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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Donetsk Crimea 2.0 - Russia Ukraine Invasion and Annexation Before End of May 2014

Politics / Eastern Europe Apr 08, 2014 - 12:38 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Politics

Czar Putin having finished digesting Crimea being a mere entree of the main meal ahead that could ultimately seek to devour as much as 50% of Ukraine's original land mass, whilst the mainstream media's attention remains diverted by the likes of the irrelevant Oscar Pistorius court case, another expenses fiddling MP or the search for Flight MH370. However Putin's dark totalitarian forces have been quietly busy preparing the facts on the ground for a re-run of a Crimea style theft of territory enabling Russia to rip several more pounds of flesh off of Ukraine's body.


For over 2 months now Russian military forces totaling over 200,000 troops with heavy equipment have remained massed on Ukraine's eastern borders under the guise of military exercises that acts to keep a weak Ukrainian state in a perpetual state of fear of the consequences of engaging in any military engagements against the european regional super power that follows Czar Putin's evaluations of the lack of reactions to the annexation of Crimea following the bogus referendum.

The annexation of Crimea worked out far better than even the dictator of Russia expected it could have with virtually no reaction of any significance from the West nor any reaction on the ground in terms of armed resistance or spill over into Russia's own borders as the independence referendum engineered in Crimea has been repeatedly denied at the barrel of several thousand Russian tank turrets within the Russian federation that has seen hundreds of thousands killed in annexed nation states such as Chechnya.

My series of articles on what to first expect for Crimea and then much of South and East Ukraine of a programme for the systematic dismemberment of Ukraine which has at each stage been met by many skeptical in a state of denial comments as to what was probable -

21 Feb 2014 - Ukraine 2014, Britain 2016, Scottish Independence Could Trigger Balkanisation of UK

What was unimaginable a few weeks ago has now become a crisis situation of mounting deaths, where with each death Ukraine takes a further step towards leaping over the edge of and into the abyss of where the likes of Syria stands today, as the consequence of what happens when nations rip themselves apart.

Ukraine tearing itself apart has huge implications for european stability as the conflict risks sparking unrest in bordering states most of which have their own separatists movements, especially Russia which therefore looks set to intervene militarily.

Yuriy 23 Feb 14, 12:18 Ukraine vs UK

There will be no break-up in Ukraine.

Civil war is not possible, as people either support opposition, or do not support regime.

You cannot compare Ukraine and UK. The better comparison is UK and Russia: 2 ex-empires built on blood of others. Well, UK is like Russia in maybe 50-80 years. Scotland and England is like a little example of Russia and Ukraine.

The best way out of Scotland is to separate from UK but stay in EU. No much will change. This will be yet another stimulus for England to stay in EU ;-)

Nadeem_Walayat 24 Feb 14, 07:28 Ukraine vs Uk vs Syria

three years ago....

There will be no break-up in Syria.

Civil war is not possible, as people either support opposition, or do not support regime.

Sorry Ukraine is inherently more unstable than the UK, though yes Scottish Independence would open a Pandora's box in the UK.

Best

NW

AndrewD 21 Mar 14, 21:03 Ukraine Your Wrong.

When Putin fails to annex any more of the Ukraine, make sure you come out and tell us why you called it wrong.

Andrew D.

Nadeem_Walayat 21 Mar 14, 22:08 East Ukraine Next

Once Putin has finished digesting Crimea i.e. removed all Ukranian troops from their bases then he WILL next snack on East Ukraine!

Best

My last article reiterated Czar Putin's intension's to annex much of Ukraine - 16 Mar 2014 - Crimea, Ukraine War, Czar Putin Tightening Grip Over Police State Russia for New Dynasty

What Will Happen Next?

Where Russia is concerned if Crimea can breakaway from Ukraine then so should Chechnya be allowed to breakaway from Russia, for Chechnya was independant following the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991, having successfully beaten the Russian army during the 1994-1996 war until the second Chechen war starting in 1999 that flattened the Capital city Grozny and most of the the rest of Chechnya into submission, killing about 17% of the Chechen population. That is what it means to attempt to gain Independence from Putin's Russia.

Therefore Russia's actions in Chechnya will likely act as a blueprint for what lies in store for much of Ukraine, it's capital will likely come to resemble the Grozny rubble of 10 years ago. For the truth is that Putin and his secret police henchmen could not careless about sanctions for they are immune from their consequences as they could not care less if the Russian people suffer. The Russian people too will have suffered far greater hardships in past decades than which a few billion dollars of sanctions will achieve.

All that sanctions will achieve is for Putin's regime to consider that now it has nothing to lose so will seek to redraw most of Russia's western borders with former Soviet states such as the Baltic nations, any neighbouring states with significant number of ethnic Russian's or Russian speakers will be on the target list.

As things stand it does not look as though the West is going to do anything to stop Russia from annexing Crimea which WILL set in motion the annexation of many more bordering regions far beyond that of Ukraine.

Time-Line for Annexation of South Ukraine

The Donetsk russian rebels announcing an independence referendum to be held on 11th May sets a time-line for the deadline for the next annexation of Ukraine which will be with or without the consent of the local people i.e. the people of eastern Ukraine only have the choice of either a relatively bloodless annexation Crimea style or a bloody annexation following an estimated one hundred thousand Russian troops flooding over the border that will undoubtedly prompt at least limited resistance from Ukrainian military forces.

If anything the time line for invasion and annexation could be greatly accelerated as Russia attempts to repeat the Crimea blue print of a lightening land grab followed by bogus referendums of not just East Ukraine but the whole of the South Ukraine where the military occupation aspects could be completed within a matter of days. This is because in strategic terms to create a viable state from Moldavia Trans-Dniester in the west through Crimea in the middle, and all the way to the eastern border with Russia, then so would all of this area of Ukraine need to be physically connected hence why the land grab would include the whole of South Ukraine and not just the eastern bordering regions as I originally warned of in Mid February.

However, it is inconceivable that the theft of South Ukraine would be bloodless, as the latest news illustrates of attempts by the Ukrainian authorities to seize back buildings from separatists in East Ukraine.

The bottom line is that Czar Putin does not care about how many thousands of civilians or solider's would die, all he cares about is that would he be able to get away with it ? And the answer he got from Crimea 1.0 was YES.

Independant Scotland?

Similarly, this is what would soon happen to an Independant Scotland following a vote for Independence.

Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article45131.html

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2014 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of four ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series.that can be downloaded for Free.

The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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