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Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019

UK Immigration Crisis Could Prompt BREXIT, Propelling Britain Out of EU Despite German Factor

Politics / Immigration May 22, 2015 - 04:18 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Politics

The latest immigration statistics once more bring home the stark reality that the UK has no control over its borders, where rather than annual net immigration in the tens of thousands as David Cameron promised at the start of his 2010 Premiership, instead it has once more soared by 50% to 318,000 for 2014, which makes a mockery of every promise and pledge that the Conservatives have made for the past 5 years of not just controlling immigration but on public services and housing, for none of the promises will be fulfilled if the nations population is being artificially inflated by over 300,000 per year which is in addition to the 250,000 natural growth (births-deaths).


The latest immigration statistics out of the ONS once more illustrate the magnitude of the Conservative / Coalition governments own failures to control immigration where to all intents and purposes the past 5 years have just marked a continuation of the Labour immigration catastrophe that set in motion a 15 year long immigration mega-trend for importation of over 4 million people where approx 90% of the adults were expected to vote Labour (90% on benefits such as tax credits).

When David Cameron took power in 2010 he promised that he would cut net immigration towards the end of the parliament to the tens of thousands from the then disastrous annual figure of 205,000, instead the latest data from the ONS shows that net immigration has continued to SOAR to a level far higher level than in 2010 to now stand at 318,000 for the year ending December 2014, a rise of 50% on the previous year.

"Overall, net immigration would be kept in the tens of thousands, rather than the current rate of hundreds of thousands”. - David Cameron 2010

The bottom line is that the UK government has no control over Britain's immigration crisis which is ACCELERATING and is EXPONENTIAL where the Conservative Government has failed to do anything to control what remains out of control immigration. And remember that the official statistics do not include illegal immigration totaling at least 800,000.

Out of Control Immigration and the UK Housing Crisis

Nothing illustrates the consequences of continuing out of control immigration more than its impact on the UK housing market, where Conservative election promises to build 200,000 homes per year will prove totally worthless in wake of the immigration Tsunami against which housing building cannot even keep pace with new demand let alone deal with the existing crisis, especially when one considers that the UK population is already growing naturally by about 250,000 per year which means that even if the promised 200,000 homes were built, then it will not be enough to keep pace with population increasing by 550,000 per year, let alone that far fewer homes will probably be built of approx 140,000 per year.

The following graph illustrates that successive governments instead of doubling house building during the immigration crisis instead the exact opposite has taken place as far fewer houses were built each year during the noughties. The ratio of average household size is still trending lower which means that even if the UK population suddenly stopped increasing then the falling household size ratio towards 2.15 by 2030 would still imply EXTRA demand for 1.25 million properties to be built just to stand still.

UK house building and population growth

The below graph further illustrates the ratio between the accumulative change in population since 1970 against the accumulative number of new housing builds also since 1970 as an over crowding ratio overlayed with UK house prices that illustrates the worsening trend in the level of over crowding due to inability of new supply to meet new demand that just keeps accumulating each year.

This illustrates the change in trend that started to take place during the mid 1980's that coincided with the Thatcher governments reversal of the policy for the construction of social housing and implementation of the right to buy scheme that to date has resulted in the sale of over 2 million socially owned local council housing that fueled the property boom of the nineties AND noughties, the trend that was set in motion was for the inability of supply to keep pace with population growth which ensured continuously persistent upward pressure on house prices that despite the great recession of 2008-2009 still showed an accelerating trend as new build supply that currently stands at an estimated 140k per year is set against government estimates for a requirement of at least 250k properties per year, with 300k a more realistic estimate when the trend for a falling household size is taken into account, which thus ensures that the UK's over crowding situation is expected to continue to worsen year on year going forward, especially if the size of average households continues to shrink which would require about 70,000 new builds per year even if the population stopped increasing.

And this analysis does not even consider the fact that each year the total number of properties remaining empty continues to rise either as a consequence of being for sale, let, legal issues or falling derelict. This totals now more than 1 million empty properties at any one time, a number which despite demand looks set to continue to rise as many of the derelict buildings will only come back on the market when they have been demolished and rebuilt, so erroneously counted as new builds when they should be classed as rebuilds.

