Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis - 17th July 19
Financial Crisis Stocks Bear Market Is Scary Close - 17th July 19
Want to See What's Next for the US Economy? Try This. - 17th July 19
What to do if You Blow the Trading Account - 17th July 19
Bitcoin Is Far Too Risky for Most Investors - 17th July 19
Core Inflation Rises but Fed Is Going to Cut Rates. Will Gold Gain? - 17th July 19
Boost your Trading Results - FREE eBook - 17th July 19
This Needs To Happen Before Silver Really Takes Off - 17th July 19
NASDAQ Should Reach 8031 Before Topping - 17th July 19
US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator - 16th July 19
Could Trump Really Win the 2020 US Presidential Election? - 16th July 19
Gold Stocks Forming Bullish Consolidation - 16th July 19
Will Fed Easing Turn Out Like 1995 or 2007? - 16th July 19
Red Rock Entertainment Investments: Around the world in a day with Supreme Jets - 16th July 19
Silver Has Already Gone from Weak to Strong Hands - 15th July 19
Top Equity Mutual Funds That Offer Best Returns - 15th July 19
Gold’s Breakout And The US Dollar - 15th July 19
Financial Markets, Iran, U.S. Global Hegemony - 15th July 19
U.S Bond Yields Point to a 40% Rise in SPX - 15th July 19
Corporate Earnings may Surprise the Stock Market – Watch Out! - 15th July 19
Stock Market Interest Rate Cut Prevails - 15th July 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State July 2019 Video - 15th July 19
Why Summer is the Best Time to be in the Entertainment Industry - 15th July 19
Mid-August Is A Critical Turning Point For US Stocks - 14th July 19
Fed’s Recessionary Indicators and Gold - 14th July 19
The Problem with Keynesian Economics - 14th July 19
Stocks Market Investors Worried About the Fed? Don't Be -- Here's Why - 13th July 19
Could Gold Launch Into A Parabolic Upside Rally? - 13th July 19
Stock Market SPX and Dow in BREAKOUT but this is the worrying part - 13th July 19
Key Stage 2 SATS Tests Results Grades and Scores GDS, EXS, WTS Explained - 13th July 19
INTEL Stock Investing in Qubits and AI Neural Network Processors - Video - 12th July 19
Gold Price Selloff Risk High - 12th July 19
State of the US Economy as Laffer Gets Laughable - 12th July 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State - 12th July 19
Stock Market Major Index Top In 3 to 5 Weeks? - 11th July 19
Platinum Price vs Gold Price - 11th July 19
What This Centi-Billionaire Fashion Magnate Can Teach You About Investing - 11th July 19
Stock Market Fundamentals are Weakening: 3000 on SPX Means Nothing - 11th July 19
This Tobacco Stock Is a Big Winner from E-Cigarette Bans - 11th July 19
Investing in Life Extending Pharma Stocks - 11th July 19
How to Pay for It All: An Option the Presidential Candidates Missed - 11th July 19
Mining Stocks Flash Powerful Signal for Gold and Silver Markets - 11th July 19
5 Surefire Ways to Get More Viewers for Your Video Series - 11th July 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Top AI Stocks Investing to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend

Week Ahead: Commodities Analysis - GLD, SLV, USO

Commodities / Commodities Trading Aug 10, 2014 - 04:46 AM GMT

By: Richard_Cox


Precious metals markets have been showing strength as investors start to take profits in stocks (with prices still trading near record levels).  This has helped move money into assets like the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE: GLD) and iShares Silver Trust ETF (NYSE: SLV), which continue to rebound from their yearly lows.  Many of these rallies have been prompted by geopolitical concerns in Ukraine, Gaza, and Iraq

All commodities markets should see support from investors as long as these stories remain in the headlines.  Oil markets -- and the United States Oil Fund LP ETF (NYSE: USO) -- can still move higher on supply concerns, and gold and silver ETFs can move higher on safe haven demand for hard assets.  Metals traders and those using oil to express their market views will need to remain cognizant of the fact that we are likely to see the current climate of trading conditions for roughly another month, as September usually ushers in a much bigger surge of market liquidity.  Here, we look at the latest technical developments in gold, silver, and crude oil.


Critical Resistance:   128.80

Critical Support:   119.70


(Chart Source:  CornerTrader)

GLD / Gold Trading Strategy:  Wait for convincing break of the symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern.  RSI is rising, this suggests eventual break will be bullish. 

Market prices in GLD have shown clear signs of stabilizing after the more erratic activity seen in the early parts of the year.  This type of event leads to consolidation, and we will need to wait for a the next impulse move in order to get a convincing sense of where prices are headed next.  Most of the evidence points to an upside break, as the Daily RSI is rising and has plenty of room to extend before becoming overbought.  An upside break of 128.80 would confirm the bullish bias. 

iShares Silver Trust ETF (NYSE: SLV)

Critical Resistance:   20.60

Critical Support:   19.30


SLV / Silver Trading Strategy:  Trade the range between 20.60 and 19.30 until market momentum picks up and clearly breaks a daily support or resistance level.  Keep stops within 0.60 relative to market prices.

Things are looking less positive for SLV, as we can now see a clearly defined series of lower highs on the daily charts.  Prices have started to flatten-out just below 20 and we will need to see a moving-average break on the weekly charts before we can start to conclude that the trend has completed.  First resistance is now seen at 20.60 and traders can take short-term sell positions as part of a range trading strategy.  On the downside, support is now defined by the 19.30 level which also marks a suitable entry area for long positions.  These trends have also been confirmed by recent market analysis from Atlanta Gold and Coin.

United States Oil Fund LP ETF (NYSE: USO)

Critical Resistance:   38.10

Critical Support:   35.30


USO / Crude Oil Trading Strategy:  Sell rallies.  First resistance seen at 38.10, place stops above 39.60. 

The USO ETF has completed its prior head and shoulders pattern, which creates a bearish outlook on the Daily charts.  We have now moved through the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the bullish move that began at the beginning of this year, so this now places the focus squarely on the 61.8% Fib retracement of that same move (which comes in at 35.30).  Look to sell rallies just above 38, targeting 35.30.  This trade looks good in terms of risk-to-reward ratios, as 39.60 resistance is likely to contain prices for the rest of this month. 

By Richard Cox

© 2014 Richard Cox - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules