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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

ISIS Crisis Only Tip of the Sunni Ice-berg in Iraq, Whilst Blair Goes Mad

Politics / Iraq War Jun 18, 2014 - 06:26 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Politics

The mainstream press has been awash with commentary over the past few days of the apparent miraculous speed at which ISIS has conquered approx 1/3rd of Iraq and now threatens the capital Baghdad, which has prompted has been's such as Tony Blair to step forward and offer his tuppence worth of recommendations for apparently an Iraq War 2 style western assault on the region, suggestions which were immediately denounced by many, including Boris Johnson as being mad.


Boris Johnson, the Mayor of London said " I have come to the conclusion that Tony Blair has finally gone mad".

"The Iraq war was a tragic mistake; and by refusing to accept this, Blair is now undermining the very cause he advocates - the possibility of serious and effective intervention."

"Blair's argument (if that is the word for his chain of bonkers assertions) is that we were right in 2003, and that we would be right to intervene again."

"Many rightly recoil from that logic. It is surely obvious that the 2003 invasion was a misbegotten folly."

"Somebody needs to get on to Tony Blair and tell him to put a sock in it - or at least to accept the reality of the disaster he helped to engender. Then he might be worth hearing."

The key point that has flummoxed most commentators is the apparent speed of ISIS conquests which has prompted discussions of an apparent U.S. / Iran alliance, where the U.S. provides air cover for iranian boots on the ground, and presumably for Iranian suicide squads to make it to their targets before detonating their explosives.

However, what most appear to have missed is that the crisis in Iraq has in fact very little to do with ISIS out of Syria, for the truth is that this crisis has been fermenting for over 2 years since the U.S. effectively surrendered to Iran by effectively giving control over Iraq in the control of a sectarian Shia government and military that over time has increasingly followed the agenda of Iran both in response to the civil war in Syria where a Shia Assad regime is at war with western and Saudi backed Sunni militias and the Iran nuclear weapons programme that the west through sanctions has sought to dismantle.

Therefore, the whole conflict in Syria and Iraq is one of Sunni vs Shia, where a confused west supports the Sunni's in Syria whilst supporting the Shia in Iraq. Which means most of those doing the fighting in west / central Iraq are actually Iraqi Sunni under the banner of ISIS so as they can take the blame for the Shia massacres. Such was revealed in apparently live on Sky News where the news reporter was asking supposed refugees queuing to enter the Kurdish controlled area of the country, where one of the 3 cars stopped went against the media story being painted of the past week of hundreds of thousands of people fleeing ISIS controlled cities, instead the occupants of the car painted a picture of stability and that they stated that it was the Shia regime in Baghdad that had been doing the killings with their air strikes and incursions into Sunni civilian areas.

So the war in Iraq is NOT all about ISIS but rather one of excluded and persecuted Iraqi Sunni's seeking to carve out independence from a Shia controlled government, and all that ISIS represents is a figure head tip of the ice-berg in terms of the number of fighters, which means that the approx 4,000 of ISIS forces are likely backed up by various Sunni tribal militias that number over 100,000, which the mainstream press for some perhaps propaganda reason remains blind to as the real actors are hiding behind ISIS and acting in their name.

This is reinforced by media coverage that in near totality carries ISIS as responsible for every act of violence, this despite the fact that most of the fighting CANNOT be by ISIS due to the huge disparity in the number of fighters on the ground.

This strongly suggests that Iraq is heading for a breakup because the war is not one of ISIS against Iraq but one of several million Sunni's that are using ISIS as a banner to mobilise behind against the Shia Iraqi government control. What remains to be seen is whether ISIS will still be around once the Sunni's have got their way as in all likelihood once they have served their purpose then ISIS as Al-Qeeda before them will be routed.

If the U.S. government were intelligent then they would realise this fact, but unfortunately there is nothing to suggest anything that resembles intelligence where U.S. government and military action in Iraq has been concerned for the past decade. This war IS UNWINNABLE by virtue of the fact that the U.S. will not be fighting against ISIS but over 100,000 Iraqi Sunni militia.

There appears to be only one workable solution which is for far greater autonomy of the Iraqi regions and a very weak federal central government, which is probably not going to happen which ultimately ensures that Iraq WILL breakup into Sunni, Shia and Kurdish separate states.

The clear winner at this point in time appears to be the dictator of Syria so I would not be surprised if ISIS is covertly being aided by the Assad regime by means of supportive aerial bombardment as most of the fighting in Syria by ISIS appears to be against other anti-regime forces including Al-Qeeda.

Source and comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article46094.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2014 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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