Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2016 September Update
Commodities / Crude Oil Sep 15, 2016 - 01:20 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
At the start of this year the prevailing mood in the oil market was not just one of doom and gloom but of catastrophe as the oil price sunk below $30, skidding by the middle of February to virtually touch $25, a period during which many prominent analysts and investment banks such as Goldman Sachs all of whom were bearish on the prospects for oil price this year even suggesting that the oil price could sink to as low as $10 (Standard Chartered) which meant that the oil producers, the frackers and even a string of nations such as Russia, Nigeria and Venezuela were on the fast track towards going bust as their oil profits that financed state spending budget deficits evaporated.
We'll now 7 months on and the oil market has gradually transformed itself from that of an imminent $10 apocalypse to one of hopeful recovery as the oil price has clawed it's way back relentlessly through a series of critical levels of first $30, $35, $40, and popping above $50 to a high of near $52 for the year! More than DOUBLING from its 2016 low!
In terms of my oil price forecast for 2016, my in-depth analysis of Mid January forecast expectations for the crude oil price to bottom by early February at approx $25, the actual bottom came in at $26 and within the time window for a final bear market bottom and then embarking on a trend towards $60. This video analysis updates what has subsequently transpired and whether to expect deviation from my trend forecast during the remainder of the year.
My next in-depth analysis will seek to map out a trend forecast for the stock market for the remainder of 2016, so ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter to get this in your email in box.
By Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
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