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Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

Independant Scotland 1 Year on, UK Civil War If the SNP Fanatics Had Succeeded

Politics / UK Politics Aug 30, 2015 - 08:40 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Politics

What to know what would have happened if the SNP fanatics had succeeded in convincing the Scottish electorate into voting for independence?

Well the following video gives an idea of the path that not just Scotland would have been set upon but the whole of the UK as Scottish independence would have unleashed forces that would literally have torn the nation apart, something that the SNP fanatics continue to remain blind to today, this despite the fact of the oil price collapse of 2015 which alone would have collapsed the Scottish economy.


by SaveTheChildren (youtube)

A year ago the SNP fanatics were busy galvanising the gullible masses with a stream of heart tugging propaganda into convincing the Scots to effectively vote to commit suicide by leaving the UK which I liberally warned of the consequences of in dozens of articles and several videos at the time of catastrophe that lay in store for Scotland which would be the polar opposite of the SNP's BS the reality of which would literally include the breakup of an Independant Scotland and the remaining UK as excerpted below:

Sep 07, 2014 - Scottish Independence YES Vote Panic - Scotland Committing Suicide and Terminating the UK?

Opening Pandora's Box of Disintegration, the Balkanisation of Britain

The peoples of the United Kingdom are literally being sleep walked towards the edge of the cliff, most completely unaware of the potentially disastrous ramifications for not just Scotland but for what lies in store for the remainder of the United Kingdom following a Scottish Independence YES vote that would break start the process for ripping apart a 300 hundred year old entity of an United Island of Great Britain, which as I have repeatedly warned of during 2014 that a YES vote would literally sow the seeds for the balkanisation of Britain as this Island would literally tear it itself apart as the status quo of what had been taken for granted would no longer exist.

A whole host of news during the past year illustrate that the approaching Scottish Independence vote has already galvanised agitants right across the UK, for instance blowing on the embers for Cornish independence as they wave their aptly coloured Cornish black funeralesk flag that continues with calls of autonomy literally right at the other end of Britain from the Northern and Western Isles with calls for their own devolution from Edinburgh and even calls for their own parliament that sows the seeds not only for the balkanisation of Britain but also for breakup of an newly Independent Scotland that following a YES vote would soon start to disintegrate, as for instance the bordering regions would reassert their separate identity that has far more in common with the North England than much of Scotland, formerly known as the Kingdom of Northumbria that stretches from Edinburgh in the north all the way to the city of Sheffield in the south.

Whilst Alex Salmond, Scotland's Nigel Farage repeatedly plays the Scotland is rich because of North Sea oil card, what he convientely omits is that a significant portion of Scotland's oil reserves lie in the waters of the Northern Isles (Orkney and Shetland). Many people of the Northern Isles see themselves as having far more in common with Norway than Scotland which given the near immediate currency, financial and economic crisis that would follow independence would be fast pulled towards sharing sovereignty for far greater stability with the likes of Norway that could achieve what it could never have done militarily, namely expanding its borders and gaining many western north sea oil fields. Though in all probability the Northern Isles would probably eventually settle as becoming a protectorate of the United Kingdom along the lines of the Isle of Man.

So if Alex Salmond 'King of the Scots' does succeed in his tunnel vision mission for an Independant Scotland then he will likely go down in history as the first and last Prime Minister of Scotland as we know it today, which effectively means a Yes vote on 18th September will be Scotland voting to commit suicide as when the dust settles what remains would be a mere fraction of its current size.

Oil Price Crash and SNP Independent Scotland

Nothing illustrates the magnitude of the potential catastrophe that was the SNP's economic programme for an Independent Scotland (I.S.) that was reliant on an oil price well NORTH of $120 so as to turn Scotland into the promised land of milk and honey, the picture being painted was of an Independant Scotland (I.S.) of a paradise on earth, not that far removed from reality then that which the Syrian I.S. paints for the worlds gullible muslims that crave a fast track to paradise.

With every dip in the oil price SNP propaganda responded with the price drop being just temporary instead as we have seen a year on the economic collapse of an Independent Scotland would have been spectacular even worse then that of Bankrupt Greece, e SNP's Economic Baldrick-esk Master Plan for an Independent Scotland that was wholly based on reaping huge rewards from North Sea oil exports where SNP propaganda had convinced many Scots to Vote to effectively commit economic and social suicide by voting Yes in last Septembers referendum that came close to achieving the catastrophe on the basis of propaganda implying upwards of £7 billion in North Sea oil tax revenues that would be raised to finance Scotland's budgetary black hole, which in the fever pitch of the campaign had reached the heights of £11 billion so as to exaggerate the degree to which Scotland could prosper and fill the void left by the withdrawal of the English subsidy that currently amounts to £9 billion per year.

Even the Governor of the Bank of England stepped in at the start of the year by warning "the Scottish economy was heading for a “negative shock”.

The problem with SNP economic propaganda is that it was based on a oil price being well NORTH of $100 per barrel, however a sub $50 oil price does not just mean that an Independent Scotland would have made half the forecast tax revenues i.e. £3.5 to £5 billion, instead the reality is that an Independant Scotland today would be forced to bear COSTS in support of a collapsing oil industry, just as the UK government has stepped in to support the Scottish oil industry to the tune of £1.5 billion. So an Independant Scotland would today have a negative cash flow from North Sea oil of about -1.5 billion a year and it is this that illustrates the magnitude of the catastrophe that Scotland only just missed if they had fallen for SNP nationalist fanaticism.

However the rhetoric from SNP fanatics has not changed and given the impending May 2017 EU referendum then Scotland could still vote to commit suicide and thus trigger a series of 'inevitable' consequences that turns the video warning into a reality, much as which has taken place in Syria and Ukraine.

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for my next in-depth analysis and concluding detailed trend forecasts that include the following planned newsletters -

  • Crude Oil Price Forecast 2015
  • Stocks Bull Market Over?
  • US Dollar Trend Forecast Update 2015
  • Islam 3.0

Also subscribe to our Youtube channel for notification of video releases and for our new series on the 'The Illusion of Democracy and Freedom', that seeks to answer questions such as 'Did God Create the Universe?' and how to 'Attain Freedom' as well as a stream of mega long term 'Future Trend Forecasts'.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2015 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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