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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Sheffield, Rotherham Temporary House Prices Crash Triggered by New Roma Ghetto's

Housing-Market / Sheffield May 23, 2014 - 05:18 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Housing-Market

Whilst a house prices boom is underway in much of the country and not just London's white hot property market but also in much of Yorkshire with strong demand from buyers pushing house prices in cities such as Leeds to nudge above a 10% annual house price inflation rate, instead asking prices in Sheffield, and its poorer neighbouring cousin Rotherham have instead plunged back into the red with Sheffield at an average of -2% and Rotherham at -3%.


Sheffield's average rate of -2% masks a concentrated house prices crash in several areas of the city that are seeing a continuing large influx of Roma migrants that to date totals more than 8,000, which is sparking an exodus of the resident population towards other areas of the city the effect of which is for sharp falls in asking prices of as much as 20% in area's heavily impacted by Roma migrants such as the Page Hall, whilst areas as little as 3 miles distance are witnessing price rises of oover 10% per annum i.e. a boom.

My earlier article of Mid January warned of the potential consequences of out of control immigration that sowed the seeds for the potential for a summer of disturbances during 2014 to take place across much of north and central Sheffield as illustrated by the below excerpt -

17 Jan 2014 - Sheffield Roma Riots 2014 Warns Labour MP David Blunkett - Immigration Cultural Catastrophe

Where Sheffield is concerned the following map highlights the possible high risk riot hot spots as a consequence of out of control immigration and the cultural catastrophe that could reach its ultimate consequences during the Summer of 2014.

Sheffield's landlords have been flagging warnings of what is taking place in areas of Sheffield for the whole of 2013 that looks set to intensify during 2014. Where many landlords have expressed their negative experiences with Roma and some other eastern european tenants who will say anything to gain a privately rented property by offering to pay higher rents and paying for several months up front, but then the experience is that no further payments are made where the Roma / Romanian tenants give the story that they have lost their jobs and then refuse to leave properties as Landlords are forced to go through the lengthy eviction process that usually results in the return of a wrecked property with inability to gain recompense from the former tenants who have moved on to their next target leaving behind wrecked properties littering the deprived areas of the city with debris and open to crime and further anti-social behaviour.

The consequences of which are manifesting themselves in a house prices crash in many areas as those that can move out are increasingly acting to do so by dropping their asking prices sharply lower that has acted to temporarily drag the average for the city as a whole to a -2%.

To highlight the brewing tensions, earlier this week a disturbance in Page Hall involving an estimated 50 youths has resulted injuries, several arrests and an ongoing heavy police presence. With gangs of youth and men standing on street corners for hours, then such disturbances look set to become increasingly more frequent during the hot summer months ahead though unlikely to further depress average house prices for the city as a whole where the underlying trend is one of an imminent house prices boom, which will prove quite a shocking experience for those attempting to sell from within the depressed areas and buy elsewhere in the city as the change in house prices experienced could be as much as a 30% difference!

Sheffield House Prices Analysis

In-depth analysis of the Sheffield's housing market as excerpted below as contained within the new UK housing market ebook that can be downloaded for free (only requirement is a valid email address).

Sheffield's Best Places to Live

The below map details which areas of Sheffield should be avoided and which areas should be favoured in terms of the best places to live. Obviously the amount of financing available will play an important factor in determining the choice of area's, but at a minimum the RED areas should be avoided as people moving to Sheffield, purchasing a property for their own residency in a Red area will soon come to regret their decision.

The large expanse of orange area's are as a consequence of the size of Sheffield's public sector and the private sector that directly relies on it, that continues to see deep cuts in local government spending, this also means that there is a continuing large supply of properties in these areas of Sheffield which acts to depress average house prices that masks booms taking places in pockets of the city and thus offers many opportunities towards the middle end of the property market.

Meanwhile prospective home buyers can expect a huge jump in financing requirements to purchase a property in the affluent areas of the city (Dark Green) which are situated in the the South West of the city as these areas will have experienced little in terms of the impact of the economic depression with the consequences and in terms of expected house prices is that just like many areas of London, these areas are already trading near their pre-crash levels as these are the areas that will be those that are in greatest NATIONAL demand, just as many parts of London are in great INTERNATIONAL demand (as high as 50% of properties in many areas of London are bought by foreign investors).

Click here for a Large version of the Where to Live Map (ebook)

In summary, prospective home buyers....

New Housing Market Ebook - FREE DOWNLOAD

The housing market ebook of over 300 pages comprises four main parts :

1. U.S. Housing Market Analysis and Trend Forecast 2013-2016 - 27 pages

The US housing market analysis and concluding trend forecast at the start of 2013 acted as a good lead exercise for the subsequent more in-depth analysis of the UK housing market.

2. U.K. Housing Market Analysis and House Prices Forecast 2014-2018 - 107 pages

The second part comprises the bulk of analysis that concludes in several detailed trend forecasts including that for UK house prices from 2014 to 2018 and their implications for the outcome of the next General Election (May 2015) as well as the Scottish Referendum.

3. Housing Market Guides - 138 Pages

Over 1/3rd of the ebook comprises of extensive guides that cover virtually every aspect of the process of buying, selling and owning properties, including many value increasing home improvements continuing on in how to save on running and repair costs with timely maintenance tasks and even guides on which value losing home improvements should be avoided.

  • What Can You Afford to Buy?
  • Home Buyers Guide
  • Home Sellers Guide
  • Top 15 Value Increasing Home Improvements
  • Home Improvements to Avoid
  • Home Winter Weather Proofing 22 Point Survey

These guides will further be supplemented from Mid 2014 onwards by a series of online videos and regularly updated calculators such as the Home Buying Profit and Loss Calculator, which will seek to give calculations on whether to buy or rent based on personal individual circumstances, that will be updated to include the latest expected trend trajectories for future house price inflation i.e. you will have your own personal house price forecast.

4. Historic Analysis 2007 to 2012 - 40 pages

A selection of 10 historic articles of analysis to illustrate the process of analysis during key stages of the housing markets trend from the euphoric bubble high, to a state of denial as house prices entered a literal free fall, to the depths of depression and then emergence of the embryonic bull market during 2012 that gave birth to the bull market proper of 2013.

FREE DOWNLOAD (Only requirement is a valid email address)

The bottom line is that the current underlying trend for Sheffield house prices for most areas of the city are for prices to be rising at the rate of between 7% and 12% per annum that will become publically manifest on release of 2014 Q2 prices data during August 2014.

Source and comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article45720.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2014 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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