BrExit Tsunami Claims Emperor Renzi's Scalp, Counting Down to End of the EU, Next?ElectionOracle / European Union Dec 06, 2016 - 03:06 AM GMT
The Italian people raged against the machine by ejecting Prime Minister Matteo Renzi from office, a person NO Italian ever elected into office! The former Mayor of Florence who Machiavelli style literally back stabbed his way into the Prime Ministership, which was effectively a coup d'etat! So it's no wonder that Renzi wanted to tamper with Italian constitution so that he could concentrate further powers into his end, eyeing his vision of proclaiming himself the New Emperor of Rome!
Whilst the Italian government is in a state of shock, and most journalists. However the Italian job, unlike Britain's BrExit and Trumps election win were for those who deemed to look a probable event as illustrated by my article of Saturday 3rd of December that concluded despite the BrExit Tsunami wave next targeting Italy, in this instance the betting markets and pollsters were favouring a BrExit outcome as being more probable than not
What about the opinion polls?
Apparently the opinion polls went into blackout mode on 18th November when they were typically giving the NO camp the lead on 53%.
What about the betting markets?
No betfair market but traditional bookies put NO on 1/3 and YES on 2-1. So at least for this vote the pollsters and the bookies are saying a Brexit outcome is more probable than not.
What would Italy being hit by the Brexit wave actually mean?
The only consequence I can see is that Matteo Renzi resigns and likely triggers an early Italian general election. Beyond that everything is rather foggy, but an general election would open the door to the populist 5 Star movement. So whilst a BrExit style anti-establishment result looks likely in Italy, however it does not result in anything like Brexit as it happened in the UK as it has nothing to do with membership of the european union.
And so that which was the most probable has come to pass which surely sends shivers of fear down the european establishments back, as the BrExit Tsunami wave turns its attention to its next target towards an ultimate destination that would mark that just the end of the Euro-zone but the European Union. For the END of the EU is the final destination of the Brexit Tsunami that even today europe's establishment elite just cannot fathom, comprehend, get their head around. Perhaps they need to watch my highly prescient video of March 2016, that's 3 months before Britain's referendum, 8 months before Trumps election win and 9 months before today. For the video makes clear what BREXIT actually means for the EU, the ultimate fate in store for the EU.
The European Union is the author of the european peoples pain. So just as the British establishment elite were shocked into silence in June 2016 so has the Italian elite today.
Just as the american establishment elite were following Donald Trumps apparently impossible election win. Remember the bookies? The pollsters? Both stated Trump had NO CHANCE of winning, IMPOSSIBLE! Here's why it happened and why they got it so badly wrong -
And just as I stated in Saturday's article, Italy is now on the path towards EXITING the Euro-zone and the EU! In fact after Britain, and as things stand today then Italy looks likely to be the NEXT country to leave the EU.
The people of Italy HAVE HAD ENOUGH! They have put up with over 8 YEARS of ECONOMIC DEPRESSION! They have put up with 40% YOUTH UNEMPLOYMNET!, They have put up with AUSTERITY without end! And despite ALL of the PAIN there has been NO GAIN! ZERO! The economy not only remains stagnant but is in an even WORSE state than where it was 8 years ago because today Italy's debt mountain has grown to not 100% of GDP that many economists warn as being dangerously indebted, no Italy's debt mountain is at 140% OF GDP! - ALL PAIN NO GAIN, the people have had ENOUGH! And thus are voting for REAL CHANGE! And not the fake pass the parcel change that takes place during general elections, when nothing really ever changes as the real power has long since been passed onto to the EU in BRUSSELS!
REAL CHANGE IS COMING TO EUROPE!
The BREXIT TSNUMAI is already eyeing its NEXT Target! Netherlands, France, even Germany are in its sights.
Netherlands - March 2017
Is a battle between conservative liberal VVD and the nationalist far right PVV. The opinion polls are currently putting the PVV in the lead on 33% against the VVD on 25%. Therefore the Netherlands are heading for a Brexit like shock result, though given the Dutch proportional representation system virtually ensures no single party can win the election unless they achieve more than 50% of the vote.
France - April 2017
The French presidential election will be a tough battle between centre right Francoi Fillion and far right Marine Le Pen, current betting market odds significantly favour Fillion, which at this time suggests France may avoid a Brexit shock outcome.
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By Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
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