Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Market 2020 vs 2016 and 2012 - 22nd Nov 20
Gold & Silver - Adapting Dynamic Learning Shows Possible Upside Price Rally - 22nd Nov 20
Stock Market Short-term Correction - 22nd Nov 20
Stock Market SPY/SPX Island Setups Warn Of A Potential Reversal In This Uptrend - 21st Nov 20
Why Budgies Make Great Pets for Kids - 21st Nov 20
How To Find The Best Dry Dog Food For Your Furry Best Friend?  - 21st Nov 20
The Key to a Successful LGBT Relationship is Matching by Preferences - 21st Nov 20
Stock Market Dow Long-term Trend Analysis - 20th Nov 20
Margin: How Stock Market Investors Are "Reaching for the Stars" - 20th Nov 20
World’s Largest Free-Trade Pact Inspiration for Global Economic Recovery - 20th Nov 20
Dating Sites Break all the Stereotypes About Distance - 20th Nov 20
THE STOCK MARKET BIG PICTURE - Video - 19th Nov 20
Reasons why Bitcoin is Treading at it's Highest Level Since 2017 and a Warning - 19th Nov 20
Media Celebrates after Trump’s Pro-Gold Fed Nominee Gets Blocked - 19th Nov 20
DJIA Short-term Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 19th Nov 20
Demoncracy Ushers in the Flu World Order How to Survive and Profit From What Is Coming - 19th Nov 20
US Bond Market: "When Investors Should Worry" - 18th Nov 20
Gold Remains the Best Pandemic Insurance - 18th Nov 20
GPU Fan Not Spinning FIX - How to Easily Extend the Life of Your Gaming PC System - 18th Nov 20
Dow Jones E-Mini Futures Tag 30k Twice – Setting Up Stock Market Double Top - 18th Nov 20
Edge Computing Is Leading the Next Great Tech Revolution - 18th Nov 20
This Chart Signals When Gold Stocks Will Explode - 17th Nov 20
Gold Price Momentous ally From 2000 Compared To SPY Stock Market and Nasdaq - 17th Nov 20
Creating Marketing Campaigns Using the Freedom of Information Act - 17th Nov 20
ILLEGITIMATE PRESIDENT - 17th Nov 20
Stock Market Uptrend in Process - 17th Nov 20
How My Friend Made $128,000 Investing in Stocks Without Knowing It - 16th Nov 20
Free-spending Biden and/or continued Fed stimulus will hike Gold prices - 16th Nov 20
Top Cheap Budgie Toys - Every Budgie Owner Should Have These Safe Bird Toys! - 16th Nov 20
Line Up For Your Jab to get your Covaids Freedom Pass and a 5% Work From Home Tax - 16th Nov 20
You May Have Overlooked These “Sleeper” Precious Metals - 16th Nov 20
Demystifying interesting facts about online Casinos - 16th Nov 20
What's Ahead for the Gold Market? - 15th Nov 20
Gold’s Momentous Rally From 2000 Compared To Stock Market SPY & QQQ - 15th Nov 20
Overclockers UK Quality of Custom Gaming System Build - OEM Windows Sticker? - 15th Nov 20
UK GCSE Exams 2021 CANCELLED! Grades Based on Mock Exams and Teacher Assessments - 15th Nov 20
Global "Debt Mountain": Beware of This "New Peak" - 13th Nov 20
Overclocking Zen 3 Ryzen 5600x, 5800x, 5900x and 5950x to 4.7ghz All Cores Cinebench R20 Scores - 13th Nov 20
Is Silver Leading Bitcoin or is Bitcoin Leading Silver? - 13th Nov 20
How Elliott Waves Simplify Your Technical Analysis - 13th Nov 20
How to buy Bitcoins using debit/credit card? - 13th Nov 20
Will COVID Vaccine Kill Gold and Silver? - 12th Nov 20
Access to Critical Market Reports - 12th Nov 20
Stock Market Dow Futures Reach 30,000 on News of COVID-19 Vaccine Trials Success - 12th Nov 20
8 Terms & Conditions You Must Know Before Asking For Life Insurance Policy Quotes - 12th Nov 20
Gold Stocks Post 2020 US Election Outlook - 11th Nov 20
Champions’ League Group Stage Draw: All You Need To Know - 11th Nov 20
Stock Market Secular Trend - 11th Nov 20
Stock Market Correction Curtailed by US Election - 11th Nov 20
What Causes a Financial Bubble? - 11th Nov 20
Ryzen 9 5900X RTX 3080 - Scan.co.uk vs Overclockers.co.uk UK Custom PC System Builder Review - 10th Nov 20
Killing Driveway Weeds FAST with a Pressure Washer - Saving Block Paving from LOTS of WEEDs - 10th Nov 20
Trump Fired, Biden Hired, What Next?  - 10th Nov 20
Looking for a Personal Loan? Here Is What You Have To Know  - 10th Nov 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

Bitcoin Mania Bubble Bursts, China Triggers Price Crash Start, Technical Forecast

Currencies / Bitcoin Dec 05, 2013 - 12:03 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Currencies

The bitcoin bubble appears to have burst as a stepped series of price crashes are underway with the price currently standing at 1074 down form 1240 barely a day earlier. A clue to its future direction can be discerned from the unfolding technical price patterns, that just as I wrote wrote in the run up to the peak of the Bitcoin bubble with the price converging on USD 1250 that the market was primed to crash and all it was waiting for was any even marginally negative news to act as trigger for increasing waves of market panics as GREED amongst the bitcoin mania hoarders turns into fear of loss of paper profits.


