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Urgent Stock Market Message

David Cameron Announces Resignation Even Before Being Re-elected, Handing Labour 6 Seats

ElectionOracle / UK General Election Mar 24, 2015 - 12:36 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat


A BBC reporter at home with David Cameron in his kitchen completely caught the Prime Minister off guard when questioned on whether he would continue for a third term, to which Cameron stated that he had no intentions of standing for a third term, which means if re-elected in May then he would make way for his successor long before the 5 year term of the parliament was up, triggering immediate speculation that his departure could take place shortly after the highly divisive EU 2017 referendum.

David Cameron - "A fresh pair of eyes and fresh leadership would be good and the Conservative party has got some great people coming up, the Theresa Mays, and the George Osborne's, and the Boris Johnson's, there's plenty of talent out there".

BBC reporter - "So the full five years but no third term."

David Cameron - "A third term is not something I have contemplated. Terms are like shredded wheat, 2 are wonderful, a third might just be too many."

So the race is on for his successor with David Cameron himself throwing the first three names into the bag as Cameron looks likely not to even be Prime Minster for half the term of the next parliament (should he win). Which is clearly a huge political gaff, not just because it distracts from the strategy for winning the May 7th general election but he himself has created speculation surrounding who will be his successor when previously none had existed, a huge blunder that even if the Conservatives win will plague David Cameron for duration of his premiership.

But worse is that in this extremely tight neck and neck election race then David Cameron's few short words may have swung a handful of seats in Labours direction, soon to be reflected in the opinion polls, which would be enough to tip the election in Labours favour. So if the Tories lose then this could be seen as the moment when the election was lost as Cameron has now definitely made the Conservatives task that bit harder to come out on top.

Current state of the Polls

The following is the current state of seats forecasts by various popular mostly mainstream media funded election sites that are set against my own forecast of 28th Feb 2015.

Market Oracle May2015 .com Electoralcalculus ElectionForecast The Guardian

28th Feb

21st Mar 22nd Mar 22nd Mar 18th Mar
Conservative 296 274 267 286 277
Labour 262 271 300 276 269
SNP 35 55 46 39 53
Lib Dem 30 24 57 26 25
UKIP 5 3 1 1 4
Others 22 22 22 22 22


The bottom line is that David Cameron has repeated the same mistake Tony Blair made in 2004 when he stated he would step down during a third term that galvanised Gordon Brown to bite at his heels for the next 3 years, eventually forcing Tony Blair out of office just 2 years into his third term, which sows the seeds of much unrest over the coming years as each prospective Tory leadership candidate attempts to carve out their own individual identity to stand out from the crowd so will be more critical of David Cameron's decisions i.e. multiple Gordon Browns!

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By Nadeem Walayat

Copyright © 2005-2015 (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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© 2005-2018 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

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