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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

UK Political Party Funding Suggests Another ConLib General Election Outcome 2015

ElectionOracle / UK General Election Feb 20, 2015 - 09:09 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

A report published by the Electoral Commission details fund raising by all of the major political parties for 2014, and allowing for expectations for a similar trend into the May 2015 general election means that significant differences in the funding of major parties election campaigns could result in a significant impact in this years too close to call probable hung parliament election.


The following table shows the total fund raising by each of the major parties for 2014 then extrapolated total into the end of April 2015.

% of Funding +4mths Trend 2014
Conservative 43% 38,872 29154
Labour 39% 35,183 26387
Lib Dems 13% 11,673 8755
UKIP 6% 5,129 3847
SNP 6% 5,505 4129
Greens 1% 965 724

(£1000's, includes approx 15% of public funding)

It should not come as any surprise that the Conservatives top the table at £38.8 million (eventual total likely to be higher due to more big donors), with Labour second on £35.1 million. However, of surprise to many will be that the Lib Dems raised more then double the far more vocal and visible UKIP with the Greens lost in the wilderness where funding is concerned. That just leaves the SNP which is a special case because their fund raising included for last Septembers independence referendum and election spending is concentrated on just 59 seats rather than spread out across several hundred seats which means that the impact of the funds is far greater than the amount raised as their immediate competition, Labour will likely not be able commit to anywhere near the SNP's concentration towards fighting for Scottish seats, and in fact sucks Labour funds away from fighting English seats.

Latest opinion poll seats projection

Labour 279 seats, Tories 262, Lib Dems 26, SNP 56, UKIP 4, Green 1(20th Feb 2015 May2015.com)

So whilst the fund raising table percentages will obviously NOT directly converting into the number of seats won, nevertheless suggests that contrary to current opinion poll projections that favour Labour, instead the Conservatives look set to become the largest party with Labour forced to funnel resources into a losing battle with the SNP so implies will do much worse than expected and the problem for UKIP and Greens is their lack of critical mass i.e. their vote and funding will be spread too thinly which suggests that the Liberal Democrats will do much better than most are expecting today.

Another point to consider is the borrowing capacity of the parties, i.e. how much debt do they already have outstanding that would limit future borrowing. The following table lists outstanding debt as of 31st December 2014.

Debt outstanding Dec-14
Conservative 1,093
Labour 10,753
Lib Dems 414
UKIP 82
SNP 165
Greens 0

(£1000's)

Which again suggests that the Labour party is under immense financial pressures and unlikely to do as well as many expect. Whilst the Conservatives have the capacity to borrow several millions over the next few months to ramp up their election prospects and secure a handful of additional seats.

So the only clear winner where this analysis is concerned are the SNP and at huge cost to Labour. Also that another hung parliament appears certain with a well over 90% probability, though the Conservatives by far look set to be the largest party and that the Lib Dems are likely to do better than most expect so we could be in for another ConLib government.

My next in-depth analysis will conclude in a detailed seats per party election forecast, so ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter to get this in your email box on completion.

In the meantime see my existing long standing forecast conclusion as of December 2013.

16 Dec 2013 - UK General Election Forecast 2015, Who Will Win, Coalition, Conservative or Labour?

The following graph attempts to fine tune the outcome of the next general election by utilising the more conservative current house prices momentum of 8.5% which has many implications for strategies that political parties may be entertaining to skew the election results in their favour.

The the key implications of the above graph are -

  • The window for an outright labour election victory has ended as of July 2013.
  • As of writing an election today would result in a Coalition government with a majority of about 40 seats.
  • The window of opportunity for a Coalition government ends by mid 2014 after which there is an increasing probability for a Conservative outright majority.
  • A May 2015 general election at an average house price inflation rate of 8.5% would result in a Conservative overall majority of about 30 seats. Therefore this is my minimum expectation as I expect UK house prices to start to average 10% per annum from the beginning of 2014.

And also a video version of the analysis and forecast conclusion -

UK General Election Forecast 2015

Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article49512.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2015 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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