Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Will Gold Price Breakout? 3 Things to Watch… - Jordan_Roy_Byrne
2.China Invades Saudi Oil Realm: PetroDollar Kill - Jim_Willie_CB
3.Bitcoin Price Trend Forecast, Paypal FUD Fake Cryptocurrency Warning - Nadeem_Walayat
4.The Stock Market Trend is Your Friend ’til the Very End - Rambus_Chartology
5.This Isn’t Your Grandfather’s (1960s) Inflation Scare - F_F_Wiley
6.GDX Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - Zeal_LLC
7.US Housing Real Estate Market and Banking Pressures Are Building - Chris_Vermeulen
8.Return of Stock Market Volatility Amidst Political Chaos and Uncertain Economy - Buildadv
9.Can Bitcoin Price Rally Continue After Paypal Fake FUD Attack? - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Warning Economic Implosion on the Horizon - Chris_Vermeulen
Last 7 days
Is War "Hell" for the Stock Market? - 19th Apr 18
Palladium Bullion Surges 17% In 9 Days On Russian Supply Concerns - 19th Apr 18
Breadth Study Suggests that Stock Market Bottom is Already In - 19th Apr 18
Allegory Regarding Investment Decisions Made On Basis Of Government’s Income Statement, Balance Sheet - 19th Apr 18
Gold – A Unique Repeat of the 2007 and How to Profit - 19th Apr 18
Abbeydale Park Rise Cherry Tree's in Blossom - Sheffield Street Tree Protests - 19th Apr 18
The Stock Market “Turn of the Month Effect” Exists in 11 of 11 Countries - 18th Apr 18
Winter is Coming - Coming Storms Will Bring Out the Best and Worst in Humanity - 18th Apr 18
What Does it Take to Create Living Wage Jobs? - 18th Apr 18
Gold and Silver Buy Signals - 18th Apr 18
WINTER IS COMING - The Ongoing Fourth Turning Crisis Part2 - 18th Apr 18
A Stock Market Rally on Low Volume is NOT Bearish - 17th Apr 18
Three Gold Charts, One Big Gold Stocks Opportunity - 17th Apr 18
Crude Oil Price As Bullish as it Seems? - 17th Apr 18
A Good Time to Buy Facebook? - 17th Apr 18
THE Financial Crisis Acronym of 2008 is Sounding Another Alarm - 16th Apr 18
Bombs, Missiles and War – What to Expect Next from the Stock Market - 16th Apr 18
Global Debt Bubble Hits New All Time High – One Quadrillion Reasons To Buy Gold - 16th Apr 18
Will Bitcoin Ever Recover? - 16th Apr 18
Stock Market Futures Bounce, But Stopped at Trendline - 16th Apr 18
How To Profit As Oil Prices Explode - 16th Apr 18
Junior Mining Stocks are Close to Breaking Downtrend - 16th Apr 18
Look Inside a Caravan at UK Holiday Park for Summer 2018 - Hoseasons Cayton Bay Sea Side - 16th Apr 18
Stock Market More Weakness? How Much? - 15th Apr 18
Time for the Gold Bulls to Show their Mettle - 15th Apr 18
Trading Markets Amid Sound of Wars - 15th Apr 18
Sugar Commodity Buying Levels Analysis - 14th Apr 18
The Oil Trade May Be Coming Alive - 14th Apr 18
Big Cap US Stocks Fundamentals - 13th Apr 18
Jaguar Land Rover Cuts 1000 Jobs on Diesel Sales Slump, Long-term Discovery Sport Review - 13th Apr 18
Stock Market SPX May Tangle with the 50-day MA - 13th Apr 18
Longtanding Chinese War: Intrigue & Betrayal - 13th Apr 18
How I Own My Gold - 13th Apr 18
ISupply Energy Consumer Warning - Never Put Your Account Into Credit! - 13th Apr 18
SPX Resistance May Prompt A Massive Short Squeeze - 12th Apr 18
Stock Market High Volatility is Not Consistently Bearish for Stocks - 12th Apr 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Trading Lessons

Rotherham By-Election Result, Labour Sarah Champion Wins, UKIP 2nd, BNP 3rd

ElectionOracle / UK Politics Nov 29, 2012 - 07:34 PM GMT

By: N_Walayat

ElectionOracle

Labour's Sarah Champion held onto the Rotherham Seat on a sizeable majority, with the UKIP doing well to come 2nd, who benefited form a week of frenzy of reporting surrounding the Rotherham fostering scandal. Whilst the BNP surprised many by beating Respect into 3rd Place, though the facts are that the BNP candidate was the only person to actually reside in Rotherham, the rest resided from several miles to hundreds of miles away (Respect) which undoubtedly influenced voters at the ballot box.


Rotherham By-election Results

Party Candidate Votes % Share
Labour Sarah Champion 9,866 46.25%
UKIP Jane Collins 4,648 21.79%
BNP Marlene Guest 1,804 8.46%
Respect Yvonne Ridley 1,778 8.34%
Conservative Simon Wilson 1,157 5.42%
Ind Simon Copley 582 2.73%
Lib Dem Michael Beckett 451 2.11%
TUSC Ralph Dyson 261 1.22%
Ind Paul Dickson 51 0.24%
EDL Clint Bristow 29 0.14%

Turnout 33.8%, down from 59% at the 2010 general election (lost deposits).

Whilst the mainstream press reporting had built itself up into a frenzy of possible expectations for either Respect or UKIP winning the by-election from Labour, however the probable outcome had never remained in any doubt that it was near impossible for Labour to lose the Rotherham by-election during the Coalition Governments mid-term blues as the following articles illustrated.

24 Nov 2012 - Rotherham Election Frenzy, UKIP Fostering Scandal, Campaigning Gets Dirtier by the day

My recent analysis (Rotherham By-election Who Will Win?) concluded that given Labour's large majority of 10,500, and regardless of all of the mud that is flying around, Rotherham still remains a very safe Labour seat, that coupled with the mid-term unpopularity of the Coalition government implies less votes for the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives, which means that the probability still remains extremely high that Labour will win on Thursday, albeit with a much reduced majority.

22 Nov 2012 - Rotherham By-election Who Will Win? Hospice CEO, Journalist or a Priest?

Probability continues to strongly favour Labour's Sarah Champion winning the by-election by a sizeable margin, as the candidate who would probably be in the best interests of the people of Rotherham, Simon Copley, lacks a party machine that can go up against Labour's slick election machine, it remains to be see if Rotherham is in for an election surprise!

Therefore were I to put money on the by-election, I would put it on Labour to win.

14 Nov 2012 - Rotherham By-election Labour Elite Betrays Local People by Dictating Outside MP

Labour goes into the by-election with a strong 10,450 majority, so despite voter anger at having an outsider imposed upon them still has an huge unbridgeable advantage that is enhanced by Coalition Government mid-term blues. So probability strongly favours the Labour candidate winning the by-election, albeit with a smaller majority, because at the end of the day ALL of the other major parties are putting up candidates from outside of Rotherham with the most ridiculous being Respect who had to cross Hadrian's wall to find a candidate, how the hell is someone living in Scotland going to know what the day to day issues of people living in Rotherham are?

Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article37797.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2012 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of three ebook's - The Inflation Mega-Trend; The Interest Rate Mega-Trend and The Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 that can be downloaded for Free.

Stocks Stealth Bull Market Ebook DownloadThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend Ebook DownloadThe Inflation Mega-Trend Ebook Download

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 600 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules