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Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

Kate Gives Birth to Coalition Government

Politics / UK Politics May 02, 2015 - 06:22 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Politics

Kate goes into Labour but gives birth to Conservative led Coalition. Britain's broadcast media has been full of irrelevant mind numbing continuous drivel coverage of the birth of the latest Royal, literally all day focused on the doors of St Mary's Hospital waiting for Will and Kate to emerge with their new baby daughter as the BBC, Sky and the rest deemed that of being infinitely more importance to Britains slave population than the impending too close to call general election of which public school boy will be next to dance to the bankster's tune.


Whilst the opinion polls continue to suggest that the election is likely to resolve in an outcome for an Labour-SNP UK breakup government.

Opinion Pollster Seats Forecasts

The opinion pollster seats forecasts average at:

  • Conservatives : 278
  • Labour : 269
  • SNP : 54
  • Lib Dems : 24

The calculations for what form a coalition government could take are extremely complicated if not impossible without resorting to the disastrous outcome that involves the SNP who are determined on destroying the UK i.e.

Conservatives + Lib Dems = 302 - FAIL

Add DUP 8 seats = 310 - FAIL

Whilst Labour + Lib Dems = 293 - FAIL

Which means the ONLY viable / workable outcome would be one that involves the SNP i.e. Labour + SNP = 323 - SUCCESS

Instead as my recent in-depth analysis reiterates that the most probable outcome is for a continuation of the Coalition government hence the title of this article.

01 May 2015 - UK Election Forecast 2015 - Who Will Win?

UK Election Forecast Conclusion

Pulling all of the competing strands together of constituency level election battles favouring the Conservatives and Lib Dems, English fears of an SNP catastrophe and allowing for opinion polls that are skewed towards maximum uncertainty probably more for effect rather than probability, and of course house prices wealth effect as being a focused economic indicator. Then my view remains consistent as of 28th February for the probable outcome for a continuation of the Coalition government with the Tories on at least 296 seats against Labour on 262 as detailed below.

other significant points of difference are on how well the SNP and how badly the Lib Dems will do, as I expect the SNP to win approx 35 seats against pollster expectations of 54, and Lib Dems at least 30 seats against pollsters forecasting 24.

UK General Election May 2015 Forecast Conclusion

My forecast conclusion is for the Conservatives to win 296 seats at the May 7th general election, Labour 2nd on 262 seats, with the full seats per political party breakdown as follows:

Therefore the most probable outcome is for a continuation of the ConDem Coalition government on 326 seats (296+30) where any shortfall would likely find support from the DUP's 8 seats.

The alternative is for a truly messy Lab-Lib SNP supported chaotic government on 327 seats (262+30+35) which in my opinion would be a truly disastrous outcome for Britain, nearly as bad as if Scotland had voted for independence last September.

Another possibility is that should the Conservatives do better than forecast i.e. secure over 300 seats but still fail to win an overall majority, then they may chose to go it alone with the plan to work towards winning a May 2016 general election.

The bottom line is that the opinion polls do not reflect how people will actually vote on May 7th when they are faced with a stark choice of steady as she goes ConDem government or take a huge gamble on Ed Milliband's Labour party. So in my opinion several millions of voters will chose to play it safe with ConDem which thus is the most probable outcome.

Also available a youtube video version of my forecast:

The bottom line is that Britain's voters are not stupid, they have not forgotten that the last Labour government passed on an economy that was literally teetering on the edge of collapse and that 4 of the past 5 years of pain are as a consequence of attempting to deal with the last Labour governments debt crisis, albeit with a mixed results with the work perhaps only 1/3rd done.

"When I arrived at my desk on the very first day as chief secretary, I found a letter from the previous chief secretary to give me some advice, I assumed, on how I conduct myself over the months ahead.

"Unfortunately, when I opened it, it was a one-sentence letter which simply said 'Dear chief secretary, I'm afraid to tell you there's no money left,' which was honest but slightly less helpful advice than I had been expecting," - David Laws, May 2010

"Dear Chief of Secretary

I'm afraid there is no money. Kind regards - and good luck!

Liam Byrne" - May 2010

Nevertheless, today's UK economy when compared against virtually every other major western nation on most economic measures is on a far more positive footing and trend trajectory that many years from now with the benefit of hindsight will be seen as having been at the beginnings of a 7 year long economic boom. Many of Britain's hard working voters will recall come election day of where the UK economy was in 2010 and to where it has arrived today and thus the election outcome will not be as close as the opinion polls suggest despite millions of Labour vested interested voters parked on benefits for life, the public sector paper pushers and not forgetting Labours recent 4 million imported voters, where should out of control immigration continue over the next 5 years then that virtually ensures a Labour 2020 election victory.

Therefore come May 8th virtually all pollsters will have egg on their faces as the mainstream media will have flushed untold millions down the drain on commissioning opinion polls that turned out to be WRONG just as the polls were wrong in the run up to the Scottish referendum that was never a 50/50 proposition which at the time I concluded was mainly so as to allow pollsters to sell opinion polls and the mainstream press to sell copy and so it is the case with today's election campaign.

UK Saved From I.S. Threat But Scottish Independence Nightmare is Not Over!

There is another reason as well for why the polls were so close and that is one of SALES, the polling industry SELLING a tight election so that the gullible mainstream press would buy their polling services. Therefore painting a picture of a tight race by manipulating the data will have turned out to be a huge money spinner for the polling agencies.

My article concluded in the most probable forecast for the outcome of the result would be for at least show a 10% gap between NO and YES, and definitely not reflective of the mass hysteria.

Therefore the most probable outcome is inline with the polling ranges of before the YES campaigns intimidation and fear phase began to play a prominent role in the frenzy of campaigning of September that rather than a 50/50 tight race is more probably going to result in at least a 55% NO vote victory, and I would not be surprised if the NO vote even breaks above 60%!

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for continuing in-depth analysis and concluding trend forecasts.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2015 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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