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EU Migration Crisis and Population Density, Why Cameron is Right, England Really is Full

Politics / Immigration Sep 03, 2015 - 11:55 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Politics

In the wake of Germany's announcement to take upto 800,000 refugees this year and images of dead refugees washed up on the shores of Turkey, David Cameron and the UK government are coming under intense pressure to change their stance on refugee migration that continues relentlessly as each bordering nation acts to funnel over one hundred thousand migrants each month northwards towards destinations such as Germany and Britain.


The Guardian - Migration crisis: pressure mounts on Cameron over refugees

Pressure comes from senior UN official and rising number of Tory MPs after pictures of drowned Syrian boy are widely published

However, the growing hysteria in the mainstream press and blogosfear masks the fact that the population density of England is several orders of magnitude greater than any other major european nation as the below table illustrates based on House of Commons, UK and EU statistical agencies data.

  Population Density / sq km New Migrants to Match England's Density
England 419  
Holland 408 .45mill
Belgium 370 1.5mill
Wales 258 1.8mill
Germany 226 68.8mill
Italy 205 62.6mill
Poland 130 85.6mill
Portugal 116 27.4mill
Hungary 108 28.8mill
France 105 197mill
Spain 94 161mill
Romania 89 74mill
Greece 82 44.3mill
Bulgaria 66 38.8mill

What stands out from the table is the overwhelming disparity in capacity to accommodate migrants, especially for depopulated eastern european nations many of whom are demonstrating ZERO inclination to offer asylum to refugees despite having exported many millions of their own people westwards. For instance Poland would need to experience an influx of 85 million migrants to equal the population density of England.

Meanwhile the finger wagging Germans could allow 68 million migrants to settle in Germany and still be less densely populated than England. Whilst France would need to increase its population by near 200 million! Even a constantly bleating Greece would require a 44 million jump in its population to equal the state of over crowding in England.

Therefore the migration crisis debate needs to seriously take into account the huge disparity in population density that has brought public services such as health, housing and education in many areas of southern England to the brink of collapse.

The clear solution to the migrant / refugee crisis is to settle migrants entering the EU in the depopulated eastern european nations as well as the likes of France, Spain and Germany all of whom have ample capacity to accommodate many tens of millions of migrants. Of course whilst 80% of the migrants are genuine refugees, however as soon as they gain entry into the European Union then they immediately switch to behaving as economic migrants by demanding migration out of the depopulated nations such as Hungry, Greece, and even France to the likes of over populated England and Holland.

UK Immigration Crisis Fast Morphing into a Catastrophe

If David Cameron does give into european union pressure to open the flood gates Germany style then as I recently warned of that the migration crisis could soon turn into full blown catastrophe as an additional +1/2 million migrants seek to enter the UK which would be on top of the existing 630k per year that would near triple the already disastrous record net migration figure of 330k towards an net migration total of 1 million per year!

28 Aug 2015 - UK Immigration Crisis Hits New Record, Trending Towards Becoming a Catastrophe

Immigration Crisis Set to Become a Catastrophe

As the above table illustrates that the rate of immigration is ACCELERATING with the latest annual figures 50% higher than the average of the past 11 years. Therefore the trend implies total additional immigration over the next 10 years could near 10 million, with net new immigration of near 5 million that will have huge social, economic and cultural consequences that today's politicians remain largely blind to until the SHTF when the number of foreign born people once more doubles from 9 million today to 19 million 10 years from now.

Britain, Europe are not just dealing with the likes of the Syrian civil war that has produced over 4 million refugees, most of whom are determined to find their way to the likes of Germany and Britain, but also the fact Africa continues to undergo a population explosion, where the continents population looks set to DOUBLE once more over the next 30 years from 1.1 billion to 2.2 billion that will result in a migration exodus that will be exponentially greater than that which is taking place today, which implies an trend for ever increasing number of economic migrants from Africa alone, let alone the continuing increasing flows from a more preposterous Asia (China) and elsewhere who can afford to pay people smugglers for transportation to a new life in the UK.

Therefore, whilst today the mainstream broadcast press crisis coverage of immigration is focused on the camps of tens of thousands of migrants on Europe's southern borders and even some 5,000 near the port of Calais. However Britain should prepare itself for what the trend implies looks inevitable that within the next 10 years as the state services buckle and break under the weight of numbers in response to which the government will be forced to introduce unprecedented measures such as cordoning off pockets of Southern England into self contained migrant camps of first in the tens of thousands and ultimately numbering in the hundreds of thousands in an attempt to contain the consequences of the immigration catastrophe that is the implied as a consequence of 10 million immigrants entering the UK (net 5 million) over the next 10 years that will be in addition to natural population growth of at approx 4 million.

In fact 10 years from now the UK will likely have whole villages and even towns cordoned off as permanent migrant camps in an attempt to contain the catastrophe.

The UK Housing Market and Out of Control Immigration

Nothing illustrates the consequences of continuing out of control immigration more than its impact on the UK housing market, where Conservative election promises to build 200,000 homes per year will prove totally worthless in wake of the immigration Tsunami against which housing building cannot even keep pace with existing demand let alone deal with new demand, especially when one considers that the UK population is already growing naturally by about 300,000 per year which means that even if the promised 200,000 homes were built, then it will not be enough to keep pace with population increasing by 600,000 per year, let alone that far fewer homes will probably be built at the rate of approx 140,000 per year.

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for my next in-depth analysis and concluding detailed trend forecasts that include the following planned newsletters -

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By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2015 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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