market Topping Pattern or Just Pause Before Going Higher? - 14th Jun 18
Is the ECB Ending QE a Good Thing? Markets Think So - 14th Jun 18
Yield Curve Continues to Flatten. A Bullish Sign for the Stock Market - 14th Jun 18
How Online Gambling has Impacted the Economy - 14th Jun 18
Crude Oil Price Targeting $58 ppb Before Finding Support - 14th Jun 18
Stock Market Near Another Top? - 14th Jun 18
Thorpe Park REAL Walking Dead Living Nightmare Zombie Car Park Ride Experience! - 14th Jun 18
More on that Gold and Silver Ratio 'Deviant Conundrum' - 13th Jun 18
Silver Shares? Nobody Cares - 13th Jun 18
What Happens to Stocks, Forex, Commodities, and Bonds When the Fed Hikes Rates - 13th Jun 18
Gold and Silver Price Setting Up for A Sleeper Breakout - 13th Jun 18
Tesla Stock Analysis - 12th Jun 18
What Happens Next to Stocks when Russell Goes up 6 Weeks in a Row - 12th Jun 18
Gold vs. Stocks: Ratios Do Not Imply Correlation - 12th Jun 18
Silver’s Not-so-subtle Outperformance - 12th Jun 18
Why You Should Brace Yourself for Big Financial Changes - 11th Jun 18
Inflation to Skyrocket When Fed Reverts to New QE & Interest Rate Cuts - 11th Jun 18
Stock Market Topping Pattern or Just Consolidation? - 11th Jun 18
Study: What Happens Next to Stocks When the Put/Call Ratio is Very Low - 11th Jun 18
G7 Chaos, Central Banks and US Fed Will Drive Stock Prices This Week - 11th Jun 18
SPX Unshackled - 11th Jun 18
When Trump Met Fibonacci And Won - 11th Jun 18
FREE Theme Park Entry with Cadbury's Choc's! Legoland, Alton Towers, Chessington.... - 11th Jun 18
Stock Market Could Pullback for 1-2 weeks, But Medium Term Bullish - 10th Jun 18
End of the World Stock Market Chart! - 10th Jun 18
All US Homes Are Overvalued - 10th Jun 18
Thorpe Theme Park London Car Park Exit Nightmare - Drivers Beware! - 10th Jun 18
Gold Price Summer Doldrums - 9th Jun 18
How to Prepare for Economic Uncertainty with Gold and Silver - 9th Jun 18
5 "Tells" that the Stock Markets Are About to Reverse - 9th Jun 18
Billionaire Schools Teacher in NAFTA Trade Talks - 9th Jun 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport ECO Mode Real World Driving MPG Fuel Economy - 9th Jun 18
Crude Oil Bullish Weekly Reversal vs. Bearish Monthly Reversal - 8th Jun 18
Fed’s Interest Rate Hike is Short term Bearish for Stocks - 8th Jun 18
The Deviant Conundrum Called Silver - 8th Jun 18
Pleasure Island Theme Park Cleethorpes, Last Day Trip Before it Closed Down - 8th Jun 18
America’s One-sided Domestic Financial War - 8th Jun 18
Debt Consolidation Advice: When and Why to Consolidate - 8th Jun 18
Get Out Of Crypto Cannabis Bubble Before It Pops and Move Into Bargain Basement Miners - 8th Jun 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

5 "Tells" that the Stock Markets Are About to Reverse

Rotherham By-Election Result, Labour Sarah Champion Wins, UKIP 2nd, BNP 3rd

ElectionOracle / UK Politics Nov 29, 2012 - 07:34 PM GMT

By: N_Walayat

ElectionOracle

Labour's Sarah Champion held onto the Rotherham Seat on a sizeable majority, with the UKIP doing well to come 2nd, who benefited form a week of frenzy of reporting surrounding the Rotherham fostering scandal. Whilst the BNP surprised many by beating Respect into 3rd Place, though the facts are that the BNP candidate was the only person to actually reside in Rotherham, the rest resided from several miles to hundreds of miles away (Respect) which undoubtedly influenced voters at the ballot box.


Rotherham By-election Results

Party Candidate Votes % Share
Labour Sarah Champion 9,866 46.25%
UKIP Jane Collins 4,648 21.79%
BNP Marlene Guest 1,804 8.46%
Respect Yvonne Ridley 1,778 8.34%
Conservative Simon Wilson 1,157 5.42%
Ind Simon Copley 582 2.73%
Lib Dem Michael Beckett 451 2.11%
TUSC Ralph Dyson 261 1.22%
Ind Paul Dickson 51 0.24%
EDL Clint Bristow 29 0.14%

Turnout 33.8%, down from 59% at the 2010 general election (lost deposits).

Whilst the mainstream press reporting had built itself up into a frenzy of possible expectations for either Respect or UKIP winning the by-election from Labour, however the probable outcome had never remained in any doubt that it was near impossible for Labour to lose the Rotherham by-election during the Coalition Governments mid-term blues as the following articles illustrated.

24 Nov 2012 - Rotherham Election Frenzy, UKIP Fostering Scandal, Campaigning Gets Dirtier by the day

My recent analysis (Rotherham By-election Who Will Win?) concluded that given Labour's large majority of 10,500, and regardless of all of the mud that is flying around, Rotherham still remains a very safe Labour seat, that coupled with the mid-term unpopularity of the Coalition government implies less votes for the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives, which means that the probability still remains extremely high that Labour will win on Thursday, albeit with a much reduced majority.

22 Nov 2012 - Rotherham By-election Who Will Win? Hospice CEO, Journalist or a Priest?

Probability continues to strongly favour Labour's Sarah Champion winning the by-election by a sizeable margin, as the candidate who would probably be in the best interests of the people of Rotherham, Simon Copley, lacks a party machine that can go up against Labour's slick election machine, it remains to be see if Rotherham is in for an election surprise!

Therefore were I to put money on the by-election, I would put it on Labour to win.

14 Nov 2012 - Rotherham By-election Labour Elite Betrays Local People by Dictating Outside MP

Labour goes into the by-election with a strong 10,450 majority, so despite voter anger at having an outsider imposed upon them still has an huge unbridgeable advantage that is enhanced by Coalition Government mid-term blues. So probability strongly favours the Labour candidate winning the by-election, albeit with a smaller majority, because at the end of the day ALL of the other major parties are putting up candidates from outside of Rotherham with the most ridiculous being Respect who had to cross Hadrian's wall to find a candidate, how the hell is someone living in Scotland going to know what the day to day issues of people living in Rotherham are?

Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article37797.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2012 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of three ebook's - The Inflation Mega-Trend; The Interest Rate Mega-Trend and The Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 that can be downloaded for Free.

Stocks Stealth Bull Market Ebook DownloadThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend Ebook DownloadThe Inflation Mega-Trend Ebook Download

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 600 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules