Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold Final Warning: Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - P_Radomski_CFA
2.Fed Balance Sheet QE4EVER - Stock Market Trend Forecast Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3.UK House Prices, Immigration, and Population Growth Mega Trend Forecast - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Gold and Silver Precious Metals Pot Pourri - Rambus_Chartology
5.The Exponential Stocks Bull Market - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Yield Curve Inversion and the Stock Market 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.America's 30 Blocks of Holes - James_Quinn
8.US Presidential Cycle and Stock Market Trend 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Dear Stocks Bull Market: Happy 10 Year Anniversary! - Troy_Bombardia
10.Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off! - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Stock Market Pause Should Extend - 21st April 19
Why Gold Has Been the Second Best Asset Class for the Last 20 Years - 21st April 19
Could Taxing the Rich Solve Income Inequality? - 21st April 19
Stock Market Euphoria Stunts Gold - 20th April 19
Is Political Partisanship Killing America? - 20th April 19
Trump - They Were All Lying - 20th April 19
The Global Economy Looks Disturbingly Like Japan Before Its “Lost Decade” - 19th April 19
Growing Bird of Paradise Strelitzia Plants, Pruning and Flower Guide Over 4 Years - 19th April 19
S&P 500’s Downward Reversal or Just Profit-Taking Action? - 18th April 19
US Stock Markets Setting Up For Increased Volatility - 18th April 19
Intel Corporation (INTC) Bullish Structure Favors More Upside - 18th April 19
Low New Zealand Inflation Rate Increases Chance of a Rate Cut - 18th April 19
Online Grocery Shopping Will Go Mainstream as Soon as This Year - 17th April 19
America Dancing On The Crumbling Precipice - 17th April 19
Watch The Financial Sector For The Next Stock Market Topping Pattern - 17th April 19
How Central Bank Gold Buying is Undermining the US Dollar - 17th April 19
Income-Generating Business - 17th April 19
INSOMNIA 64 Birmingham NEC Car Parking Info - 17th April 19
Trump May Regret His Fed Takeover Attempt - 16th April 19
Downside Risk in Gold & Gold Stocks - 16th April 19
Stock Market Melt-Up or Roll Over?…A Look At Two Scenarios - 16th April 19
Is the Stock Market Making a Head and Shoulders Topping Pattern? - 16th April 19
Will Powell’s Dovish Turn Support Gold? - 15th April 19
If History Is Any Indication, Stocks Should Rally Until the Fall of 2020 - 15th April 19
Stocks Get Closer to Last Year’s Record High - 15th April 19
Oil Price May Be Setup For A Move Back to $50 - 15th April 19
Stock Market Ready For A Pause! - 15th April 19
Shopping for Bargain Souvenirs in Fethiye Tuesday Market - Turkey Holidays 2019 - 15th April 19
From US-Sino Talks to New Trade Wars, Weakening Global Economic Prospects - 14th April 19
Stock Market Indexes Race For The New All-Time High - 14th April 19
Why Gold Price Will “Just Explode… in the Blink of an Eye” - 14th April 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Top 10 AI Stocks Investing to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend

Hillary Emails Disaster Sees Trump Jump 29% in Betting Market Odds, Can He Win?

ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016 Oct 30, 2016 - 05:22 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

A day on from the breaking of the Hillary Emails bombshell and the dust is settling in the betting markets to reveal a market jump in Trumps favour by 29%, that saw betfair's Trump price recover from an clearly unwinnable 6 to now stand at 4.3. Is it enough to win the election? We'll 4.3 is still substantially away from where Trump stood just before the 1st Presidential debate at 2.88, in advance of which I had concluded that given the trend trajectory at that time that Trump despite being behinf in the polls and the betting markets WOULD win the election given the anti-establishment Brexit factor.


Since which time I added the Terminator factor as also working in Trumps favour. Still with less than 9 days to go, it really is proving a tough call on whether these two undocumented factors by the mainstream press, pundits, bookies and markets can achieve a Trump shock and awe victory. Especially given that every other day brings forward a swing in the opposite direction.

The question is what shock news is going to come next ?, and maybe the one after that will it be anti Trump or anti Hillary, it could make all the difference as we count down to election day.

However, despite my primary objective being one of trying to arrive at that which is the most probable outcome, everything I have seen in this process leads me to conclude that Donald Trump is a little bit insane, he clearly can't distinguish the difference between reality and fantasy, so one can imagine if he wins its going to be a very bumpy stock market ride!

US Presidential Election Betfair Market Trend

Date Time (BST) Hillary Trump Comments
25th Sept   1.58 3.05 Trending in Trumps favour
27th Sept 2am 1.57 2.88 Trump peaks just prior to the start of the 1st debate
27th Sept 4am 1.44 3.35 Just after the 1st debate confirming Trump lost.
30th Sept 3am 1.45 3.45 Odds continuing to move against Trump election win
30th Sept 9pm 1.39 3.75 Accelerating meltdown of Trump odds
1st Oct 2pm 1.37 3.85 Still little sign of Trump recovery
4th Oct 9pm 1.35 4.05 Trump continues losing trend
5th Oct 5am 1.36 3.90 Pence wins VP debate
7th Oct 5pm 1.38 3.8 Trump recovery continues
8th Oct 12pm 1.32 4.8 Effect of leaked audio tape of Trump Groping women
9th Oct 8pm 1.25 5.7 Trump campaign in free fall
10th Oct 4.30am 1.27 5.2 Trump wins 2nd Debate.
11th Oct 4pm 1.21 6.2 Trump crashes to new low of 6.4
12th Oct 2am 1.20 6.4 No end in sign to Trump collapse
15th Oct 4pm 1.19 6.6 Trump on life support, may decide to abandon campaign.
20th Oct 1am 1.21 5.8 Trump bounces going into 3rd debate.
23rd Oct 5pm 1.21 6 No sign of recovery, Brexit can't bridge this wide a gap.
28th Oct 1am 1.21 6 No change 5 days on.
30th Oct 5pm 1.33 4.2 Trump Hillary Emails boost.

The huge 7% polls gap that Trump was on just a couple of days ago has now shrunk to 4% with Hillary now averaging on 45.5% against Trump on 41.5%. So it is still all to play for and I will try to come back with a final conclusion in this topsy turvy election campaign that defies logic, rhyme and reason, in the meantime here is my long standing forecast as of 26th September -

25 Sep 2016 - US Presidential Election Forecast 2016 - Trump Riding BrExit Wave into the White House

And lastly here's my last video analysis of 12th of October. But the betting markets say it all, the electorate is very volatile.

And ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter to get my final conclusion in your email in box due within the next few days.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules