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Why 95% of Traders Fail

Hillary Emails Disaster Sees Trump Jump 29% in Betting Market Odds, Can He Win?

ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016 Oct 30, 2016 - 05:22 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

A day on from the breaking of the Hillary Emails bombshell and the dust is settling in the betting markets to reveal a market jump in Trumps favour by 29%, that saw betfair's Trump price recover from an clearly unwinnable 6 to now stand at 4.3. Is it enough to win the election? We'll 4.3 is still substantially away from where Trump stood just before the 1st Presidential debate at 2.88, in advance of which I had concluded that given the trend trajectory at that time that Trump despite being behinf in the polls and the betting markets WOULD win the election given the anti-establishment Brexit factor.


Since which time I added the Terminator factor as also working in Trumps favour. Still with less than 9 days to go, it really is proving a tough call on whether these two undocumented factors by the mainstream press, pundits, bookies and markets can achieve a Trump shock and awe victory. Especially given that every other day brings forward a swing in the opposite direction.

The question is what shock news is going to come next ?, and maybe the one after that will it be anti Trump or anti Hillary, it could make all the difference as we count down to election day.

However, despite my primary objective being one of trying to arrive at that which is the most probable outcome, everything I have seen in this process leads me to conclude that Donald Trump is a little bit insane, he clearly can't distinguish the difference between reality and fantasy, so one can imagine if he wins its going to be a very bumpy stock market ride!

US Presidential Election Betfair Market Trend

Date Time (BST) Hillary Trump Comments
25th Sept   1.58 3.05 Trending in Trumps favour
27th Sept 2am 1.57 2.88 Trump peaks just prior to the start of the 1st debate
27th Sept 4am 1.44 3.35 Just after the 1st debate confirming Trump lost.
30th Sept 3am 1.45 3.45 Odds continuing to move against Trump election win
30th Sept 9pm 1.39 3.75 Accelerating meltdown of Trump odds
1st Oct 2pm 1.37 3.85 Still little sign of Trump recovery
4th Oct 9pm 1.35 4.05 Trump continues losing trend
5th Oct 5am 1.36 3.90 Pence wins VP debate
7th Oct 5pm 1.38 3.8 Trump recovery continues
8th Oct 12pm 1.32 4.8 Effect of leaked audio tape of Trump Groping women
9th Oct 8pm 1.25 5.7 Trump campaign in free fall
10th Oct 4.30am 1.27 5.2 Trump wins 2nd Debate.
11th Oct 4pm 1.21 6.2 Trump crashes to new low of 6.4
12th Oct 2am 1.20 6.4 No end in sign to Trump collapse
15th Oct 4pm 1.19 6.6 Trump on life support, may decide to abandon campaign.
20th Oct 1am 1.21 5.8 Trump bounces going into 3rd debate.
23rd Oct 5pm 1.21 6 No sign of recovery, Brexit can't bridge this wide a gap.
28th Oct 1am 1.21 6 No change 5 days on.
30th Oct 5pm 1.33 4.2 Trump Hillary Emails boost.

The huge 7% polls gap that Trump was on just a couple of days ago has now shrunk to 4% with Hillary now averaging on 45.5% against Trump on 41.5%. So it is still all to play for and I will try to come back with a final conclusion in this topsy turvy election campaign that defies logic, rhyme and reason, in the meantime here is my long standing forecast as of 26th September -

25 Sep 2016 - US Presidential Election Forecast 2016 - Trump Riding BrExit Wave into the White House

And lastly here's my last video analysis of 12th of October. But the betting markets say it all, the electorate is very volatile.

And ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter to get my final conclusion in your email in box due within the next few days.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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