The rate on the 10-year US Treasury Note (ticker symbol TNX) had its best week since June last week with a gain of 8.46% to close at 23.33. It even printed an engulfing bullish candlestick on Friday.

Most of the week’s gain came on Friday’s strong non-farm payroll report. The breakout from the June bear trendline would seem to open the door for a return to the June high near 24.75 but…

Cycles point to a high near last Friday and a decline into late-November or early December.
The NY Fed report of Primary Dealer activity shows a dramatic dumping of positions by dealers. It appears that dealers aren't waiting for the December rate hike to eliminate risk from their balance sheets.

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Ed Carlson, author of George Lindsay and the Art of Technical Analysis, and his new book, George Lindsay's An Aid to Timing is an independent trader, consultant, and Chartered Market Technician (CMT) based in Seattle. Carlson manages the website Seattle Technical Advisors.com, where he publishes daily and weekly commentary. He spent twenty years as a stockbroker and holds an M.B.A. from Wichita State University.

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