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Urgent Stock Market Message

David Chamberlain Cameron, Britain's Last Chance for Freedom From Emerging European Super State

Politics / UK EU Referendum Feb 03, 2016 - 07:17 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat


Britain's Prime Minister, David Cameron emerged Tuesday waving a piece of paper Chamberlain style of a 'draft' agreement that follows several months of negotiations that had the PM running around europe begging the likes of Donald Tusk (a former Polish Prime Minister) and former eastern block nations for some return of sovereignty. A piece of paper that is heavy on printed pages but light on anything that even comes close to matching the Conservative Manifesto pledges of a series of red lines ahead of Britain's EU In / Out referendum.

The full text of the 'draft' gobbledygook agreement can be read here - EU UK Draft or Daft Agreement By Donald Tusk

Unfortunately for David Cameron and despite his best efforts at putting up a propaganda smoke screen of success, the 'draft' agreement fails to deliver anything of substance, falling far short of ALL of David Cameron's so called red-line pledges -

Benefits Ban for Four Years

A ban on both in work and out of work benefits such as Tax credits and Housing benefit for four years that currently amount to a transfer payment from the UK tax payer to Eastern Europe of an estimated £15 billion per year.

Outcome: No Benefits Ban, instead the EU will decide tapering of benefits if any which is pending approval from individual member states, some of whom may or may not agree to any tapering.

Child Benefit Ban

David Cameron proposed that that the UK would no longer pay for the children of migrants living abroad.

Outcome: No Ban, child benefit will continue with some tweaking on the rate of payments inline with local rates, subject to heavy recipient nations such as Poland and Hungary agreeing to such reductions in UK tax payer child benefit subsidy.

Out of Control Immigration EMERGENCY BREAK

Whilst the eastern european states balk at letting even a couple of thousand Syrian refugees into their economically and socially backward states, in the meantime have been busy sending 1/2 million economic migrants per annum to profit from Britain's in work benefits and welfare state.

Recent ONS data continues to show a record busting net migration figure of 336,000 in the year to June 2015, an increase in the rate migration of 32% on 2014. Which literally translates into a DAILY flood of a net 1000 people turning up on Britain's shores and demanding housing, education and school places, jobs with benefits such as tax credits, health & social services that have been buckling, breaking and ultimately freezing as the social housing has in many cities already for several years in the wake of a 15 year long trend of out of control immigration.

The immigration statistics break down into the following facts:

Total immigration Year to June 2015 636k
Total emigration Year to March 2015 300k
Net immigration Year to March 2015 336k
Total Immigration since 2004 6.3 million
Total Emigration since 2004 3.8 million
Net Immigration since 2004 2.5 million


Key points that stand out from the ONS data release is the doubling in Romanian and Bulgarian immigrants over the preceding year, something that is being felt hard in cities right across the UK such as Sheffield that is facing a huge crisis in housing, school places and social cohesion that is consuming local council budgets like a black hole to deal with the consequences of.

Another key point that the mainstream press has apparently missed is that the net figures mask the reality of what the gross immigration figure of 636,000 implies, which effectively means that the impact of immigration is DOUBLE that which the headline figure of 336k suggests i.e. in terms of social cohesion and housing and services for those pockets of the UK most effected by immigration such as the South East and the inner cities.

David Cameron promised that the UK would be able to control its borders, choosing who to let in.

Outcome: No control over UK borders, instead there will be a temporary emergency break on benefits where a member state is experiencing a migrant crisis. However whether this brake can be triggered will be at the sole discretion of the European Union and NOT the member state. Net effect ZERO impact on continuing out of control immigration.

Immigration Crisis to Get Much Worse

Britain, Europe are not just dealing with the likes of the Syrian civil war that has produced over 4 million refugees, most of whom are determined to find their way to the likes of Germany and Britain, but also the fact Africa continues to undergo a population explosion, where the continents population looks set to DOUBLE once more over the next 30 years from 1.1 billion to 2.2 billion that will result in a migration exodus that will be exponentially greater than that which is taking place today, which implies an trend for ever increasing number of economic migrants from Africa alone, let alone the continuing increasing flows from a more preposterous Asia (China) and elsewhere who can afford to pay people smugglers for transportation to a new life in the UK as I have covered in depth in the following video analysis -

Therefore, whilst today the mainstream broadcast press crisis coverage of immigration is focused on the camps of tens of thousands of migrants on Europe's southern borders and even some 5,000 near the port of Calais. However Britain should prepare itself for what the trend implies looks inevitable that within the next few years already buckling and highly stressed state services will break under the weight of numbers in response to which the government will be forced to introduce unprecedented measures such as cordoning off pockets of Southern England into self contained migrant camps of first in the tens of thousands and ultimately numbering in the hundreds of thousands in an attempt to contain the consequences of the immigration catastrophe that is the implied as a consequence of 10 million immigrants entering the UK (net 5 million) over the next 10 years that will be in addition to natural population growth of at approx 4 million.

In fact 10 years from now the UK will likely have whole villages and even towns cordoned off as permanent migrant camps in an attempt to contain the crisis.

I covered Britain's housing crisis consequences of out of control immigration in the following comprehensive video analysis -

Youtube 26 Mins -

Treaty Change

And lastly the deal was supposed to involve a treaty change so as to make the deal legally binding on all member states. Instead there will be no treaty change which means even if today's eastern european governments agree to the UK EU deal, i.e. in the run up to the UK referendum. However, they can afterwards change their policy towards the UK and vote for Britain to SCRAP today's deal in its entirety which is probably what the eastern european states have in mind.

Britain's Last Chance to Gain Freedom from Emerging European Super State

What most pundits fail to recognise or lack experience of is trend and momentum both of which for the past 40 years have been moving in one direction that for the emergence of a highly centralised European super state that the financial crisis and subsequent economic depression of southern europe is accelerating the trend towards.

So whilst it is too late for the euro-zone members who for better or worse are locked into a death embrace that has all but nullified democracy for most of the euro-zone states as the elections in Greece, Spain and Italy have clearly demonstrated the lack for even radical governments such as Syriza to do anything other than obey their German paymasters who control the euro currency and can within a couple of weeks bring fellow euro-zone members to the brink of collapse as was repeatedly demonstrated by Greece last year.

Thus, for Britain the saving grace of not being in the euro-zone offers the UK a unique final opportunity to make the choice of either FREEDOM or become another satellite state revolving around a German centre that will increasingly dictate terms and conditions.

Therefore, given that there would probably not be another referendum for at least 20 years, then this really is Britain's VERY LAST CHANCE. There WON'T be another opportunity because with each passing year the price for a BREXIT increases, and we are not that far off from the point of no return when an exit would result in an economic collapse, much of the situation the euro-zone members have been since they signed up to scrap their currencies and join the Euro-zone.

Of course both the LEAVE and the REMAIN camps put out a lot of propaganda and spin on the others consequences. For LEAVE it's a case of everything smelling of roses in a Britain that has been freed from increasing European bureaucracy and interference, that would be in full control of Britain's borders. Whilst the REMAIN camp paints a picture of FEAR, of economic and financial catastrophe coupled with punitive terms for exit that would seek to punish Britain for daring to exit the euro-zone, so much for so-called european unity built on common purpose and friendship instead the European Union is increasingly a club of FEAR and PARALYSIS.

The Price for Freedom

The truth is that a BREXIT WILL BE ECONOMICALLY PAINFUL despite all of the benefits of being outside of the E.U. The cost of BrExit will be anywhere from 2% to as high as 5% of GDP if the euro-zone is determined to make an example of Britain to act as a warning to others by raising punitive tariffs on trade. However remember that attaining FREEDOM ALWAYS carry's a PRICE, in which respect even the worst case scenario for a 5% loss of GDP in the grand scheme of things does not compare against the infinitely greater price the people of Britain paid for their freedom in both past World Wars and so it is now THIS generations turn to pay a price for the freedom of future generations.

What the people of Britain need to fully understand is that this really is their VERY LAST CHANCE for Freedom!

Though given the backtracking of Schengen currently underway, and Greece, well still bankrupt then the European project could yet unravel all on its own even BEFORE a BrExit referendum is held! In fact a BrExit would likely be THE nail in the European Unions coffin that would literally start to disintegrate and it could all unravel quite quickly as I have been warning of for some time:

23 Sep 2015 - Poland, Czech, Slovakia and Hungary Refugee Hypocrisy After Flooding UK with 4 Million Economic Migrants

The bottom line is that the migration crisis as did just a few weeks ago the euro debt crisis illustrate that the European Union is BROKEN and is trending towards an apocalypse of sorts the magnitude of which cannot be discerned at this point in time. So this is a wake up call for the people of Britain to vote to LEAVE THE E.U. before it starts to disintegrate in unpredictable and probably very violent ways!

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter (only requirement is an email address) for the following forthcoming analysis -

  • UK interest Rates 2016
  • US Interest Rates 2016
  • US Dollar Trend Forecast
  • Stock Market Trend Forecast 2016
  • US House Prices Forecast 2016 and Beyond
  • Gold and Silver Price Forecast 2016

Source and Comments:

By Nadeem Walayat

Copyright © 2005-2016 (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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