Labour's Sarah Champion held onto the Rotherham Seat on a sizeable majority, with the UKIP doing well to come 2nd, who benefited form a week of frenzy of reporting surrounding the Rotherham fostering scandal. Whilst the BNP surprised many by beating Respect into 3rd Place, though the facts are that the BNP candidate was the only person to actually reside in Rotherham, the rest resided from several miles to hundreds of miles away (Respect) which undoubtedly influenced voters at the ballot box.
Rotherham By-election Results
|Lib Dem||Michael Beckett||451||2.11%|
Turnout 33.8%, down from 59% at the 2010 general election (lost deposits).
Whilst the mainstream press reporting had built itself up into a frenzy of possible expectations for either Respect or UKIP winning the by-election from Labour, however the probable outcome had never remained in any doubt that it was near impossible for Labour to lose the Rotherham by-election during the Coalition Governments mid-term blues as the following articles illustrated.
My recent analysis (Rotherham By-election Who Will Win?) concluded that given Labour's large majority of 10,500, and regardless of all of the mud that is flying around, Rotherham still remains a very safe Labour seat, that coupled with the mid-term unpopularity of the Coalition government implies less votes for the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives, which means that the probability still remains extremely high that Labour will win on Thursday, albeit with a much reduced majority.
Probability continues to strongly favour Labour's Sarah Champion winning the by-election by a sizeable margin, as the candidate who would probably be in the best interests of the people of Rotherham, Simon Copley, lacks a party machine that can go up against Labour's slick election machine, it remains to be see if Rotherham is in for an election surprise!
Therefore were I to put money on the by-election, I would put it on Labour to win.
Labour goes into the by-election with a strong 10,450 majority, so despite voter anger at having an outsider imposed upon them still has an huge unbridgeable advantage that is enhanced by Coalition Government mid-term blues. So probability strongly favours the Labour candidate winning the by-election, albeit with a smaller majority, because at the end of the day ALL of the other major parties are putting up candidates from outside of Rotherham with the most ridiculous being Respect who had to cross Hadrian's wall to find a candidate, how the hell is someone living in Scotland going to know what the day to day issues of people living in Rotherham are?
Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article37797.html
By Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of three ebook's - The Inflation Mega-Trend; The Interest Rate Mega-Trend and The Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 that can be downloaded for Free.
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