Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
This Invisible Tech Stock Threatens Amazon with 800,000+ Online Stores - 21st Nov 19
Crude Oil Price Begins To Move Lower - 21st Nov 19
Cracks Spread in the Precious Metals Bullion Banks’ Price Management System - 21st Nov 19
Why Record-High Stock Prices Mean You Should Buy More - 20th Nov 19
This Invisible Company Powers Almost the Entire Finance Industry - 20th Nov 19
Zig-Zagging Gold Is Not Necessarily Bearish Gold - 20th Nov 19
Legal Status of Cannabis Seeds in the UK - 20th Nov 19
The Next Gold Rush Could Be About To Happen Here - 20th Nov 19
China's Grand Plan to Take Over the World - 19th Nov 19
Interest Rates Heading Zero or Negative to Prop Up Debt Bubble - 19th Nov 19
Plethora of Potential Financial Crisis Triggers - 19th Nov 19
Trade News Still Relevant? - 19th Nov 19
Comments on Catena Media Q3 Report 2019 - 19th Nov 19
Venezuela’s Hyperinflation Drags On For A Near Record—36 Months - 18th Nov 19
Intellectual Property as the New Guild System - 18th Nov 19
Gold Mining Stocks Q3’ 2019 Fundamentals - 18th Nov 19
The Best Way To Play The Coming Gold Boom - 18th Nov 19
What ECB’s Tiering Means for Gold - 17th Nov 19
DOJ Asked to Examine New Systemic Risk in Gold & Silver Markets - 17th Nov 19
Dow Jones Stock Market Cycle Update and are we there yet? - 17th Nov 19
When the Crude Oil Price Collapses Below $40 What Happens? PART III - 17th Nov 19
If History Repeats, Gold is Headed to $8,000 - 17th Nov 19
All You Need To Know About Cryptocurrency - 17th Nov 19
What happens To The Global Economy If Oil Collapses Below $40 – Part II - 15th Nov 19
America’s Exceptionalism’s Non-intervention Slide to Conquest, Empire - and Socialism - 15th Nov 19
Five Gold Charts to Contemplate as We Prepare for the New Year - 15th Nov 19
Best Gaming CPU Nov 2019 - Budget, Mid and High End PC System Processors - 15th Nov 19
Lend Money Without A Credit Check — Is That Possible? - 15th Nov 19
Gold and Silver Capitulation Time - 14th Nov 19
The Case for a Silver Price Rally - 14th Nov 19
What Happens To The Global Economy If the Oil Price Collapses Below $40 - 14th Nov 19
7 days of Free FX + Crypto Forecasts -- Join in - 14th Nov 19
How to Use Price Cycles and Profit as a Swing Trader – SPX, Bonds, Gold, Nat Gas - 13th Nov 19
Morrisons Throwing Thousands of Bonus More Points at Big Spend Shoppers - JACKPOT! - 13th Nov 19
What to Do NOW in Case of a Future Banking System Breakdown - 13th Nov 19
Why China is likely to remain the ‘world’s factory’ for some time to come - 13th Nov 19
Gold Price Breaks Down, Waving Good-bye to the 2019 Rally - 12th Nov 19
Fed Can't See the Bubbles Through the Lather - 12th Nov 19
Double 11 Record Sales Signal Strength of Chinese Consumption - 12th Nov 19
Welcome to the Zombie-land Of Oil, Gold and Stocks Investing – Part II - 12th Nov 19
Gold Retest Coming - 12th Nov 19
New Evidence Futures Markets Are Built for Manipulation - 12th Nov 19
Next 5 Year Future Proof Gaming PC Build Spec November 2019 - Ryzen 9 3900x, RTX 2080Ti... - 12th Nov 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

$4 Billion Golden Oppoerunity

U.S. 30 Year Treasury Bonds – A Rally To Sell?

Interest-Rates / US Bonds Jul 01, 2013 - 06:53 PM GMT

By: Michael_Noonan

Interest-Rates

Trading opportunities arise every day, however, quality trades that offer an edge do not. We use developing market activity, as depicted in charts, to find trade potentials with a defined limited risk and greater reward potential. 30 Year Bonds appear to be advertising weakness and a shorting opportunity.

When seeking trades, we use the “If, Then,” approach. IF the market does this, THEN we do that. The latter is acted upon only if the former requirements are met. Following this scenario, there is no guesswork or predicting involved, and the emotional element is not in play, either. Discipline is required, but it leads to more profitable trading potentials, so it is worth the effort.


The first step is to put the market into a context, and that comes from assessing the higher, more controlling time frames. We start with the monthly..

The most important first step is to always identify the trend within the time frame under consideration. We look for synergy amongst all time frames to increase the odds of accomplishing a successful trade. From the clustering of closes top formation, a low was established in March, 4th bar from right, a lower swing high two bars later, in May, and another lower low, at the end of June. This is the simplest definition of a downtrend.

Chart comments explain the weakened structure for Bonds since the high. June, the last bar, retested support from 2011 and 2012 lows. The weekly is used to refine the bars.

The weekly shows more of a trading range, and the second to last week was a strong move down with a poor close, the market telling us sellers are in charge. But were they? Price declined into support, and leaving the channel put price into an oversold condition. As a consequence, there was no further downside follow-through, as the last weekly bar shows.

The last bar gives added confirmation that support is likely to hold, at least initially. Why? Note how small the range was and the position of the close. The smaller range tells us that buyers were present, not only preventing sellers from extending the market lower, but the high-end close lets us know buyers overwhelmed sellers’ efforts. That is important to know. If short, it would be a good reason to cover and stand aside. This is how to use the information from the market as the best and most reliable guide.

With the trend down, within a larger trading range, it becomes a personal choice of one’s trading skill[s] whether to trade from the long side at this support. We choose not to, and instead look for a weak rally to sell.

The last five bars on the daily comprise the last small bar from the weekly. While it looked like buyers were stopping sellers, it was more in the form of short-covering, after such a large drop in the weeks preceding. Short-covering is not the same as net new buying. In fact, the last five bars are relatively weak in an ability to rally higher, and that is what can be expected in a downtrend.

A rally against a wide-range down bar can meet resistance anywhere along the bar, from the low up to the high. The down arrow shows the high. However, bonds may run into resistance at where the mid-June swing low support was broken by that wide range bar. The dashed horizontal line from that swing low becomes future potential resistance.

What to look for, right now, is a weak rally. Small ranges up and less volume, relative to larger ranges down on stronger volume constitutes a weak rally, and they typically fail at an area of identified resistance.

If, then.

By Michael Noonan

http://edgetraderplus.com

Michael Noonan, mn@edgetraderplus.com, is a Chicago-based trader with over 30 years in the business. His sole approach to analysis is derived from developing market pattern behavior, found in the form of Price, Volume, and Time, and it is generated from the best source possible, the market itself.

© 2013 Copyright Michael Noonan - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Michael Noonan Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules