Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.UK House Prices BrExit Crash NOT Likely Despite London Property Market Weakness - Nadeem_Walayat
2.BrExit Morning - New Dawn for Britain, Independence Day! - Nadeem_Walayat
3.LEAVE Wins EU Referendum - Sterling and FTSE Hit Hard, Pollsters, Bookies and Markets All WRONG! - Nadeem_Walayat
4.BrExit Implications for UK Stock Market, Sterling GBP, House Prices and UK Politics... - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Trading BrExit - Stocks, Bonds, Sterling, Opinion Polls, Bookmaker Odds and My Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
6.FTSE and Sterling Brexit Trading, Deconstruction of the EU Referendum Result - Nadeem_Walayat
7.UK Interest Rate Cut to 0.25% Imminent and More QE Money Printing - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Trading BrExit - British Pound Plunges, FTSE Stock Futures Slump on LEAVE Shock Referendum Win - Nadeem_Walayat
9.The Stock Market is Reading it Wrong! - Chris_Vermeulen
10.Breakouts Galore in Gold and Silver - Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Free Silver
Last 7 days
Soybean Commodity Price to Soar Again - 23rd July 16
SPX Stock Market Uptrend Continues - 23rd July 16
Gold And Silver – Debt Addiction Will Carry Precious Metals Higher, Guaranteed - 23rd July 16
Pokemon Go - How to Play, First Use, Balls, Stops, Catching Pokemon's... Great Excercise! - 23rd July 16
7 Signs That the Gold Market Remains Resilient - 23rd July 16
Basic Income in The Time of Crisis - 23rd July 16
Silver Bull Faces Correction - 22nd July 16
The Serious Warning No One’s Talking About - 22nd July 16
Stock Market Insight from Greed, Volatility, and Put/Call Ratio - 22nd July 16
What Will Happen To the Stock Market When Interest Rates Rise? - 22nd July 16
How to Escape the World’s Biggest Ponzi Scheme - 22nd July 16
Addicted to Debt - We Can’t Borrow from the Future Anymore - 21st July 16
Not Everything Is Bullish for Gold - 21st July 16
Don’t Get Sucked Back Into the Stock Market - The Big Picture Hasn’t Changed - 21st July 16
Silver – Caught Inside - 21st July 16
Forex: "The Markets Are Getting Exciting!" - 20th July 16
China Economic Troubles - Is Kyle Bass Finally Getting His Revenge? - 20th July 16
Why Lithium Will See Another Price Spike This Fall - 20th July 16
The Peak Oil Paradox Revisited - 19th July 16
SPX Challenges the Upper Trendline - 19th July 16
Missing ’28 Pages’ of the 9/11 Report Released into Blitzkrieg of World Events - 19th July 16
Likelihood of Organized Disruption at GOP Convention - 19th July 16
More on the ‘Breadth Thrust’ and Stock Market Internals - 19th July 16
FX Traders: Get a Free Week of Forecasts (Details inside) - 19th July 16
Ups and Downs in Gold and Crude Oil Price - 19th July 16
Keep an Eye on ‘Bitcoin’ as the Next ‘Financial Crisis’ Starts! - 18th July 16
Erdogan Might Have Known about the Coup but Didn’t Prevent It on Purpose - 18th July 16
More Deflation Ahead: Silver, Gold And Their Mining Stocks A Must-Have - 18th July 16
Stock Market Minor Top? - 18th July 16
5 Best Gold and Silver Junior Mining Stocks in 2016 - 17th July 16
Gold And Silver – NWO-Created Tragedies Will Never End, Seek Truth - 16th July 16
How Long Can Buybacks Continue To Support A Market Which Is Standing On A Fundamentally Flawed Premise? - 16th July 16
Will They Come For Your IRA? - 15th July 16
Gold’s Record Selling Overhang - 15th July 16
Capitalism Has Entered a New Era—and Historic Stock Market Investing Returns Are Gone Forever - 15th July 16
Gold Price Could Hit $5,000 or Even $10,000 in a Few Years - 15th July 16
Junior Gold and Silver Mining Funds or Individual Gold and Silver Mining Stocks - 15th July 16
The Soaring Risk of Flying in Bernanke's Helicopter - 15th July 16
The Broad Stock Market, Helicopters and Gold - 15th July 16
The Curious Case of Vanishing Lady Liberty; Only Gold and Silver Remember Her - 15th July 16

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Forex Forecasts

U.S. Boomer Demographics and the Unemployment Rate

Economics / Demographics Dec 16, 2012 - 11:52 AM GMT

By: Mike_Shedlock

Economics

A week ago in Startling Look at Job Demographics by Age I posted the following chart made with data that I downloaded from the St. Louis Fed.


Employment Demographics by Age Group

One person suggested the chart was "very misleading" because it did not properly reflect the aging workforce.

However, I did comment at the time 'Boomer demographics certainly explains "some" of this trend'.

I could not quantify the amount at the time because there was no civilian population data on the St. Louis Fed website (at least that I could find).

Since then, I asked my friend Tim Wallace to see what he could come up with, and with a few calls to the BLS he did get the population data from which we could make more accurate assessments. Here are the key comparisons.

2007 vs. Now for Age Group 25-54

•In 2007, the Civilian Noninstitutional Population for age group 25-54 was 125,978,000
•Currently the Civilian Noninstitutional Population for age group 25-54 is 124,248,000
•In 2007, Employment in age group 25-54 was 101,083,000
•Currently, Employment in age group 25-54 is 94,523,000
•Since 2007, the Civilian Noninstitutional Population for age 25-54 declined by 1,730,000
•Since 2007, Civilian Employment declined by 6,560,000

Quantification of "Some"

I can now quantify "some" more precisely: 279% of the decline in employment in age group 25-54 between 2007 and now is due to economic weakness as opposed to shifting demographic trends.

Here is a collection of interesting jobs charts by reader Tim Wallace.
click on any chart for sharper image

Civilian Population by Age Group

Percent of Work Force by Age Group

Participation Rate by Age Group

Work Force Percent Unemployed by Age Group

Percent of Work Force Employed by Age Group

Civilian Population Not Working by Age Group

Thanks Tim!

Definitions and Notes

•The participation rate is the ratio of the civilian labor force to the total noninstitutionalized civilian population 16 years of age and over.
•The noninstitutionalized civilian population consists of civilians not in prison, mental facilities, wards of the state, etc.
•The labor force consists of those who have a job or are seeking a job, are at least 16 years old, are not serving in the military and are not institutionalized.
•There are strict requirements on what constitutes "seeking a job". Reading want-ads or jobs on "Monster" does not count. One actually needs to apply for a job, go on an interview, or send in a resume.
•Please see Reader Question Regarding "Dropping Out of the Workforce" for an explanation of how the BLS determines someone is actively seeking a job.

The final chart above shows the number of people in each age group that is not working. Recall that, "not working" and "unemployed" are different things.

I would prefer a more simple definition of unemployment: those who want a job but do not have one. Instead, we have definitions that purposely mask (by many millions) the current sorry state of affairs.

By Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management . Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

Visit Sitka Pacific's Account Management Page to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

I do weekly podcasts every Thursday on HoweStreet and a brief 7 minute segment on Saturday on CKNW AM 980 in Vancouver.

When not writing about stocks or the economy I spends a great deal of time on photography and in the garden. I have over 80 magazine and book cover credits. Some of my Wisconsin and gardening images can be seen at MichaelShedlock.com .

© 2012 Mike Shedlock, All Rights Reserved.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Mike Shedlock Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife