Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market House Prices Bull Market Trend Current State - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold and Silver End of Week Technical, CoT and Fundamental Status - Gary_Tanashian
3.Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast - April Update - Nadeem_Walayat
4.When Will the Stock Market’s Rally Stop? - Troy_Bombardia
5.Russia and China Intend to Drain the West of Its Gold - MoneyMetals
6.BAIDU (BIDU) - Top 10 Artificial Intelligence Stocks Investing To Profit from AI Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Stop Feeding the Chinese Empire - ‘Belt and Road’ Trojan Horse - Richard_Mills
8.Stock Market US China Trade War Panic! Trend Forecast May 2019 Update - Nadeem_Walayat
9.US China Trade Impasse Threatens US Lithium, Rare Earth Imports - Richard_Mills
10.How to Invest in AI Stocks to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
The Bad News About Record-Low Unemployment - 24th June 19
Stock Market New High, but…! - 24th June 19
Formula for when the Great Stock Market Rally Ends - 24th June 19
How To Time Market Tops and Bottoms - 24th June 19
5 basic tips to help mitigate the vulnerability inherent in email communications - 24th June 19
Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - 24th June 19
Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - 23rd June 19
Financial Sector Paints A Clear Picture For Stock Market Trading Profits - 23rd June 19
What You Should Look While Choosing Online Casino - 23rd June 19
INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - 22nd June 19
Here’s Why You Should Drive a Piece of Crap Car - 22nd June 19
How Do Stock Prices React to Fed Interest Rate Cuts? - 22nd June 19
Gold Bull Market Breaking Out! - 21st June 19
Post-FOMC Commentary: Delusions of Grandeur - 21st June 19
Gold Scores Gains as Draghi and Powel Grow Concerned - 21st June 19
Potential Upside Targets for Gold Stocks - 21st June 19
Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - 21st June 19
The Gold (and Silver) Volcano Is Ready to Erupt - 21st June 19
Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged – Gold & Stocks Rally/Dollar Falls - 21st June 19
Silver Medium-Term Trend Analysis - 20th June 19
Gold Mining Stocks Waiting on This Chart - 20th June 19
A Key Gold Bull Market Signal - 20th June 19
Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - 20th June 19
Investing in APPLE (AAPL) to Profit From AI Machine Learning Stocks - 20th June 19
Small Cap Stocks May Lead A Market Rally - 20th June 19 -
Interest Rates Square Minus Zero - 20th June 19
Advice for Financing a Luxury Vehicle - 20th June 19
Stock Market Final Blow Off Top Just Hit… Next Week Comes the FIREWORKS - 20th June 19
US Dollar Rallies Off Support But Is This A Top Or Bottom? - 19th June 19
Most Income Investors Are Picking Up Nickels in Front of a Steamroller - 19th June 19
Is the Stock Market’s Volatility About to Spike? - 19th June 19
Facebook's Libra Crypto currency vs Bitcoin: Five Key Differences - 19th June 19
Fed May Trigger Wild Swing In Stock Index and Precious Metals - 19th June 19
How Long Do Land Rover Discovery Sport Brake Pads Last? - 19th June 19
Gold Golden 'Moment of Truth' Is Upon Us: $1,400-Plus or Not? - 18th June 19
Exceptional Times for Gold Warrant Special Attention - 18th June 19
The Stock Market Has Gone Nowhere and Volume is Low. What’s Next - 18th June 19
Silver Long-Term Trend Analysis - 18th June 19
IBM - Watson Deep Learning - AI Stocks Investing - Video - 18th June 19
Investors are Confident, Bullish and Buying Stocks, but… - 18th June 19
Gold and Silver Reversals – Impossible Not to Notice - 18th June 19
S&P 500 Stuck at 2,900, Still No Clear Direction - 17th June 19
Is Boris set to be the next Conservation leader? - 17th June 19
Clock’s Ticking on Your Chance to Profit from the Yield Curve Inversion - 17th June 19
Stock Market Rally Faltering? - 17th June 19
Johnson Vs Gove Tory Leadership Contest Grudge Match Betfair Betting - 17th June 19
Nasdaq Stock Index Prediction System Is Telling Us A Very Different Story - 17th June 19
King Dollar Rides Higher Creating Pressures On Foreign Economies - 17th June 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Tailgate Not Working Problems Fix (70) - 17th June 19
Stock Market Outlook: is the S&P today just like 2007 or 2016? - 17th June 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Gold Price Trend Forecast Summer 2019

Why Global Bond Yields Are Tumbling

Interest-Rates / International Bond Market Aug 25, 2014 - 01:12 PM GMT

By: Michael_Pento

Interest-Rates

Market pundits appear to be mostly dumbfounded as global bond yields continue to set record lows.  For some examples; the 10 year German bund fell below 1%., the Italian 10 year note has dropped below 2.60%, Spanish bonds fell to 2.40 % and Japan is offering a shocking one half of one percent to borrow funds for ten years.  Even Greece, whose bonds were on ECB life support just two years ago, has a 10 year note yielding below 6%.  Worldwide bond yields are at all-time lows, leaving market commentators scrambling to come up with a creative array of explanations for this phenomenon.  Tensions in Ukraine and escalating violence in the Middle East are some favorites.  But at least in Europe and Japan, most are willing to attribute record-low bond yields to the real cause…that is no growth and deflation.


Curiously, here in the United States--despite bonds yields heading towards 52 weeks lows around 2.31%--those perpetually-bullish market strategists are extremely optimistic about growth in the second half. Just as they have been each year since the Great Recession ended in 2009.
 
Few commentators in the U.S. are willing to admit the truth that plunging bond yields are signaling the same thing here that they are in the rest of the globe, which is the inability of massive central bank money printing to engender real growth.  These pundits have a myriad of other excuses to explain our low borrowing costs. But my favorite red herring is to completely lay the cause for our plunging yields on the low yields that exist in Europe and Japan. They claim it is the yield spread alone that is causing a monetary deluge into U.S. debt.

It is true the benchmark U.S. yield has been running more than 1.30 percentage points above the yield on 10-year German Bunds since the beginning of July. This premium is the biggest since June 1999, which was before the euro was introduced.  Leaving many to summarily conclude that our yields must fall commensurately to that of Japan and Europe; despite their contention that the U.S. growth and inflation rates will be drastically different than that of those same countries. 

But falling yields in the US are not solely due to an arbitrage between Treasuries and European/Japanese debt. To the contrary, it is because the fundamentals of low growth and cyclical deflation are the same in both countries. If the U.S. had differing fundamentals, like rapidly-rising inflation, then the yield spread would be rising instead of narrowing. That’s because foreign investors would need to be compensated for the increasing differential in real interest rates (much lower in the U.S. than in Europe). Therefore, this condition of falling real rates in the U.S. would cause the Euro to rise vis-à-vis the dollar and erode all incentives to own Treasuries near the same yield as European debt.

The truth is, the investors who make up the bond market are smarter than most who comment on it.  They understand, bond prices are a result of Credit, Currency and Inflation risks.   Since the credit risks of Europe and the U.S. are fairly commensurate, we have to assume a worldwide decline in yield reflects the market’s perception of inflation risk, or lack thereof.  This is because the U.S. is ending its biggest QE program to date ($1.7 trillion worth of Fed asset purchases), which will bring about a short-lived respite from the inflation experienced over the last few years.

In 2011, I said the world was heading into a new paradigm – central banks around the globe were walking their economies on a very thin tight rope between inflation and deflation.  Onerous debt levels had reached the point where the central banks would be forced into a difficult decision; either massively monetize the nation’s debt or allow a deflationary depression to wipe out the economy. 

In this environment, governments are compelled to seek a condition of perpetual inflation in order to maintain the illusion of prosperity and solvency.  However, once the central bank shuts off the money spigot, deflation then returns with a vengeance.  As a result of winding down the massive money printing from the Fed, we are now seeing the very early signs of deflation.  Yet, the usual talking heads are too busy cheering from the sideline to watch the game.  And they see every deflationary signal the market is throwing them as another reason to get their pompoms out. 

Falling commodity prices (down 8% on the CRB Index since June) are great for consumers and businesses in the long term. A period of deflation would be greatly welcomed in the long term, inasmuch as it represents a needed healing process from the Fed-induced inflation. However, it is not conducive to rapid growth in the short run because this deflation will be the result of collapsing asset bubbles. 

The facts are that Japanese GDP is falling sharply, European growth is nil, and U.S. GDP for the first half of 2014 is under 1%. For those who love to continually applaud every central bank intervention, the failure of our Fed to produce sustainable growth seems not to be an option.  So every data point is spun to support the narrative of an economic recovery.  Unwilling to admit the Fed’s massive monetary experiment may fail, they sit in perpetual denial about our true economic condition and spin an elaborate web of excuses. 

What they fail to realize is that QE never created viable growth, it just inflated asset prices.  Likewise, the winding down of QE will not manifest growth, it will just temporarily deflate those bubbles that represent the greatest distortion of asset prices in the history of global economics.     

Michael Pento is the President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies and Author of the book “The Coming Bond Market Collapse.”

Respectfully,

Michael Pento
President
Pento Portfolio Strategies
www.pentoport.com
mpento@pentoport.com

Twitter@ michaelpento1
(O) 732-203-1333
(M) 732- 213-1295

Michael Pento is the President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS). PPS is a Registered Investment Advisory Firm that provides money management services and research for individual and institutional clients.

Michael is a well-established specialist in markets and economics and a regular guest on CNBC, CNN, Bloomberg, FOX Business News and other international media outlets. His market analysis can also be read in most major financial publications, including the Wall Street Journal. He also acts as a Financial Columnist for Forbes, Contributor to thestreet.com and is a blogger at the Huffington Post.
               
Prior to starting PPS, Michael served as a senior economist and vice president of the managed products division of Euro Pacific Capital. There, he also led an external sales division that marketed their managed products to outside broker-dealers and registered investment advisors. 
       
Additionally, Michael has worked at an investment advisory firm where he helped create ETFs and UITs that were sold throughout Wall Street.  Earlier in his career he spent two years on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.  He has carried series 7, 63, 65, 55 and Life and Health Insurance Licenses. Michael Pento graduated from Rowan University in 1991.
       

© 2014 Copyright Michael Pento - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Michael Pento Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules