Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Trend Forecast 2024 - 15th June 24
Gold Price Consolidating at High - 15th June 24
NVIDIA Stock Market: Price Prediction for the Future - 15th June 24
When Will the Boom/ Bust Rollercoaster End? - 15th June 24
Stock Market Trouble Lies Ahead. Are You Ready For It? - 15th June 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 8th June 24
S&P 494 Stocks Then & Now - 8th June 24
As Stocks Bears Begin To Hibernate, It's Now Time To Worry About A Bear Market - 8th June 24
Gold, Silver and Crypto | How Charts Look Before US Dollar Meltdown - 8th June 24
Gold & Silver Get Slammed on Positive Economic Reports - 8th June 24
Gold Summer Doldrums - 8th June 24
S&P USD Correction - 7th June 24
Israel's Smoke and Mirrors Fake War on Gaza - 7th June 24
US Banking Crisis 2024 That No One Is Paying Attention To - 7th June 24
The Fed Leads and the Market Follows? It's a Big Fat MYTH - 7th June 24
How Much Gold Is There In the World? - 7th June 24
Is There a Financial Crisis Bubbling Under the Surface? - 7th June 24
Bitcoin Trend Forecast, Crypto's Exit Strategy - 31st May 24
Zimbabwe Officials Already Looking to Inflate New Gold-Backed Currency - 31st May 24
India Silver Imports Have Already Topped 2023 Total - 31st May 24
Gold Has Done Its Job – Isn’t That Enough? - 31st May 24
Gold Stocks Catching Up - 31st May 24
Time to take the RED Pill - 28th May 24
US Economy Slowing Slipping into Recession, But Not There Yet - 28th May 24
Gold vs. Silver – Very Important Medium-term Signal - 28th May 24
Is Gold Price Heading to $2,275 - 2,280? - 28th May 24
Stocks Bull Market Smoking Gun - 25th May 24
Congress Moves against Totalitarian Central Bank Digital Currency Schemes - 25th May 24
Government Tinkering With Prices Is Like Hiding All of the Street Signs - 25th May 24
Gold Mid Tier Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 25th May 24
Why US Interest Rates are a Nothing Burger - 24th May 24
Big Banks Are Pressuring The Fed To Losen Protection For Depositors - 24th May 24
Another Bank Failure: How to Tell if Your Bank is At Risk - 24th May 24
AI Stocks Portfolio and Tesla - 23rd May 24
All That Glitters Isn't Gold: Silver Has Outperformed Gold During This Gold Bull Run - 23rd May 24
Gold and Silver Expose Stock Market’s Phony Gains - 23rd May 24
S&P 500 Cyclical Relative Performance: Stocks Nearing Fully Valued - 23rd May 24
Nvidia NVDA Stock Earnings Rumble After Hours - 22nd May 24
Stock Market Trend Forecasts for 2024 and 2025 - 21st May 24
Silver Price Forecast: Trumpeting the Jubilee | Sovereign Debt Defaults - 21st May 24
Bitcoin Bull Market Bubble MANIA Rug Pulls 2024! - 19th May 24
Important Economic And Geopolitical Questions And Their Answers! - 19th May 24
Pakistan UN Ambassador Grows Some Balls Accuses Israel of Being Like Nazi Germany - 19th May 24
Could We See $27,000 Gold? - 19th May 24
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 19th May 24
The Gold and Silver Ship Will Set Sail! - 19th May 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Where Are We In the Stocks Secular Bear Market 2013?

Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market Jan 08, 2013 - 12:47 PM GMT

By: Sy_Harding

Stock-Markets

It seems to only be when the market is in a cyclical bear market that the financial media remembers that a secular bear market began in 2000.

That is completely forgotten once a cyclical bull market, like the one we’re currently enjoying, comes along within the secular bear.


As the market again approaches its previous peaks of 2000 and 2007 this might be a more helpful time to remember that we are in a secular bear market, which requires an entirely different approach to investing.

First a reminder that a secular bull market is a long-term uptrend. Cyclical bear markets take place within it, but when they end, the long-term uptrend resumes to ever higher highs. They are wonderful times for buy & hold investors, since the market always comes back and goes on to those ever higher highs.

A secular bear market is a long-term sideways to down trend, in which periodic cyclical bull markets take place that carry the market up to previous peaks, but then the next cyclical bear market arrives that takes the gains away. Obviously a disastrous time for buy & hold investing, and a great period for market-timing.

The last 110 years can be clearly divided into three completed secular bull markets, and three completed secular bear markets, with a fourth secular bear currently underway since 2000.

The secular bear market that began in 2000 continues to track similarly to the secular bear markets of 1900-21, and 1966-82.

Here’s what we’ve been reminding our subscribers of lately, as the favorable season continues and we remain on a buy signal.

So far, we’ve seen the 13-year secular bear that began in 2000 follow the same typical pattern of previous secular bears.

And we’re well aware of the surrounding conditions that have placed similar severe imbalances on the economy as in those previous periods; the 2000-2002 market collapse, terrorist attacks, Iraq and Afghanistan wars, easy money policies, etc., which allowed only a market recovery back to the 2000 peak in 2007, when the housing bubble burst and led to the near total financial system collapse in 2008.

As in the 1970’s, it is taking unusual stimulus measures, record budget deficits and debt loads, to recover from the disastrous decade.

And though each step has resulted in slow recovery, it will take at least one more setback for the economy and market (probably caused by austerity measures to tackle the debt problem), before the secular bear ends.

We need to be aware of that as we continue to navigate the cyclical bull market within the secular bear market.

As in the 1970’s, the next cyclical bear is not likely to be as severe as the last two, and it will likely finally end the secular bear market, and usher in the next secular bull market.

And that next secular bull market will result in the Dow eventually reaching 50,000 and beyond, that many were predicting in 1999 was just ahead, (while in my 1999 book Riding the Bear – How to Prosper in the Coming Bear Market I was predicting that the worst bear market since the 1929 crash was right around the corner).

How can we be sure that once this secular bear ends and the next secular bull market begins the Dow will soar to 50,000 and above? Because in each of the secular bull markets of the last 110 years, the Dow has gained 500% to 1000%.

The problem for investors will be the number who have not handled the secular bear market well, have sworn off the market for good, are no longer paying attention, and will not be enticed to participate again until the next secular bull market has been underway for years and the easiest money has already been made. That is the history of investor behavior in the previous secular bear markets.

Sy Harding was just named by Timer Digest as #1 Gold Timer for 2012 (Gold Timer of the Year), and #2 Long-Term Stock Market Timer for 2012.

Sy Harding is president of Asset Management Research Corp., and editor of the free market blog Street Smart Post.

© 2013 Copyright Sy Harding- All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Sy Harding Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in