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US Dollar Cycle Analysis

Currencies / US Dollar Sep 30, 2014 - 05:25 PM GMT

By: Ed_Carlson

Currencies

It seems nothing can stop the US Dollar. Since its low in April it has closed higher in four out of five months and is up almost 8.00% since then. While a run like that is in need of a rest there are some big issues that need to be considered now.

DXY broke out of a six-year triangle this month. Breaking to the upside from a triangle is bullish. That triangle is essentially a six-year base and should give DXY some serious "legs" for the future.


As the world's most important commodities are priced in US Dollars, a higher Dollar means lower commodity prices; deflation. Note in the chart below how both equities and commodities trended higher during the inflationary period associated with a falling Dollar. Note also the "Goldilocks" period while DXY has been forming its base. Even commodities, which took a big hit in 2008, have essentially gone sideways since then.

The Dollar breakout is warning of an end to the bull market in equities and renewed bear market in commodities.


Get your copy of the September Lindsay Report at SeattleTA.

Ed Carlson, author of George Lindsay and the Art of Technical Analysis, and his new book, George Lindsay's An Aid to Timing is an independent trader, consultant, and Chartered Market Technician (CMT) based in Seattle. Carlson manages the website Seattle Technical Advisors.com, where he publishes daily and weekly commentary. He spent twenty years as a stockbroker and holds an M.B.A. from Wichita State University.

© 2014 Copyright Ed Carlson - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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