Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
The Big Short 2020 – World Pushes Credit/Investments Into Risk Again - 11th Jul 20
The Bearish Combination of Soaring Silver and Lagging GDX Miners - 11th Jul 20
Stock Market: "Relevant Waves Vs. Irrelevant News" - 10th Jul 20
Prepare for the global impact of US COVID-19 resurgence - 10th Jul 20
Golds quick price move increases the odds of a correction - 10th Jul 20
Declaring Your Independence from Currency Debasement - 10th Jul 20
Tech Stocks Trending Towards the Quantum AI EXPLOSION! - 9th Jul 20
Gold and Silver Seasonal Trend Analysis - 9th Jul 20
Facebook and IBM Tech Stocks for Machine Learning Mega-Trend Investing 2020 - 9th Jul 20
LandRover Discovery Sport Service Blues, How Long Before Oil Change is Actually Due? - 9th Jul 20
Following the Gold Stock Leaders as the Fed Prints - 9th Jul 20
Gold RESET Breakout on 10 Reasons - 9th Jul 20
Fintech facilitating huge growth in online gambling - 9th Jul 20
Online Creative Software Development Service Conceptual Approach - 9th Jul 20
Coronavirus Pandemic UK and US Second Waves, and the Influenza Doomsday Scenario - 8th Jul 20
States “On the Cusp of Losing Control” and the Impact on the Economy - 8th Jul 20
Gold During Covid-19 Pandemic and Beyond - 8th Jul 20
UK Holidays 2020 - Driving on Cornwall's Narrow Roads to Bude Caravan Holiday Resort - 8th Jul 20
Five Reasons Covid Will Change SEO - 8th Jul 20
What Makes Internet Packages Different? - 8th Jul 20
Saudi Arabia Eyes Total Dominance In Oil And Gas Markets - 7th Jul 20
These Are the Times That Call for Gold - 7th Jul 20
A Reason to be "Extra-Attentive" to Stock Market Sentiment Measures - 7th Jul 20
The Beatings Will Continue Until the Economy Improves - 6th Jul 20
The Corona Economic Depression Is Here - 6th Jul 20
Stock Market Short-term Peaking - 6th Jul 20
Gold’s Major Reversal to Create the “Handle” - 5th July 20
Gold Market Manipulation And The Federal Reserve - 5th July 20
Overclockers UK Custom Build PC Review - 1. Ordering / Stock Issues - 5th July 20
How to Bond With Your Budgie / Parakeet With Morning Song and Dance - 5th July 20
Silver Price Trend Forecast Summer 2020 - 3rd Jul 20
Silver Market Is at a Critical Juncture - 3rd Jul 20
Gold Stocks Breakout Not Confirmed Yet - 3rd Jul 20
Coronavirus Strikes Back. But Force Is Strong With Gold - 3rd Jul 20
Stock Market Russell 2000 Gaps Present Real Targets - 3rd Jul 20
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Big Pharma Stock for Machine Learning Life Extension Investing - 2nd Jul 20
All Eyes on Markets to Get a Refreshed Outlook - 2nd Jul 20
The Darkening Clouds on the Stock Market S&P 500 Horizon - 2nd Jul 20
US Fourth Turning Reaches Boiling Point as America Bends its Knee - 2nd Jul 20
After 2nd Quarter Economic Carnage, the Quest for Philippine Recovery - 2nd Jul 20
Gold Completes Another Washout Rotation – Here We Go - 2nd Jul 20
Roosevelt 2.0 and ‘here, hold my beer' - 2nd Jul 20
U.S. Dollar: When Almost Everyone Is Bearish... - 1st Jul 20
Politicians Prepare New Money Drops as US Dollar Weakens - 1st Jul 20
Gold Stocks Still Undervalued - 1st Jul 20
High Premiums in Physical Gold Market: Scam or Supply Crisis? - 1st Jul 20
US Stock Markets Enter Parabolic Price Move - 1st Jul 20
In The Year 2025 If Fiat Currency Can Survive - 30th Jun 20
Gold Likes the IMF Predicting a Deeper Recession - 30th Jun 20
Silver Is Still Cheap For Now - 30th Jun 20
More Stock Market Selling Ahead - 30th Jun 20
Trending Ecommerce Sites in 2020 - 30th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching the Precipice - 29th Jun 20
APPLE Tech Stock for Investing to Profit from the Machine Learning Mega trend - 29th Jun 20
Student / Gamer Custom System Build June 2020 Proving Impossible - Overclockers UK - 29th Jun 20
US Dollar with Ney and Gann Angles - 29th Jun 20
Europe's Banking Sector: When (and Why) the Rout Really Began - 29th Jun 20
Will People Accept Rampant Inflation? Hell, No! - 29th Jun 20
Gold & Silver Begin The Move To New All-Time Highs - 29th Jun 20
US Stock Market Enters Parabolic Price Move – Be Prepared - 29th Jun 20
Meet BlackRock, the New Great Vampire Squid - 28th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching a Defining Moment - 28th Jun 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

AI Stocks 2020-2035 15 Year Trend Forecast

U.S. Dollar Remains Mixed

Currencies / US Dollar Feb 17, 2014 - 05:49 PM GMT

By: Nadia_Simmons

Currencies

The U.S. currency was little changed near recent lows against major currencies as U.S. markets are shut for the President’s Day holiday and trade volumes remain thin. Nevertheless, it’s worth noting that the greenback declined to a four-year low against the British pound earlier today. What is the current outlook for major currency pairs? We invite you to read our today's Forex Trading Alert.


