Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Climate Change Mass Extinction - Birds, Bees and Bugs: Going Going Gone - Richard_Mills
2.A Purrrfect Gold Price Setup! - Peter_Degraaf
3.Who Finances America's Borrowing? Recession Indicator for Independent Thinkers Part 2 - F_F_Wiley
4.America’s One-sided Domestic Financial War - Raymond_Matison
5.Gold Price Summer Doldrums - Zeal_LLC
6.Two Key Events Will Unleash Gold - Jim_Willie_CB
7.Billionaire Schools Teacher in NAFTA Trade Talks - Richard_Mills
8.Get Out Of Crypto Cannabis Bubble Before It Pops and Move Into Bargain Basement Miners - Jeb_Handwerger
9.Stock Market Could Pullback for 1-2 weeks, But Medium Term Bullish - Troy_Bombardia
10.G7 Chaos, Central Banks and US Fed Will Drive Stock Prices This Week - Chris_Vermeulen
Last 7 days
The Death of the US Real Estate Dream - 22nd Jul 18
China is Now Officially at War With the US and Japan - 22nd Jul 18
You Buy the Fear in Gold - 22nd Jul 18
Trumponomics Stock Market 2018 - The Manchurian President (1/2) - 21st Jul 18
The Death of Japan's Real Estate Dream - 21st Jul 18
SMIGGLE Amazing Mega Shopping Haul, Pencil Cases, Smigglets and Giant Back Packs! - 21st Jul 18
Cayton Bay Beach Caravan Park Holiday - What's it Like? - 21st Jul 18
Gold Stocks Investment Wanes - 20th Jul 18
Diversifying Your Stock Investing Strategies is Smart Investing - 20th Jul 18
Custom Global Stock Market Indexes May Be Sounding Alarms - 20th Jul 18
S&P 500 Just 2% Below Record High, But There's More Stock Market Uncertainty - 19th Jul 18
Stock Market Technical Picture - 19th Jul 18
Gold Market Signal vs. Noise - 19th Jul 18
Don’t Get Too Bullish on Gold - 19th Jul 18
Bitcoin Price Rallies to Upper Channel – What Next? - 19th Jul 18
Trump Manchurian President Embarrasses Putin By Farcically Blowing his Russian Agent Cover - 19th Jul 18
The Fonzie–Ponzi Theory of Government Debt: An Update - 19th Jul 18
Will the Fed’s Interest Rate Tightening Trigger Another Financial Crisis? - 18th Jul 18
Stock Market Investor “Buy the Dip” Mentality is Still Strong, Which is Bullish for Stocks - 18th Jul 18
Stock Market Longer-Term Charts Show Incredible Potential - 18th Jul 18
A Better Yield Curve for Predicting the Stock Market is Bullish - 18th Jul 18
U.S. Stock Market Cycles Update - 18th Jul 18
Cayton Bay Hoseasons Caravan Park Holiday Summer 2018 Review - 18th Jul 18
What Did Crude Oil - Platinum Link Tell Us Last Week? - 17th Jul 18
Gold And The Elusive Chase For Profits - 17th Jul 18
Crude Oil May Not Find Support Above $60 This Time - 17th Jul 18
How Crazy It Is to Short Gold with RSI Close to 30 - 16th Jul 18
Markets Pay Attention Moment - China’s Bubble Economy Ripe for Bursting - 16th Jul 18
Stock Market Uptrend Continues, But... - 16th Jul 18
Emerging Markets Could Be Starting A Relief Rally - 16th Jul 18
(Only) a Near-term Stock Market Top? - 16th Jul 18
Trump Fee-Fi-Foe-Fum Declares European Union America's Enemy! - 16th Jul 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

5 "Tells" that the Stock Markets Are About to Reverse

Gold and Crude Oil - What Can We Infer from This Relationship?

Commodities / Crude Oil Apr 19, 2016 - 12:13 PM GMT

By: Nadia_Simmons

Commodities

Although the world's largest oil-producing countries met this weekend in Doha, they failed to reach a deal to freeze output at Jan levels as Saudi deputy crown prince Mohammed bin Salman sustained earlier statement that Saudi Arabia would freeze the level of its oil production only if all other major producers (including Iran) did the same. Although Iran supported the freeze, the country didn't agree to cut production until it raises its output to around 4 million barrels per day (to the pre-sanctions levels). What does it mean for crude oil? In our opinion, such developments suggest a renewed battle for crude market share, which would likely translate into lower values of the commodity in the coming days or even weeks. Will our interesting ratios confirm this scenario? Let's jump right into charts (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com) and find out.


Let's start today's article with the oil-to-silver ratio.

On the above chart, we clearly see that although the ratio moved slightly above the long-term red declining line, this improvement was only temporary and the ratio reversed, closing the previous week under this key resistance - similarly to what we saw several times in the past. As you see in all cases, oil bulls were not strong enough to push the ratio higher, which resulted in reversal and declines - not only in the ratio, but also in crude oil. Therefore, looking at the above chart, we think that anther reversal is just around the corner - especially when we factor in the fact that the Stochastic Oscillator is very close to generating a sell signal, which is another negative signal.

Having said the above, let's take a closer look at the gold-to-oil ratio.

The first thing that catches the eye on the above chart is strong negative correlation between the ratio and the price of crude oil. In the previous week, the ratio declined to the 200-day moving average, which in combination with the current position of the CCI and Stochastic Oscillator suggests that another reversal in the coming day(s) is very likely. Why? When we examined the above chart, we noticed similar situation in Oct and Nov 2015. Back then, such combination encouraged bears to act, which translated into higher values of the ratio and declines in crude oil. Therefore, if the history repeats itself once again, we'll likely see another downward move in light crude.

Finishing today's article, we would like to draw your attention to the non-USD (WTIC:UDN ratio) chart of crude oil. As a reminder, UDN is the symbol for the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund, which moves in the exact opposite direction to the USD Index. Since the USD Index is a weighted average of the dollar's exchange rates with world's most important currencies, the WTIC:UDN ratio displays the value of crude oil priced in "other currencies".

From the medium-term perspective, we see that the red dashed resistance line stopped oil bulls and triggered a pullback, which approached the ratio to the 50% Fibonacci retracement earlier this month. Despite this drop, WTIC:UDN rebounded, invalidating earlier breakdown under this line, which resulted in an increase above the March high and a climb to the long-term red declining resistance line (based on Sep 2014 and Jun 2015 highs). Taking this fact into account, the proximity to the 50-week moving average and the current position of the indicators, we think another downswing is just around the corner.

Summing up, as you saw on the above charts, all our ratios suggests that lower values of crude oil are more likely than not. This scenario is also supported by the fact that all hopes of agreement between OPEC members and Russia to freeze output faded after weekend's failure, suggesting a renewed battle for crude market share and lower values of the commodity in the coming days or even weeks.

Thank you.

Nadia Simmons
Forex & Oil Trading Strategist
Przemyslaw Radomski
Founder, Editor-in-chief

Sunshine Profits: Gold & Silver, Forex, Bitcoin, Crude Oil & Stocks
Stay updated: sign up for our free mailing list today

* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Nadia Simmons and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Nadia Simmons and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Nadia Simmons is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Nadia Simmons’ reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Nadia Simmons, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.


© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules