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Dramatic Slowdown in Germany: Saxo Bank Analysis

Stock-Markets / Germany Nov 24, 2013 - 03:38 PM GMT

By: Mike_Shedlock

Stock-Markets

Saxo Bank chief economist Steen Jakobsen had some interesting comments on Germany and German exports given a slowdown in China and a rising Euro.

To help put things in perspective, here is a chart on the Euro.


Technical analysts will point out this is a bearish break of the trendline, thus the euro may be headed lower.

Fundamentally, the chart reflects an unexpected rate cut by ECB president Mario Draghi as well as statements by various ECB members regarding the possibility of negative interest rates.

Let's continue the fundamental view as presented by Steen Jakobsen.

Expect Dramatic Germany Slowdown

Via email, Steen writes ...

The German economy is heavily exposed to global growth which we see dramatically slowing down - the strong EURO will impact export 5-7 month from now which creates dramatic slow-down where we even could see the German economy going below 1% growth and come close to recession.

Our Economy-Physics models sees slow-down for the next three to six-month then small rebound before dramatic slow-down in tail-end of 2014 - overall the German GDP will be challenged.

German industry and its consumer is increasingly becoming uncompetitive through one of the worst energy policies in Europe. Right now German companies (Read: BMW and Daimler) are either already moving or about to move jobs to mainly the US due to steep rises in energy cost.

The new coalition furthermore wants to pursue less flexible labor market model to "reset" inequality. Nice top line effort wrong method.

Finally, the European economy is almost perfect symmetrical in its peaks and valleys: (Source: Bloomberg LLP & Citigroup CESI Index)

Eurozone Symmetry

I agree with the viewpoint stated by Steen.

For further discussion and analysis, please see ...


By Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management . Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

Visit Sitka Pacific's Account Management Page to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

I do weekly podcasts every Thursday on HoweStreet and a brief 7 minute segment on Saturday on CKNW AM 980 in Vancouver.

When not writing about stocks or the economy I spends a great deal of time on photography and in the garden. I have over 80 magazine and book cover credits. Some of my Wisconsin and gardening images can be seen at MichaelShedlock.com .

© 2013 Mike Shedlock, All Rights Reserved.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

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