Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - 8th Apr 24
Gold Is Rallying Again, But Silver Could Get REALLY Interesting - 8th Apr 24
Media Elite Belittle Inflation Struggles of Ordinary Americans - 8th Apr 24
Profit from the Roaring AI 2020's Tech Stocks Economic Boom - 8th Apr 24
Stock Market Election Year Five Nights at Freddy's - 7th Apr 24
It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- 7th Apr 24
AI Revolution and NVDA: Why Tough Going May Be Ahead - 7th Apr 24
Hidden cost of US homeownership just saw its biggest spike in 5 years - 7th Apr 24
What Happens To Gold Price If The Fed Doesn’t Cut Rates? - 7th Apr 24
The Fed is becoming increasingly divided on interest rates - 7th Apr 24
The Evils of Paper Money Have no End - 7th Apr 24
Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - 3rd Apr 24
Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend - 2nd Apr 24
Dow Stock Market Annual Percent Change Analysis 2024 - 2nd Apr 24
Bitcoin S&P Pattern - 31st Mar 24
S&P Stock Market Correlating Seasonal Swings - 31st Mar 24
S&P SEASONAL ANALYSIS - 31st Mar 24
Here's a Dirty Little Secret: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Is Still Loose - 31st Mar 24
Tandem Chairman Paul Pester on Fintech, AI, and the Future of Banking in the UK - 31st Mar 24
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Did Putin Quietly Play the Debt Card Over Syria?

Politics / GeoPolitics Sep 29, 2013 - 10:26 AM GMT

By: Ron_Holland

Politics

"They are living beyond their means and shifting a part of the weight of their problems to the world economy. They are living like parasites off the global economy and their monopoly of the dollar. If [in America] there is a systemic malfunction, this will affect everyone. Countries like Russia and China hold a significant part of their reserves in American securities. There should be other reserve currencies." – Vladimir Putin in 2011


While I hate to give such praise to a foreign leader, Putin has undoubtedly run rings around the moribund and bureaucratic incompetence of the Laurel and Hardy-style Obama and Kerry team on Syria. Putin diplomatically has the swiftness and stealth of the South's Stonewall Jackson and Germany's Erwin Rommel, probably the two greatest military commanders in world history.

What Really Happened on the Night of Friday, August 30th?

"At one point last week in the charade known as 'the Syria peace negotiations', John Kerry, the US Secretary of State, announced solemnly, 'This is not a game.' Well, he was wrong there. This certainly is a game: the trouble is that Barack Obama is trying to pretend that it's chess, while Vladimir Putin plays hard-faced poker." – Janet Daley

My question is: What motivated the sudden, overnight change of mind by Obama himself seemingly only hours away from a military strike on al Assad and Syria? It appears to have caught his advisors and the military totally by surprise.

Yes, thanks to the Internet Reformation, the administration was not able to manipulate public opinion and the people and Congress were increasingly opposed to the minimal military action, though this has never stopped a Washington attack before. Even the powerful American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) efforts came to naught and the US backed down from the attack.

I believe both Russia and China covertly played the Treasury debt card in order to protect their client states, Syria and Iran, from the impending US invasion. An attack would undoubtedly have escalated with troops on the ground, opening the way for a land assault against Iran, the ultimate real target. After all, the gas pipeline for Washington's Sunni client states that even offering to pay for the military action is far less important than taking Iran down.

But Putin Always Wins

"Though fraud in all other actions be odious, yet in matters of war it is laudable and glorious, and he who overcomes his enemies by stratagem is as much to be praised as he who overcomes them by force." – Niccolo Machiavelli

If you follow Putin's career it is apparent that he overcomes difficulties often through strategy rather than direct force. I'll bet he has Machiavelli's The Prince in his personal library. Russia, China and Putin had a lot to lose if the US had engaged and been drawn into occupying Syria proper.

First, Iran would have been open for land invasion, as northern Iraq is under Kurdish control and the Kurds would have welcomed a US ground attack targeting Tabriz and northern Iran, freeing their brother Kurds there and helping to expand and create ultimately a Kurdistan state.

Second, this would put the American forces on the border of the former Soviet republics of Azerbaijan and Armenia, thus threatening Russian influence in the area.

Third, unlike the United States with hundreds of bases around the world, Russia has only one base outside the old Soviet republics and sphere of influence and this is a naval base in Tartus, Syria. The loss of this base would result in a tremendous decline of prestige and influence in the Arab world, a region where both Russia and China seek to gain influence to counter the American occupation and control of the oil and gas resources there.

My Scenario

"At this point, China owns approximately 1.275 trillion dollars of our debt, and Russia owns approximately 138 billion dollars of our debt." – Michael Snyder

Remember, national leaders never threaten other nations or leaders directly because all major political leaders and politicians require plausible deniability if things go wrong. They need the ability to deny blame, knowledge and responsibility for a failure but still have the opportunity to get the job done and when helpful take credit for a success or victory. Giving the responsibility for communication or action to a lower level bureaucracy or individual where instructions are verbal or inaccessible takes care of the problem.

Although I have no proof, I believe it is likely that financial intermediaries or lower level central banking contacts dropped the hint to their American counterparts that China and Russia were likely to begin liquidating Treasury obligations should Washington go ahead with it's planned military adventure against Syria.

This is best explained in Michael Snyder's September 6 article at The Economic Collapse, "Who Is Going To Buy Our Debt If This War Causes China, Russia And The Rest Of The World To Turn On Us?"

I would suggest that Putin's apparent last minute Chemical Weapons "deal" was just a face-saving gift for the Obama Administration in order to provide cover and a reasonable excuse for the sudden change of orders to halt the Syria attack. I'll also bet that this deal had been worked out long before it was offered to Obama. I will discuss more about Putin's Debt Card at the upcoming High Alert Investment Conference in October (see highalertconference.com).

Putin wins again. He gets the credit for stopping the US; Russia, as usual, never fires a shot and Washington retreats. You'll know whether I'm right on Putin playing the debt card if on occasion, with very important questions on global affairs and diplomacy, America begins to slowly retreat – as do all empires when they overreach economically and begin to decline militarily.

I'm sure Putin also reads Sun Tzu and his ancient Chinese military treatise, The Art of War, so read the two quotes below and tell me what you think.

"The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting."

"Build your opponent a golden bridge to retreat across."

In closing, a word of advice to Obama and the elites of both the Democrat and Republican parties: You play poker with Vladimir Putin at your peril and that of our nation.

Ron Holland [send him mail], a retirement consultant, works in Zurich and is a co-editor of the Swiss Mountain Vision Newsletter. He is the CEO of Biologix Hair Inc., providing a revolutionary way to regrow your natural hair with the Biologix Hair Therapy System™.

© 2013 Copyright Ron Holland - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Ron Holland Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in