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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Stock Market Bears Get Slaughtered Despite Greece Counting Down to Grexit Financial Armageddon

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015 Apr 20, 2015 - 04:36 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

Friday's stock market plunge gave great hope to the bears who had been cocka-doodle-dooing all weekend that the top was once more in and that the bear market had finally definitely begun this time, only to find themselves once more gorged to death Monday morning as the Dow has already virtually retraced ALL of last Friday's plunge which illustrates what I have consistently written about for the past 6 year duration of this stocks bull market that remains on track to be one of the greatest bull markets in history. A bull market that has consistently been bet against by the majority of so called market analysts for its entire post 2008 financial collapse bull run. Where FEAR has governed the status quo, FEAR of a REPEAT of what happened in 2008 when any experienced analysts well understand that whilst a financial collapse WILL happen again, however they NEVER REPEAT! And that the greater the collapse then the greater will be the subsequent leveraged to inflation asset price boom just as we continue to witness in the stock and housing markets.


Stock Market 2015

In terms of the prospects for the stock market, my in-depth analysis of 3rd February concluded in the following detailed trend forecast for 2015 that expected a volatile trend during the first half of the year, that in the first instance targeted a new all time high before the end of March 2015 which was achieved early March. Followed by a volatile trend to a Summer low before the Dow resumes its bull market trend to new highs into the end of the year.

03 Feb 2015 - Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2015 by Nadeem Walayat

The Dow resolves to a bullish Elliott Wave pattern i.e. implies that the Dow should now embark on a trend to a new all time high, probably before the end of March! So contrary to much of the building picture so far. Thereafter suggests a summer ABC correction back down to around 17,500 to coincide with "Sell in May and Go Away".

Dow Stock Market Forecast 2015 Conclusion

My final conclusion is for the Dow to spend the first half of 2015 in a wide volatile trading range as it continues to unwind the 2014 bull run and sets the scene for the next series of bull runs to new all time highs. I expect the Dow to have started its bull run by early August off of an summer low and then continue into the end of the year, punctuated by an October correction low. I further expect the Dow to be trading well above 19,000 during December 2015 and probably above 19,500, before closing at around Dow 19,150 for a 7.5% gain for the year as illustrated by the following trend forecast graph for 2015.

Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2015

The bottom line is don't be frightened by first half weakness, yes it may look grim if we see the Dow trading under 16k, but all it would represent is a deeper buying opportunity before the market resolves to above Dow 19k.

Stock Market - What's Next?

To once more refer to my 3rd Feb outlook for the Dows first half trading range:

The Dow resolves to a bullish Elliott Wave pattern i.e. implies that the Dow should now embark on a trend to a new all time high, probably before the end of March! So contrary to much of the building picture so far. Thereafter suggests a summer ABC correction back down to around 17,500 to coincide with "Sell in May and Go Away".

The Dow chart clearly shows that the stock market made a new all time high early March and has subsequently made an ABC correction to a low near the 17,500 target and is implying that the Dow has now fulfilled this aspect of the forecast and should embark on its bull run much earlier than envisaged. However, I expect the Dow to remain in its volatile trading range until at least we get the 'Sell in May and Go Away' seasonal influence out of the way, so at least another month of volatility even if we have seen the actual low in the Dow for the remainder of 2015.

So just as the bears got carried away with themselves last Friday, so neither should the bulls read too much into today's surge higher for fundamentally the stock market remains within its volatile first half trading range, with perhaps a tinge more upward bias.

Greece Counting Down to Financial Armageddon

For triggers for stock market volatility we only have to look at Greece that remains in a count down towards financial armageddon exit from the eurozone that I have consistently seen as the most probable outcome for the fundamental reason that the situation of Greece has consistently remained unsustainable that ultimately is primed to explode towards which the financial markets have been discounting the consequences of for several years, so by now should have built up a degree of immunity to its consequences.

The bottom line is that Greece WILL exit the euro-zone, and looking at my stock market trend forecast then maximum uncertainty should be by no later than Mid June as by that time the Stock market should have embarked on its bull run to a series of new all time highs. Therefore Grexit should be some weeks before then which implies Greece will exit the euro-zone BEFORE the end of May 2015. I'll stick my neck out further and forecast that Greece will exit the euro-zone on 16th May 2015 due to some Euro 1 billion of interest payments falling due in that week that will trigger a debt default exit.

So don't be under any illusion that the worlds central bankers have not been busy preparing a myriad of contingency plans to limit Greece Grexit contagion as the primary objective of all central bankster's remains which is to continue to INFLATE the DEBT bubble indefinitely!

As to what will happen to Greece following Grexit, I refer to my earlier articles -

26 Jan 2015 - Greece Votes for Syriza Hyperinflation - Threatening Euro-zone Collapse or Perpetual Free Lunch

Grexit - Greece Euro-zone Exit

A Syriza majority government will embolden the radical left to embark on a suicide mission to demand freshly printed ECB Euros to finance an ever expanding socialist spending binge where the price expected to be paid will be by the rest of the euro-zone in terms of printing money to finance unproductive activities such as the public sector and the life styles of corrupt politicians. This puts Greece ultimately on the track towards being ejected out of the Eurozone with the consequences of there being high inflation (at least 30%) if not an hyperinflationary panic event for Greece and its new currency.

Greece Contagion

The last time Syriza threatened to seize power in Greece was in Mid 2012 which put the markets on red alert for financial armageddon that triggered banks literally to start exploding across the euro-zone most notable of which was Spain's Bankia.

08 Jun 2012 - Bankruptia Spain To Seek Imminent German Bailout to Limit Greece Election Contagion

Reuters has let the cat out of the bag Friday concerning secret panic driven talks concerning an imminent bailout of Spain's bankrupt banks, possibly as early as Saturday afternoon. Which follows fast on the heels of the credit ratings agency Fitch downgrading of Spanish Government bonds to just above junk status less than 2 weeks away from the contagion inducing Greek elections. All of which were contributing to what amounts to a state of Financial Armageddon in progress as a chain reaction of detonations takes place across the Euro-zone.

Reuters - Spain Poised for bailout request

"Spain has so far resisted pressure to seek a bailout for its crippled banking sector. But sources say Madrid is now poised to ask for help. It's expected to apply for European funds over the weekend. That would make Spain the fourth - and largest - country to seek a bailout since the euro zone debt crisis began. Two senior EU officials say euro zone finance ministers will hold a conference call to discuss the aid package. "

Meanwhile a whole host of Spanish Government Ministers have been busy all week denying that a bailout was imminent and that Spain did not need a bailout as they attempted to fight to keep their jobs as Spain would effectively follow Greece, Ireland and Portugal in giving up control of most aspects of their economy over to Germany.

ECB QE Money Printing

This time around with lessons learned the ECB has laid the ground work to cushion the immediate contagion consequences of a Syriza election victory on the Eurozone banking system under the cover of fighting deflation by announcing that the European central bank would print Euro 60 billion every month to a total Euro 1.2 trillion to buy mostly government bonds held by the banks (initially excluding Greece). This illustrates the degree to which the ECB feared the Greece Election results as it goes against virtually every statement made of the past 5 years that the ECB would not print money (QE). However given the crisis that the euro-zone will soon find itself in the rate of monthly money printing could easily double or even triple so that a couple of years from now the Euro-zone could have monetized as much debt as Japan has (60% of GDP, UK 25%, US 25%).

Possible Mechanisms for Greece Euro-zone Exit

Greece will effectively run out of money by the end of February, by which time if Syriza has made good on threats of starting to default on debt then the euro-zone will likely hold payment of the next tranche of bailout monies due by then of approx Euro 8 billion that could embolden Greece to threaten a default on total debt of Euro 250 billion most of which it owes to other euro-zone members (Euro 200 billion). Understanding fully that a total default would mean an exit from the eurozone that could trigger other highly indebted in permanent economic depression members such as Spain and Portugal to possibly also declare their intentions for an orderly default / exit from the eurozone. Additionally, Germany after 5 years of funding the Greek black hole has finally indicated that Germany would now be prepared to see Greece leave the euro-zone, so signaling that euro-zone would no longer bend over backwards to keep Greece within the Euro-zone.

This will probably trigger a series of Euro-zone summits during the year where the terms for exit from the Euro-zone will be agreed upon. What is unknown at this time is whether Greece will also have to leave the European Union as the Lisbon Treaty implies. My opinion is that Greece will be allowed to remain in the European Union to salvage something from the unfolding chaos.

Hyperinflation Consequences for Greece

In conjunction with the summits formulating the mechanisms for Greece and potentially others leaving the euro-zone there will be real world consequences for Greece in terms of the currency in circulation as a new currency would need to be printed and distributed (we may in the interim see vouchers or even photocopier paper currency used to pay public sector wages) causing chaos across Greece in terms of the standing of contracts such as Mortgages made in Euro's but no longer honoured in Euro's triggering a collapse of its banking system as no one will want to hold its new currency. This would result in a continuation of the slide of the existing Euro and a collapse in the value of the new currency (when eventually printed) potentially in the form of an hyperinflation panic event, i.e. we will see the Greek inflation rate soar as a consequence of Greece no longer being able to buy any goods or services from abroad due to the capital markets being closed to Greece. I had previously estimated that Greece could experience an annualised rate of at least 30%, which given the nature of the new government that would do nothing to address the requirements of capital markets could probably soar far higher amidst panic driven spike as any money left in Greece flooded out of the country before capital controls came into force.

Greece Exit Consequences for the Euro-zone

All of the weak euro-zone countries are waking up to the fact that they have been in a state of denial because they are NOT Germany they cannot compete against Germany that effectively holds a captured market for its goods and services, and therefore are only delaying the inevitable by remaining in a currency union with Germany that ensures their economies are also in a state of slow motion death spiral of economic collapse. In which respect they are in fact making the economic pain of their populations far worse as a consequence of dragging out economic collapse over many years if not decades rather than months as would have been the case had they had their own currencies and money printing presses such as that deployed by the UK that has successfully used smoke and mirrors inflation to mask the truth that Britain is in a far worse state in terms if indebtedness than most of the euro-zone countries that it has been busy monetizing (stealth cancellation).

Greece exiting the Euro-zone would put immediate pressure on all of the other weak Euro-zone members, with Spain and Portugal the next targets for exit as a consequence of these countries being on the same unserviceable debt fuelled economic collapse trajectories as Greece. In my opinion Spain and Portugal will both exit the Euro-zone within 12 months of Greece leaving.

The following list suggests the probable order of Eurozone exits from the single currency based on debt to GDP coupled with the the level of economic contraction to date.

  • Greece
  • Spain
  • Portugal
  • Italy
  • Belgium
  • France

Though I have to state that courtesy of ECB bond buying, there is no sign of contagion yet in other PIIGS nations as illustrated by low 10 year bond market yields, all of which are trading at well below 2%, apart from Greece's debt that is nudging towards 10%, though even here it is still well below the 2012 crisis highs of over 33%.

The wild card in all of this is Germany for as I originally speculated over 4 years ago (May 2010) Germany may decide to alleviate pressure on the rest Eurozone by planning its own exit. However all this would amount to a desperate belated attempt to buy more time to slow down the rate of collapse of the Euro-zone so as to allow the financial system to better survive a breakup of the whole eurozone.

Consequences of Euro-zone Collapse

Whilst contagion amongst euro-zone members may be a slow motion affair as countries line up one by one line up for an orderly exit, however the contagion amongst the banking sector will be immediate and europe wide as credit markets could freeze once more even despite ECB money printing that has the potential to accelerate the collapse of the euro-zone as the potential bailout costs for preventing financial armageddon soar far beyond the means of any of the euro-zone member states to cover.

Off course the worlds central banks will do their utmost as they did during 2008 and then again in 2012 to prevent financial armageddon by trying to contain the damage through a myriad of means that they are now well rehearsed in such as bank capitalisation's, providing foreign currency swaps, and in the final instance introduction of capital controls and bank bail-ins cyprus style.

The bottom line is that it now looks probable that Greece will leave the Euro-zone within the next 12 months, during which time it will become clearer which other euro-zone members will start to formulate their own exits from the perpetual economic depression of the euro-zone. Especially if after the initial pain (inflation) the Greek economy actually does start to strongly recover which could result in a stampede and collapse of the euro-zone.

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for in-depth analysis and detailed trend forecast delivered to your email in box.

Also see my recent video analysis that explains the UK housing crisis and election forecast.

Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article50331.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2015 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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