In our opinion the following forex trading positions are justified - summary:

  • EUR/USD: none
  • GBP/USD: none
  • USD/JPY: none
  • USD/CAD: none
  • USD/CHF: none
  • AUD/USD: none

EUR/USD

Looking at the above chart, we see that the situation has improved slightly earlier today as EUR/USD extended gains and approached the Jan.24 high (and also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement based on the entire Dec.-Feb. decline). As you see on the daily chart, this resistance zone is reinforced by the upper line of the rising trend channel (marked with orange). Taking this fact into account, and combining with the current position of the indicators, it seems that a correction is just around the corner.

Very short-term outlook: bullish
Short-term outlook: mixed
MT outlook: mixed
LT outlook: bearish

Trading position (short-term): In our opinion no positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective at the moment. However, if  the exchange rate invalidates breakouts above the orange declining line and the upper line of the declining trend channel, we will likely consider opening short positions.

GBP/USD

Quoting our last Forex Trading Alert:
 
(…) GBP/USD extended gains and (…) broke above the upper border of the rising wedge, which is a strong bullish signal. However, the space for further growth seems limited- especially when we factor in the proximity to the orange resistance line and the current position of the indicators (the RSI reached the level of 70 and two other indicators are overbought). Taking this facts into account, it seems that a pause or a pullback is just around the corner.

As you see on the above chart, GBP/USD moved higher once again and even broke above the medium-term orange resistance line. However, this improvement was only temporarily and the pair slipped below this major resistance line earlier today. Despite this drop, the exchange rate still remains above the previous high and well above the upper border of the rising wedge, which supports buyers. However, if the pair invalidates the breakout and drops below the lower border of the rising wedge, we will likely see further deterioration.

Very short-term outlook: bullish
Short-term outlook: mixed with bullish bias
MT outlook: mixed
LT outlook: mixed

Trading position (short-term): In our opinion no positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective. Nevertheless, if the pair declines below the lower border of the rising wedge, we will consider opening short positions.

USD/JPY

Although the situation has deteriorated earlier today as USD/JPY extended declines and slipped below last Friday low, the pair rebounded and still remains in a narrow range (marked with yellow). On one hand, we may see further improvement and an upswing to the upper border of the consolidation range. On the other hand, when we take a closer look at the position of the indicators, we see that they still support sellers. So, another attempt to move lower should not surprise us.

Very short-term outlook: mixed
Short-term outlook: mixed with bearish bias
MT outlook: bullish
LT outlook: bearish

Trading position (short-term): In our opinion, the situation is too unclear to go short or long at the moment. So, in our opinion no positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

USD/CAD

Looking at the above chart, we see that the situation hasn’t changed much as USD/CAD remains in a narrow range slightly above the Jan.22 low. Therefore, what we wrote in our last Forex Trading Alert remains up-to-date also today.

(…) at this point, we should consider two scenarios. If this support level encourages buyers to act, we will likely see another comeback to the consolidation range (marked with blue). However, if it is broken and the exchange rate closes the day below the Jan.22 low, it will likely trigger a decline to 1.0904 (the Jan. 16 low) or even to a strong support zone created by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (based on the entire Sept.-Jan. rally), the lower border of the trend channel, the Jan. 13 low and the 2010 high.

Very short-term outlook: mixed
Short-term outlook: mixed
MT outlook: bullish
LT outlook: bearish

Trading position (short-term): From today’s point of view, even if the pair extended losses, the lower border of the trend channel will likely stop further deterioration. Therefore, in our opinion opening short positions is not justified from the risk/reward perspective.

USD/CHF

Looking at the above chart, we see that USD/CHF extended declines and dropped below the January low once again. However, similarly to what we saw on Friday, this support level encouraged buyers to act and the pair rebounded. With this upswing, the exchange rate came back above the short-term declining support line (marked with blue), which is a positive signal (especially when we factor in a positive divergence between the CCI and the exchange rate). Nevertheless, we should still keep in mind what we wrote in our last Forex Trading Alert:

(…) a drop below the lower border of the triangle may trigger further deterioration and the downside target for the pattern would be around the December low (…) if the short-term declining support line is successfully broken, we will likely see a drop (…) even to a support zone created by the 76.4%, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels (based on the Dec.-Jan. rally) and the 76.4%, 78.6% Fibonacci projections (marked with a green rectangle on the above chart).

Very short-term outlook: bearish
Short-term outlook: mixed
MT outlook: bearish
LT outlook: bearish

Trading position (short-term): Even if the pair drops below the January low once again, the space for further declines seems limited. Therefore, in our opinion opening short positions after such drop is not a good idea from the risk/reward perspective.

AUD/USD

As you see on the above chart, AUD/USD extended gains and hit a fresh monthly high earlier today. Despite this increase, the pair still remains below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, which serves as major resistance at the moment. From today’s point of view, we see that the current correction is similar to the previous one, which means that the very short-term uptrend is not threatened at the moment. Nevertheless, the current position of the indicators suggests that a bigger pullback is just around the corner.

Very short-term outlook: mixed
Short-term outlook: mixed with bullish bias
MT outlook: bearish
LT outlook: bearish

Trading position (short-term): In our opinion, if the pair drops below the February 10 low, we might consider opening short positions. However, as long as AUD/USD remains between above this level and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, in our opinion no positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

Thank you.

Nadia Simmons

Sunshine Profits‘ Contributing Author

Oil Investment Updates
Oil Trading Alerts

* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Nadia Simmons and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Nadia Simmons and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Nadia Simmons is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Nadia Simmons’ reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Nadia Simmons, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules