Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
PAYPAL WARNING - Your Stimulus Funds Are at Risk of Being Frozen for 6 Months! - 5th Apr 20
Stocks Hanging By the Fingernails? - 5th Apr 20
US Federal Budget Deficits: To $30 Trillion and Beyond - 5th Apr 20
The Lucrative Profitability Of A Move To Negative Interest Rates - Pandemic Edition - 5th Apr 20
Visa Denials: How to avoid it and what to do if your Visa is denied? - 5th Apr 20 - Uday Tank
WARNING PAYPAL Making a Grab for US $1200 Stimulus Payments - 4th Apr 20
US COVID-19 Death Toll Higher Than China’s Now. Will Gold Rally? - 4th Apr 20
Concerned That Asia Could Blow A Hole In Future Economic Recovery - 4th Apr 20
Bracing for Europe’s Coronavirus Contractionand Debt Crisis - 4th Apr 20
Stocks: When Grass Looks Greener on the Other Side of the ... Pond - 3rd Apr 20
How the C-Factor Could Decimate 2020 Global Gold and Silver Production - 3rd Apr 20
US Between Scylla and Charybdis Covid-19 - 3rd Apr 20
Covid19 What's Your Risk of Death Analysis by Age, Gender, Comorbidities and BMI - 3rd Apr 20
US Coronavirus Infections & Deaths Trend Trajectory - How Bad Will it Get? - 2nd Apr 20
Silver Looks Bearish Short to Medium Term - 2nd Apr 20
Mickey Fulp: 'Never Let a Good Crisis Go to Waste' - 2nd Apr 20
Stock Market Selloff Structure Explained – Fibonacci On Deck - 2nd Apr 20
COVID-19 FINANCIAL LOCKDOWN: Can PAYPAL Be Trusted to Handle US $1200 Stimulus Payments? - 2nd Apr 20
Day in the Life of Coronavirus LOCKDOWN - Sheffield, UK - 2nd Apr 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Trajectory - Deviation Against Forecast - 1st Apr 20
Huge Unemployment Is Coming. Will It Push Gold Prices Up? - 1st Apr 20
Gold Powerful 2008 Lessons That Apply Today - 1st Apr 20
US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video - 1st Apr 20
From Global Virus Acceleration to Global Debt Explosion - 1st Apr 20
UK Supermarkets Coronavirus Panic Buying Before Lock Down - Tesco Empty Shelves - 1st Apr 20
Gold From a Failed Breakout to a Failed Breakdown - 1st Apr 20
P FOR PANDEMIC - 1st Apr 20
The Past Stock Market Week Was More Important Than You May Understand - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus - No, You Do Not Hear the Fat Lady Warming Up - 31st Mar 20
Life, Religions, Business, Globalization & Information Technology In The Post-Corona Pandemics Age - 31st Mar 20
Three Charts Every Stock Market Trader and Investor Must See - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Stocks Bear Market Trend Forecast - Video - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Dow Stocks Bear Market Into End April 2020 Trend Forecast - 31st Mar 20
Is it better to have a loan or credit card debt when applying for a mortgage? - 31st Mar 20
US and UK Coronavirus Trend Trajectories vs Bear Market and AI Stocks Sector - 30th Mar 20
Are Gold and Silver Mirroring 1999 to 2011 Again? - 30th Mar 20
Stock Market Next Cycle Low 7th April - 30th Mar 20
United States Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Forecasts Into End April 2020 - 29th Mar 20
Some Positives in a Virus Wracked World - 29th Mar 20
Expert Tips to Save on Your Business’s Office Supply Purchases - 29th Mar 20
An Investment in Life - 29th Mar 20
Sheffield Coronavirus Pandemic Infections and Deaths Forecast - 29th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video - 28th Mar 20
The Great Coronavirus Depression - Things Are Going to Change. Here’s What We Should Do - 28th Mar 20
One of the Biggest Stock Market Short Covering Rallies in History May Be Imminent - 28th Mar 20
The Fed, the Coronavirus and Investing - 28th Mar 20
Women’s Fashion Trends in the UK this 2020 - 28th Mar 20
The Last Minsky Financial Snowflake Has Fallen – What Now? - 28th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast Into End April 2020 - 28th Mar 20
DJIA Coronavirus Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 27th Mar 20
US and UK Case Fatality Rate Forecast for End April 2020 - 27th Mar 20
US Stock Market Upswing Meets Employment Data - 27th Mar 20
Will the Fed Going Nuclear Help the Economy and Gold? - 27th Mar 20
What you need to know about the impact of inflation - 27th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Herd Immunity, Flattening the Curve and Case Fatality Rate Analysis - 27th Mar 20
NHS Hospitals Before Coronavirus Tsunami Hits (Sheffield), STAY INDOORS FINAL WARNING! - 27th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Curve, Stock Market Crash, and Mortgage Massacre - 27th Mar 20
Finding an Expert Car Accident Lawyer - 27th Mar 20
We Are Facing a Depression, Not a Recession - 26th Mar 20
US Housing Real Estate Market Concern - 26th Mar 20
Covid-19 Pandemic Affecting Bitcoin - 26th Mar 20
Italy Coronavirus Case Fataility Rate and Infections Trend Analysis - 26th Mar 20
Why Is Online Gambling Becoming More Popular? - 26th Mar 20
Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from Coronavirus Stock Markets CRASH! - 26th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Herd Immunity and Flattening the Curve - 25th Mar 20
Coronavirus Lesson #1 for Investors: Beware Predictions of Stock Market Bottoms - 25th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Stock Market Trend Implications - 25th Mar 20
Pandemonium in Precious Metals Market as Fear Gives Way to Command Economy - 25th Mar 20
Pandemics and Gold - 25th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Hotspots - Cities with Highest Risks of Getting Infected - 25th Mar 20
WARNING US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Going Ballistic! - 24th Mar 20
Coronavirus Crisis - Weeks Where Decades Happen - 24th Mar 20
Industry Trends: Online Casinos & Online Slots Game Market Analysis - 24th Mar 20
Five Amazingly High-Tech Products Just on the Market that You Should Check Out - 24th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus WARNING - Infections Trend Trajectory Worse than Italy - 24th Mar 20
Rick Rule: 'A Different Phrase for Stocks Bear Market Is Sale' - 24th Mar 20
Stock Market Minor Cycle Bounce - 24th Mar 20
Gold’s century - While stocks dominated headlines, gold quietly performed - 24th Mar 20
Big Tech Is Now On The Offensive Against The Coronavirus - 24th Mar 20
Socialism at Its Finest after Fed’s Bazooka Fails - 24th Mar 20
Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from Coronavirus Stock and Financial Markets CRASH! - 23rd Mar 20
Will Trump’s Free Cash Help the Economy and Gold Market? - 23rd Mar 20
Coronavirus Clarifies Priorities - 23rd Mar 20
Could the Coronavirus Cause the Next ‘Arab Spring’? - 23rd Mar 20
Concerned About The US Real Estate Market? Us Too! - 23rd Mar 20
Gold Stocks Peak Bleak? - 22nd Mar 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-bear-market-2020-analysis

Stocks Bear Market Catastrophe as Stocks Flash Crash to New All Time Highs

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014 Nov 09, 2014 - 09:59 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

The stock market has once more confounded all expectations by resolving to NEW ALL TIME HIGHS, this at a time when most market commentators had convinced themselves for much of October that the Top was in and that a new bear market had begun that in fact many proclaimed was on the verge of a crash given the accelerating rate of decent, and October was not extraordinary for such has been the case for the WHOLE of 2014! for EVERY MONTH of this year was meant to mark and END to the stocks bull market! Where the greater the deviation from its high the more vocal the doom calls became.


My last look at the stock market warned that new all time's were imminent.

31 Oct 2014 - Stocks Bear Market Crash Towards New All Time Highs as QE3 End Awaits QE4 Start

Clearly the stock market is showing relative strength and a DOW NEW ALL TIME HIGH Beckons.

Though off course saying that the Dow is going to make new all time high at Dow 17,195 is a lot easier to do than for instance back in the midst of Octobers doom and gloom when stocks were lurching to the downside each day, which proved a much more difficult exercise to arrive at a probable trend for the Dow that resolved towards its high before year end, at a time when the rate of decent was still accelerating let alone showing any signs for hitting bottom. However my last in depth analysis of a month ago concluded in the following trend expectation, that made it clear that I expected the stock market to once more resolve towards its all time high before year end.

12 Oct 2014 - Is the Stocks Bull Market Over? Dow Trend Forecast into End January 2015

Stock Market Forecast Conclusion

My final conclusion is for the Dow to continue its volatile trend lower into Mid November towards 15,350 , probably bottoming out around 15,500. To be followed by a rally to 17,100 by the end of this year, following which I expect a weak January with Dow probably ending the month below 16,500 having traded down to 16,350.