The signs of what to follow were clear as just as the bitcoin price was bid up into a bubble frenzy, so was the mainstream media's coverage which in the UK culminated with the story of the bitcoin miner having lost a hoard that was valued at more than £5million when he dumped an old hard drive in the bin as I wrote at the time and warned of bitcoins being nothing more than a ponzi scheme where my highly timely advise was for bitcoin holders to get out IMMMEDIATLY!

29 Nov 2013 - Bank of England UK Housing Market Bubble Panic is Mark Carney Playing Game of Thrones

Bitcoins the Real Tulip Mania Bubble Ponzi Scheme

Whilst many mistakenly focus on UK housing market as being in a bubble a real tulip mania-esk bubble primed to burst is taking place in bitcoins, as the price continues to explode into the stratosphere that the mainstream media illustrated by way of the human story of how one bitcoin miner threw away his hard drive that reportedly contained 7,500 bitcoins that at today's market price would be worth over £5 million.

The bitcoin miner, James Howells was shown at the rubbish tip where his hard drive lies buried under tens of metres of compacted refuse leaving James to ponder that even if he could find the hard drive, would it have survived several months under a wet rotting mountain of waste.

Off course the reason why he did not pay that much attention to the fortune that resided on his dumped hard drive was because when he threw it away the value was far, far less than 1/20th of today's price, with little media attention at the time to remind him of its potential value which has seen the Bitcoin USD price rise from about $14 at the start of the year to more than $1200 today.

Though throwing away £200k valuation of a couple of months ago was still a pretty dumb thing to do, which reflects the truth of the Bitcoin tulip mania as James had mined his bitcoins (solving blocks, the complexity and processing power needed is constantly increasing in response to increasing supply) several years earlier using his personal computer, and that all they were actually worth at the time was marginally more than the cost of the electricity expended, so no more than perhaps £50 rather than today's £5 million valuation.

So take this as a warning to all those who have been piling into the Bitcoin tulip mania (mostly gullible chinese investors trying to hide their wealth from their corrupt chinese communist party controlled government ) need to realise that the real value of bitcoins is near 1/100,000 of the current price and therefore the potential losses they WILL suffer when this i-bubble bursts will far exceed a 99% loss! AND IT WILL BURST as soon as any of the bitcoin hoarders who mined vast stock piles during the early years try to offload their holdings, an event which is probably imminent if not already underway as you read this article.

As was the case for the original Tulip Mania, following the bursting of the bubble Bitcoins will soon be forgotten and so will the craze for all peer to peer i-currencies, as the bottom line is that bitcoins never matched the hype for transactions are NOT anonymous and it IS heavily manipulated by a handful of mining pools so is not decentralised as today ordinary people cannot muster the processing power required to mine for bitcoins.

The bottom line is that bitcoins are a pyramid ponzi scheme where those who got in early win, whilst everyone else loses. If you own bitcoins then you should get out IMMEDIATELY!

China Triggering Event - The Emperor Has No Clothes!

Today (this morning) the bitcoin mania got its triggering event which was the announcement that China was banning financial institutions from transacting in bitcoins stating that the digital currency does not have any real meaning and lacks legal protections just after China Telecom and Baidu had announced that they would start accepting bitcoins as payments.

This prompted the chinese bitcoin price crash by near 30% before recovering to stand 13% down.

This time China may be right, the unregulated bitcoins market is wide open to a whole plethora of crimes not just the traditional activities such as enabling purchase of illegal drugs and goods, or the scams, fraud's and theft such as hacking of bitcoin holdings / transactions and fake investment firms that vanish with your bitcoin investments, but also the whole ethos of mining behind bitcoins supply encourages malware and virus crime such as the use of botnets that steal the processing power of hundreds of thousands of infected computers to mine for bitcoins.

What's Next for Bitcoins

A quick technical review of the charts implies that a double top pattern is being formed which is a warning that the bounce from the neckline is not something that bitcoin holders should put much hope into for the price is likely to reverse within days to break the neckline and retrace all the way down to at least 500 (current 1074), which is more than a 50% drop of the last price and a 60% drop from the high.

Longer term my view remains that bitcoins could lose as much as 99% of their value, so following a 60% crash, don't be seduced into the buying opportunity sales pitch that you will hear much about, no matter how hard the price bounces following the crash it will as the bitcoin longer term history illustrates just mark the initial phase of a prolonged price collapse towards 1/99th of its trading high or about 15, at which point even I would consider a speculative buy.

Charts courtesy of http://bitcoincharts.com

Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article43420.html

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2013 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of four ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series.that can be downloaded for Free.

The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 600 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules