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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: International Bond Market

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Monday, April 22, 2019

Global Bond Market Bubble’s Ultimate Culmination / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: Michael_Pento

Historically speaking, a normal Fed tightening cycles consist of raising the Fed Funds Rate (FFR) by 350-425bps. It is at that point that the yield curve usually inverts--thus, disincentivizing future lending and closing down the credit conduit. At that point the Fed backs off from future rate hikes. Then, about a year later, a stock market meltdown begins; and six months after that a recession ensues. During this current cycle, the Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) has raised rates by just 250bps before turning dovish. Therefore, Wall Street takes solace in the view that this time around the Fed stopped in time before it killed the business cycle.

However, that 250bps of hiking is before you factor in the end of Quantitative Easing (QE) and the current Quantitative Tightening Program (QT), which is still an ongoing process and won't end until September. When you factor in the tightening that occurred when the Fed ended QE in October of 2014, which amounted to $85b per month of newly printed money at its peak and added a total of $3.7 trillion to the Fed’s balance sheet, the actual amount of tightening from ending QE is probably close to 300bps. And, the QT from the Fed will end up draining nearly $1 trillion from its balance sheet and reached $40-$50 billion per month at its peak. A reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet of anything close to $1 trillion is completely unprecedented and amounted to a tremendous drain on liquidity. Nobody knows exactly the amount of rate hikes this equates to, but it most likely added another 75bps of monetary tightening.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, February 26, 2018

Bonds and Related Financial Market Indicators / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: Gary_Tanashian

The following is an excerpt from this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 488. For NFTRH bonds are not just an asset class ‘throw-in’ but instead are a key indicator set to the entire modern macro. Insofar as it may be time to use them for portfolio balance (I am currently long SHV, SHY, IEI & IEF), so much the better. Many could not wait to buy bonds during US ZIRP global NIRP operations, but today they pay better interest and have a contrarian edge with the entire herd bracing for a bear market.

We claimed appropriately bearish on bonds on December 4th, so you know this is not perma-book talking when we go the other way as yields hit our targets.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, January 05, 2018

European Bonds Are 2018’s Number One Risk / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: John_Mauldin

BY JARED DILLIAN : No shortage of stupid things these days:

  • Bitcoin
  • Litecoin
  • Pizzacoin
  • Canadian real estate
  • Swedish real estate
  • Australian real estate
  • FANG
  • Venture capital
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Sunday, October 09, 2016

World Gone Mad: Credit Bubble “Perpetual Preferred” / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: John_Rubino

Towards the end of a credit bubble, ideas that might have seemed crazy in more boring times are not just accepted but embraced by investors desperate to keep the high that comes from effortless bull-market profits.

In the junk bond bubble of the late 1980s, for instance, there was the “PIK preferred,” a kind of stock/bond hybrid that paid its holders in more securities (PIK stood for “payment in kind”). Companies could issue them with zero near-term cash flow consequence while credulous investors bought them for their “high yields.”

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, September 24, 2016

Global Bonds: Why Our Analyst Says Things Just Got "Monumental" / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: EWI

Our interest rates strategist explains more in this new interview

Peter DeSario, editor of our Interest Rates Pro Service, explains why this was a "monumental" week in the bond markets -- and offers a preview of which markets he's keeping his eye on.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Global Bond Bubble has Finally Reached its Apogee / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: Michael_Pento

Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren recently rattled markets when he warned that low-interest rates were increasing the temperature of the U.S. economy, which now runs the risk of overheating. That sunny opinion was echoed by several other Federal Reserve officials who are trying to portray an economy that is on a solid footing. And thus, prepare investors and consumers for an imminent rise in rates.  But perhaps someone should check the temperatures of those at the Federal Reserve, the idea that this tepid economy is starting to sizzle could not be further from the truth.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, September 15, 2016

Unprecedented Global Bond Bubble Threatens Holders of Cash / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: MoneyMetals

As big as previous real estate and stock market bubbles have been, the current global bubble in government debt dwarfs them all. Not only is it far bigger in size and scope (some $60 trillion in sovereign bonds now trade globally); it is also unprecedented in character.
The world has rarely seen a bond bull market that is not only 36 years old, but also shows few signs of ending. And never before in recorded history have interest rates gotten so low across the board.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 18, 2016

4 Reasons Not to Buy Bonds Now / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: John_Mauldin

BY JARED DILLIAN : I try to be a long-term thinker and filter out all the short-term noise. That’s hard nowadays, because there is so much short-term noise!

Any one of these four things would be big news, especially in the dog days of summer. But all four?  It’s crazy out there.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Saturday, April 02, 2016

Wall Street is Coo-Coo for CoCo Bonds - Learn why these new bonds are such risky instruments / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: EWI

The co-editor of our monthly Elliott Wave Financial Forecast newsletter tells you about the emergence of the so-called CoCo bonds, one of the hottest new derivative-backed instruments on Wall Street.

Listen as Peter explains what differentiates them from regular bonds -- and why they're so risky to own.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Monday, February 29, 2016

Irish Bonds Fall as Election Creates Political and Economic Uncertainty / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: GoldCore

Irish bonds fell today and the yield on ten-year Irish bonds rose to 0.908 pc, up from 0.891 pc in early trading this morning after a divisive general election and inconclusive result threw Irish politics into disarray and created considerable political and economic uncertainty.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, January 17, 2016

The Bursting of the Bond Bubble Has Begun - Pt 2 / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: Graham_Summers

As we wrote earlier this week, bursting of the bond bubble has begun.

The decision by Central Banks to “inflate” the system’s debts away post-2008 has resulted in the misallocation of trillions of Dollars of capital.

The worst offenders were Chinese corporates. China has created the single largest mountain of bad debt in the world. Indeed, things are so out of control in China that 45% of all proceeds from new bond issuance are being used just to pay off interest on old loans.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Thursday, October 15, 2015

What the 'Junk-Bond Crisis' Means for Muni Bonds / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: DW

Dr. David Eifrig writes: It could happen next week... or next month...

Wall Street is already sending warning signals about the next financial cataclysm. Analysts are using phrases like "liquidity crunch" and "crisis situation."
 
I'm talking about the impending crisis in high-yield ("junk") corporate bonds. When this crisis happens, some investors will get wiped out... while others will make a killing...
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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Junk Bond Market Imminent Collapse Threatens (Unwelcome) BIG Rate Rises / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: Clive_Maund

Everyone is so focused on looking at the Fed and whether or not it decides to raise rates by a puny 0.25%, that they are completely overlooking the fact that it is the market's role to set interest rates, and if the Fed is not up to the job, then the markets will eventually take over and do it in a manner that is likely to involve rises vastly greater than a mere 0.25%, which given the current fragile and extremely unstable debt structure, can be expected to have catastrophic consequences.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 13, 2015

German-US Bond Yield Spread Breaks Out / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: Ashraf_Laidi

Bond yields fell across the board since mid-June, but the more meaningful fact for currency traders remains yield differentials. For EURUSD watchers, the rate of decline in 10-year bund has been slower than its US counterpart, which led to a stabilisation in the German-US spread (not US-German) to the extent of breaking above an important 3 ½ year trendline.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Junk Bonds - The Next Financial Disaster Starts Here / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: Casey_Research

By Dan Steinhart

Individual investors take note…

Some of the world’s best money managers are betting on the biggest financial disaster since 2008.

You won’t hear about this from the mainstream media. Networks like NBC or CBS don’t have a clue… just like they didn’t have a clue the US housing market would collapse in 2007.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 02, 2015

The Fuse of the Global Debt Bomb Has Been Lit / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: Graham_Summers

Greece defaulted on a debt payment to the IMF last night at midnight.

Regardless of anything else, we have now seen a developed country “go over the cliff” in terms of negotiating debt payments. This will have global implications for other indebted countries in terms of negotiating tactics going forward.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 25, 2015

When a Bond Is Not a Bond / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: John_Mauldin

By Jared Dillian

I don’t know anything about Greece. I actually make it a point not to.

What I’ve found over the course of my career is that the closer people get to an issue, the worse their predictive power is. The forest-for-the-trees phenomenon. Like all the economists who do nothing but watch the Fed, every piece of data, every speech. Their track record in predicting interest rate moves is worse than everyone else’s!

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 11, 2015

Is The Age Of Negative Interest Rates Ending Already? / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: John_Rubino

History teaches that long trends end only when everyone is finally convinced that they’ll keep going.

Maybe no trend in modern times has been as convincing as interest rates. The yield on long-term Treasury bonds, for instance, has been falling for as long as most people have been alive:

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, June 10, 2015

How to Play the Bond Market Crash / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com Shah Gilani writes: A week ago, in a strategy piece detailing ways to handle the looming bond-market crash, I recommended shorting the iShares PLC Markit iBoxx Euro High Yield Bond ETF (LON: IHYG).

Several readers wrote in to say that “not every brokerage lets you buy this.” Some do, in fact: In this day and age, many brokerages let you buy any shares, anywhere. But for those of you whose brokerages won’t let you, I wanted to give you an alternative.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Monday, June 08, 2015

Get Ready for the Greatest Trade in History / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com William Patalon writes: In Wall Street lore, it's known as the "Greatest Trade Ever."

It's also known as "The Big Short."

In 2006, John Paulson was a relatively unknown hedge-fund manager – just another face in the crowd.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


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