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Why 95% of Traders Fail

UK Government Debt Propaganda Continues as OBR Revises Borrowing Higher

Economics / UK Debt Mar 17, 2016 - 03:09 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Economics

The Office of Budgetary Responsibility has once more dutifully pumped out economic propaganda for the UK government in its latest report, where the most notable revision was to increase the amount the government will borrow over its term in office from the original £115 billion (May 2015) to now £178bn, a 54% increase in the amount they said they would borrow at the outset, and which is set against their November 2015 revision higher to £143bn.


However as my original analysis and concluding forecast of May 2015 warned to expect far, far higher borrowings than anything that the economic propaganda mouthpiece of the government (OBR) was pumping out at the time, which I warned could end up being TRIPLE the £115 billion to as high as £350 billion, with my forecast conclusion of £315 billion, some £200 billion higher than OBR propaganda of £115 billion.

New Conservative Government Debt Fantasy

Just as the Coalition government ended up borrowing over £200 billion more than it forecast it would so we can also take the new Conservative governments pledge / promise / forecast / hopes / dream to turn today's £90 billion annual deficit into a fantasy land £5 and £7 billion surpluses in their last 2 years in office, that is just not going to happen!

  • 2014-15 : £90.2bn
  • 2015-16 : £75.3bn
  • 2016-17 : £39.4bn
  • 2017-18 : £12.8bn
  • 2018-19 : £5.2bn surplus
  • 2019-20 : £7bn surplus

Therefore instead of borrowing £115 billion over the next 5 years, I would not be surprised if the so called economic austerity Conservative government actually ends up borrowing TRIPLE the amount i.e. the actual amount borrowed will be closer to £350 billion rather than propaganda of £115 billion.

My forecast conclusion is for the Conservative government to again borrow at least £200 billion more than the OBR is forecasting today i.e. At least +£315 billion by March 2020 as illustrated by the graph with the risk that borrowing could turn out to be as high as +£350 billion which is set against the OBR/ governments forecast of just +£115bn.


So whilst the OBR has today increased the amount the government is expected to borrow by +£62bn from £115 billion to £178 billion. However this is still £135 billion LESS than my forecast of £315 billion as the following updated graph illustrates, which now also includes an additional year forecast by the OBR for 2021 which is equally unrealistic at -£11bn in a perpetual game of smoke and mirrors played on the general public.

The bottom line is to expect the governments' department for economic propaganda to keep revising the amount the government is expected to borrow higher every year by at least another £135 billion this parliament. Whilst at the same time conjuring deep deficit reductions and even surplus forecasts for far distant years that will never materialise just as has been case for every UK government of this century!

But of course the real debt burden is not that which the headline figures imply as a consequence of what I termed as the Quantum of Quantitative Easing (July 2012 The Quantum of Quantitative Easing Inflation is Coming!) that explained in detail where this game of money and debt printing is going in terms of the REAL debt burden, which basically means that the real UK debt burden is about 30% lower than the actual reported debt to GDP ratio suggests because of the fact that the government is paying interest to itself via the Bank of England which in effect acts to cancel 30% of the public debt, which is why the Debt to GDP ratios that academic economists tend to obsess over are meaningless as a consequence of the Quantum of Quantitative Easing, which is why they cannot see the inflationary consequences of what is going on in the asset markets. Know this that the Quantum of Quantitative Easing is PERMANENT, so whilst the monetized debt may still officially exist, it HAS in effect been cancelled because it will NEVER be repaid but instead rolled over in perpetuity as Inflation does its job of eroding away ALL of its value.

For more on the UK economy and prospects for interest rates for over the next 2 years then see my recent in-depth analysis (06 Feb 2016 - UK Interest Rates, Economy GDP Forecasts 2016 and 2017 ) and accompanying video:

https://youtu.be/75y5aLczdy0

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter (only requirement is an email address) for the following forthcoming analysis -

  • US Interest Rates and Economy
  • US Dollar Trend Forecast
  • UK Housing Market Trend Forecast
  • Stock Market Trend Forecast
  • US House Prices Detailed Trend Forecast
  • Gold and Silver Price Forecast

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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