The bottom line is that the immigration induced UK housing crisis is being primed to explode! Britain is literally being sleep walked towards having to painfully deal with its extreme consequences due to the failure of successive governments to take pre-emptive action before the crisis explodes, which it will probably do some time before the 2020 General Election, forcing politicians to think the unthinkable in an attempt to bribe voters.

Immigration Crisis Could Prompt Britain to Leave the European Union

Britain's housing crisis represents just one example of the consequences of the ongoing out of control immigration crisis that impacts on ALL areas of life in Britain from jobs where over 50% of new jobs go to immigrants, to wages as migrant workers depress wages, to access to public services such as the NHS and welfare with ever extending waiting lists for treatment, to schools that are full to bursting point due to near 1 million imported children, all of which feeds into severe consequences for the outcome of the forthcoming EU referendum.

However, the truth is that no matter how loudly the UKIPers and Tory right shout about wanting to get out of a corrupt and undemocratic EU that costs Britain a net £13 billion per year to remain a member of, British exit was never seen as being remotely probable, and it is not just as a consequence of the establishment from big business, to a myriad of institutions, and not least that 610 of 650 MP's are against a UK exit.

That and the primary reason why most of the people of Britain would vote NO to a BREXIT, one that no one discusses at all in the mainstream press which is the GERMAN FACTOR. For it appears to have been forgotten that the primary reason for the creation of the European Union is to CONTROL GERMANY, to lock Germany in socially, politically and economically so that it does not start another european war because everyone understands that Europe would not survive another such war.

Therefore on face value, I would expect a referendum to at least conclude in a 70% YES vote to stay within the European Union. However, a continuous 15 year long failure of UK politicians of ALL parties to deal with out of control immigration has literally been wearing the British public down each year where net immigration figures such as we are witnessing day could be the straw that breaks the camels back as the British public say 'enough is enough' and despite the undeniable logic of keeping a tight noose around Germany's neck, could vote to EXIT the European Union the consequences of which could be that it would destabilise the European Union so that each of the member states nooses around Germany start also slacken if not break that many decades from now could be free to embark on another run at creating Lebensraum for the master race as history is once more re-written of what Germany is and where it is coming from.

The journalists and political pundits may have forgotten this but the Jews haven't. For Israel has not been busy for the past 40 years building an arsenal of over 300 nukes and ballistic missiles to deliver them as a defence against the arabs and persians, where events persistently demonstrate are barely able to mobilise against their own people to prevent from disintegrating into civil wars let alone attack the likes of Israel. No, the real reason for the Israeli nuclear war machine is to ensure Germany NEVER commits genocide against the Jewish people again.

Though ironically Israeli's (European Jews) in Palestine are increasingly acting as a 'master race' in regards to the indigenous palestinian people, that amounts to a slow burn holocaust as Israel seeks to carve out Lebensraum across the middle east.

Whilst it is too early to say if the consequences of the immigration crisis would prompt an improbable BREXIT, but I would no longer rate the UK remaining within the European Union as a 70% voting certainty, rather the YES vote has now drifted down towards 60%, and so give it another year or 2 until the referendum, then coupled with ongoing out of control immigration we could yet be standing at the precipice of a 50/50 decision where in my opinion an British Exit would unleash forces that could eventually consume Europe and much of the world with it.

For more on Britians' immigration crisis see my recent articles and videos :

Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article50792.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2015 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

zahlen2k
22 May 15, 11:13
Germany

Hi Nadeem

Do you think leaving the EU would be economically beneficial for the UK? Also do you think there is any appetite within Germany to develop an army, or expand territory? Doesn't seem likely to me? they seem very pro business.

Thanks

Z


Nadeem_Walayat
22 May 15, 18:40
BREXIT - Germany

Leaving the EU would be a net loss to the UK economy, difficult to say by how much, perhaps about 6% of GDP.

Today's Germany NO, but Germany of 20-30 years later in a disintegrated EU? History suggests it is probable.

Best

NW


zahlen2k
23 May 15, 17:58
Germany

Thanks alot, much appreciated!


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