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FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

UKIP South Yorkshire PCC Election Win is Just Not Going to Happen

ElectionOracle / UK Local Elections Oct 29, 2014 - 04:50 AM GMT

By: N_Walayat

ElectionOracle

The by-election for the South Yorkshire Police and Crime Commissioner in the wake of the resignation of Shaun Wright is to be held this Thursday, and which has started to galvanise the mainstream press into swallowing UKIP propaganda that they actually stand a chance of winning the by-election all on the basis of one message centred around the Rotherham child sex abuse scandal as illustrated by the poster vans that are doing the rounds in Rotherham area.


"A UKIP victory here would be especially embarrassing to Labour as Ed Milliband is a South Yorkshire MP. It would be a sign that Nigel Farage's party poses as much as threat to Labour as it does to the Conservatives and a sign too that in many parts of Northern England just as in Scotland that Labour can no longer depend on its working class base" - Michael Crick, C4News (28th Oct 14)

(Channel 4 News Video)

What the political pundits have apparently forgotten is that Labour over many generations has built up a vast pool of vested interest voters who by virtue of what they are personally in receipt of in terms of benefits and services with hopes to further gain from the expansion of Labour socialist policies or to be blunt voter bribes, are just not going to contemplate giving all of that up to effectively vote for a right wing party that apart from a few policies that many may agree with would never be willing to sacrifice the baby with the bath water so no matter how inept and incompetent Labour governance has been in places such as Rotherham, nevertheless most voters will continue to vote Labour zombie style at each election.

My earlier analysis pointed out the huge pool of Labour voters who will in large part remain invisible until polling day when they will emerge like the walking dead to march in their thousands to the polling stations to mark X's against the red rose candidate.

25 Oct 2014 - Labour Party Anoints Alan Billings as Next South Yorkshire Police and Crime Commissioner

The results of the 2012 SYPCC election illustrate the fact that the other candidates don't stand a cat in hells chance of beating whatever candidate Labour puts up, even if it had four for legs South Yorkshires Labour zombie voters would still mark their X's against the red rose candidate.

PCC Election Result 2012
Candidate 
Party 
 
Shaun Wright
Labour  51.35 
 
David Allen
English Democrat  15.56 
 
Nigel Bonson
Conservative  14.51 
 
Jonathan Arnott
UKIP  11.54 
 
Robert Teal
Liberal Democrat 7.04

The bottom line is political pundits are not fully appreciating the zombiesk tendency of South Yorkshires brainwashed Labour voters to vote Labour no matter who the candidate is or how badly Labour has governed in places such as Rotherham, a city in terminal decline where its city centre was killed off 2 decades ago when Meadowhall opened its doors and everything the Council has done since such as hefty car parking charges has made matters worse. Who is going to pay to park in a deserted Rotherham city centre when they can go and park for free and shop at Meadowhall ?

Earlier still, before the 2012 SYPCC election, I estimated the probabilities for each for the candidates winning the election (probability of win and NOT the % of vote) which illustrated despite all of the media hype at that time about a 'close race', in terms of the actual probability of winning, none of the non Labour candidates sood a cat in hells chance of winning given an over 70% probability for Labour with the nearest contender on just a 10% chance of winning, and despite all of the media noise since, there has been very little movement in terms of actual probability of outcome.

12 Nov 2012 - Shaun Wright Wins South Yorkshire Police and Crime Commissioner Rubber Stamp Election!

As mentioned earlier, probability strongly favours Labours Shaun Wright winning the SYPCC election as illustrated by the graph below that it would literally take a miracle for any other parties candidate to win as the voters of the peoples republic of south yorkshire will be expected to rubber stamp the Labour candidate without having any clue of either who the candidate is or exactly what the PCC is supposed to do.

The bottom line is that the only way for a party to replace Labour in South Yorkshire would be to BECOME Labour, which is how the Lib-Dems prior to joining the Coalition had limited success because they sought to out Labour, Labour. And frankly its just not going to happen with the likes of UKIP, for they can NEVER be a substitute Labour party for the fundamental reason that UKIP are to the RIGHT of the Conservatives.

So a UKIP win is just NOT going to happen, even given the mismanagement and everything bad that has happened in Rotherham and probably elsewhere too, its just NOT going to have any significant effect on South Yorkshire's Labour vested interest zombie voters.

In terms of the probability for the outcome of the May 2015 general election my longstanding forecast is as excerpted below -

30 Dec 2013 - UK House Prices Forecast 2014 to 2018, Inflation, Trend Trajectory and General Election 2015

In conclusion a May 2015 general election at an average house price inflation rate of 8.5% would result in a Conservative overall majority of at least 30 seats. Therefore this is my minimum expectation as I expect UK house prices to start to average 10% per annum from early 2014 with my actual forecast converging towards average UK house prices breaking to a new all time high just prior to the May 2015 general election which would be a significant boost for housing market sentiment and thus the Conservative's election prospects.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2014 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

R.E.B
29 Oct 14, 13:40
No one will vote!

The most likely result is a no vote for everyone as the turnout will be infinitesimally low. This means the Labour activist minority will achieve a win by default, but a win is a win nonetheless. What is a PCC anyway but another bum on a seat? I have not met anyone who gives two hoots about PCC elections outside party activists, and I would be surprised if you had either.


Nadeem_Walayat
29 Oct 14, 15:40
Jobs for the Boys

PCC's are politicians creating jobs for themselves.

The posts were created so mostly westminister dinasaurs could get a tidy salary in semi-retirement.


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