I don 't have to remind readers that virtually every correction of the duration of this 5.5 year stocks bull market has been accompanied with much hyper doom and gloom of why this time the stock market would with near absolute certainty collapse into a new bear market. Instead as we have once more witnessed this past few weeks the exact opposite ALWAYS happens, ALWAYS! Never once has a correction FAILED to resolve to a NEW all time high for the duration of this stocks bull market!

THAT is telling you something !

It is telling you as I have voiced countless times for the duration of this stocks bull market and as iterated in several hundred articles and 2 stocks stealth bull market ebook's (FREE DOWNLOAD) that THIS IS ONE OF THE GREATEST BULL MARKETS IN HISTORY! And in terms of the strategy for investing has remained very, very simple, not necessary to buy are subscribe to anything to profit from, but just a simple one line strategy that has been in force since at least April 2009 -

" The Greater the deviation from the stock market high then the Greater the Buying Opportunity Presented".

The most foolish thing that market commentators / participants can do is to go juncture hunting, something that they could literally spend doing for DECADES to come as 5.5 years turns into 11 years!

But what if the stock market actually does top tomorrow, or the day after?

The thought processes of most investors and traders is WRONG! The mass media, including most of the trading and investing books out there have conditioned most to THINK the WRONG way in terms of investing and that is for a reason and that reason is SALES! For salesmen to sell need to create a market for products, and over time, decades that market has become so convincing that 99% can only perceive investing and trading in such a way which is why NOW 99% LOSE trading and probably 80% investing up from about 90% / 70% a couple of decades ago.

For the answer why I refer you to my last ebook in the stocks stealth bull market series of Feb 2013 (FREE DOWNLOAD) as excerpted below -

The Real Secrets of Successful Trading

1. That you don't need to know ANY Technical Analysis to Trade

2. That you don't need to read ANY Trading Book to Learn to Trade. Do not invest yourself in Trading theory, for KNOWLEDGE is not the goal of trading! It does not matter if you ever heard of Gann or Elliott that will only seek to confuse and corrupt how you think and act. The only thing that matters is that you are able to grow your trading account!

3. To focus on trading Only ONE market.

4. To learn to imprint the price action into your mind through concentrated practice, anything that gets in the way of this process will NOT help you trade i.e. the hundreds of technical indicators because you are supposed to be trading the PRICE, and NOT the indicator! So when the indicator says one thing and the Price says something different then you will be CONFUSED, so forget ALL trading indicators and focus on just the Price.

5. The Holy Grail of Trading is YOU. Not any theory or tool or trading service - But How YOU REACT to Price Movements in REAL TIME.

6. Money Management is a Critical Real Secret to Successful Trading - Using Stops, Limits and Moving them in your FAVOUR as prices move in real-time. Your sole objective is to bank profits and let losses be stopped out short. If you have any doubts about a trade then you EXIT. It is not rocket science it is trading with determination of Gain vs Loss, Plus vs Minus, nothing more!

Market Forecasts

At about this point you are probably asking what about the forecasts?

Forecasting plays little role in trading, a shocker perhaps? But the reality is that one needs to concentrate on the current price and react to it, therefore one needs to stop second guessing the market by telling it what it should be doing which is what a forecast effectively is.

However, it is not as black and white to say that one does not forecast when when reacts to price movements in real time. For every trade entered into is on the basis of a positive outcome i.e. you are forecasting that your trade will generate a potential profit (limit) against a potential risk (stop). So in reality ALL trades are entered into on the basis of a forecast, its just that the forecast is not on the basis of analysis as positions have room to breath as stops and limits are adjusted or positions liquidated on the basis of doubt in response to subsequent price action.

For more on the real secrets for successful trading see the Stocks Stealth bull Market ebook (FREE DOWNLOAD)

Ensure you are subscribed to my always FREE newsletter for ongoing in-depth analysis and detailed trend forecasts. My next analysis should be on Gold.

The bottom line is this stocks bull market will only end when the perma bears on mass turn bullish! Therefore corrections such as Octobers are great for it continues to give the bears plenty of rope to hang themselves with.

Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article48127.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2014 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

biju.joseph
14 Nov 14, 01:46
not seeing a stockmarket dip

Nadeem,

I see that in yourcast, you are anticipating a dip in January 2015. But when I read calculatedrisk blog(which has an excellent record like you), they are not seeing any recession in 2015. So is a big dip in Jan 2015 still possible ?

Regards


Nadeem_Walayat
16 Nov 14, 17:38
Ebola

Hi Biju

My expectations where that Ebola would break out of africa and start impacting on western economic activity by about Mid January.

At present the disease is still not being contained and continues to grow exponentially. Remember that whilst western healthcare is mostly robust, however countries such as India and China are very, very weak.

Best

NW


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules