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Why 95% of Traders Fail

British Pound BrExit Plunge Press Panic! FACT: Helps Britain WIN Currency War!

Currencies / British Pound Feb 22, 2016 - 07:23 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Currencies

The mainstream press today illustrated the magnitude of the depth of their ignorance of the markets as right across the spectrum from the likes of the BBC, to Channel 4 News to the myriad of dieing broadsheet publications such as the FT, all in unison propagated headlines such as a 'Boris Johnson Causes a Run on the Pound' following a 3 cent dip against the US Dollar on rising BrExit fears as though this was catastrophically bad news, one of panic, though conveniently ignoring the fact that the FTSE closed higher on so called BrExit Panic day.


This despite the same clueless press only a few weeks ago reporting on the likes of Japan implementing NEGATIVE interest rates in an attempt to PUSH the Japanese yen lower as each nation is engaged in completive devaluations against one another currencies so as to boost domestic demand by means of importing inflation and exporting deflation in what is commonly termed as the CURRENCY WARS.

Therefore rather than panic, instead Britain has effectively won a battle in a raging worldwide currency war all without implementing any panic monetary tool or economic policy, which is set against other central banks right across the western world from Switzerland to and the whole Euro-zone block and most recently Japan, cutting their interest rates to below ZERO in panic attempts to push their currencies lower.

This illustrates why most people lose investing or trading because over 90% of that which they are exposed to is written by pseudo analysts, pseudo economists, pseudo traders because in reality they really are journalists, who are GOOD at writing COPY for publication but in reality as today illustrates JUST DO NOT HAVE CLUE! NEVER HAD AND NEVER WILL which is why they tend to miss WHOLE bull and bear markets.

In terms of the technical picture for the GBP, yes sterling is clearly in a bear market, but the worst of the sell off was over a year ago, since which time sterling has been fairly stable, which implies rather than the current sell of marking the start of a new panic sell off stage, instead the downside is very limited and probability actually favouring sterling being nearer to 20% higher a year from now then 20% lower as the clueless mainstream press has been busy propagating today.

And where the EU Referendum is concerned then my opinion remains that this is Britain's VERY LAST chance to vote for FREEDOM from an emerging european superstate as the following two recent videos illustrate why:

https://youtu.be/-oYS6X-63cU

And this video covers the key points of David Cameron's failures to negotiate anything of value that in large part amounted to nothing more than a smoke and mirrors exercise.

https://youtu.be/MF3QLhoxkwQ

And why there always is a price to pay for freedom -

03 Feb 2016 - David Chamberlain Cameron, Britain's Last Chance for Freedom From Emerging European Super State

Britain's Last Chance to Gain Freedom from Emerging European Super State

What most pundits fail to recognise or lack experience of is trend and momentum both of which for the past 40 years have been moving in one direction that for the emergence of a highly centralised European super state that the financial crisis and subsequent economic depression of southern europe is accelerating the trend towards.

So whilst it is too late for the euro-zone members who for better or worse are locked into a death embrace that has all but nullified democracy for most of the euro-zone states as the elections in Greece, Spain and Italy have clearly demonstrated the lack for even radical governments such as Syriza to do anything other than obey their German paymasters who control the euro currency and can within a couple of weeks bring fellow euro-zone members to the brink of collapse as was repeatedly demonstrated by Greece last year.

Thus, for Britain the saving grace of not being in the euro-zone offers the UK a unique final opportunity to make the choice of either FREEDOM or become another satellite state revolving around a German centre that will increasingly dictate terms and conditions.

Therefore, given that there would probably not be another referendum for at least 20 years, then this really is Britain's VERY LAST CHANCE. There WON'T be another opportunity because with each passing year the price for a BREXIT increases, and we are not that far off from the point of no return when an exit would result in an economic collapse, much of the situation the euro-zone members have been since they signed up to scrap their currencies and join the Euro-zone.

Of course both the LEAVE and the REMAIN camps put out a lot of propaganda and spin on the others consequences. For LEAVE it's a case of everything smelling of roses in a Britain that has been freed from increasing European bureaucracy and interference, that would be in full control of Britain's borders. Whilst the REMAIN camp paints a picture of FEAR, of economic and financial catastrophe coupled with punitive terms for exit that would seek to punish Britain for daring to exit the euro-zone, so much for so-called european unity built on common purpose and friendship instead the European Union is increasingly a club of FEAR and PARALYSIS.

The Price for Freedom

The truth is that a BREXIT WILL BE ECONOMICALLY PAINFUL despite all of the benefits of being outside of the E.U. The cost of BrExit will be anywhere from 2% to as high as 5% of GDP if the euro-zone is determined to make an example of Britain to act as a warning to others by raising punitive tariffs on trade. However remember that attaining FREEDOM ALWAYS carry's a PRICE, in which respect even the worst case scenario for a 5% loss of GDP in the grand scheme of things does not compare against the infinitely greater price the people of Britain paid for their freedom in both past World Wars and so it is now THIS generations turn to pay a price for the freedom of future generations.

What the people of Britain need to fully understand is that this really is their VERY LAST CHANCE for Freedom!

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter (only requirement is an email address) for the following forthcoming analysis -

  • US Interest Rates 2016
  • US Dollar Trend Forecast
  • Stock Market Trend Forecast 2016
  • US House Prices Forecast 2016 and Beyond
  • Gold and Silver Price Forecast 2016

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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