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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: European Union

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Politics

Thursday, March 16, 2017

Dutch and French Electons - Winners are Losers and Left is Right / Politics / European Union

By: Raul_I_Meijer

The Dutch elections on Wednesday have provided a whole bunch of Orwellian narratives. PM Mark Rutte’s right wing VVD party, actually the ‘business’ -or should we say ‘rent-seekers’ in 2017- party, who lost some 20% of the seats they had obtained in the previous parliamentary election in November 2012, down from 41 to 33 seats, is declared the big winner. While Geert Wilders’ very right wing party, PVV, won 25% more seats -it went from 16 to 20- and is the big loser.

Moreover, Rutte’s coalition partner, labor PvdA, gave up 29 out of 38 seats to end up with just 9. That’s a loss of over 75%. Together, the coalition partners went from 79 seats in the 2012 election to 42 in 2017. That’s an almost 50% less. Not that it could prevent Rutte from proudly declaring: “We want to stick to the course we have – safe and stable and prosperous..” Makes you wonder who the ‘we’ are that he’s talking about.

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Politics

Monday, March 13, 2017

Caesar, Turkey and the Netherlands Ides of March / Politics / European Union

By: Raul_I_Meijer

I don’t think Holland realized they planned their election on the Ides of March, don’t remember the date or event ever being mentioned when I lived there as a child. That Washington knew what it was doing when back in 2013 it set the end of the latest debt ceiling compromise to March 15 is not likely either. Nor is Janet Yellen deliberately setting the Fed’s ‘next’ rate hike on the date. They may all, in hindsight, wish they had possessed a little more historical knowledge.

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Politics

Friday, March 10, 2017

The EU May Bend to Keep From Breaking / Politics / European Union

By: STRATFOR

The European Commission is taking a clear-eyed look at Europe's future. On March 1, the institution presented a report proposing five different visions for what the European Union might look like in 2025. The report will doubtless take center stage at the EU summit in Brussels on Thursday and Friday between discussions of such issues as migration, security, defense and the economy. Along with suggesting that member states could integrate at different speeds, the white paper raises the possibility that EU member countries may regain control of some prerogatives currently under Brussels' authority.

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Politics

Friday, February 10, 2017

Tension between Italy, Germany, and the EU Is Growing / Politics / European Union

By: John_Mauldin

BY ANTONIA COLIBASANU : As mentioned in our 2017 forecast, Geopolitical Futures said that the evolution of the Italian banking crisis will force a confrontation between Italy, Germany, and the European Union. The groundwork for this confrontation was laid last year, and the face-off has further evolved already this year.

In December 2016, two Italian members of the European Parliament (MEPs) from the populist Europe of Nations and Freedom groups asked the European Central Bank (ECB) in a letter to explain the “widening balance divergences between individual countries [in the eurozone] since the 2008 crisis.”

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Politics

Sunday, January 29, 2017

Le Pen, France - Sometimes It’s Better To Be Lucky Than Good, Populist Edition / Politics / European Union

By: John_Rubino

In 2015 there was no way the UK would vote to leave the European Union, so Prime Minister David Cameron promised to call a “Brexit” referendum as a cost-free sop to his party’s right wing in the upcoming election. The Conservatives won big, and Cameron kept his promise to run the meaningless referendum. But against all odds and contrary to nearly every election-day poll, Brexit won, flushing Cameron out of politics, pulling the UK out of the EU, and handing a huge victory to a populist coalition led by the UK Independence Pary’s Nigel Farage.

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Politics

Saturday, January 21, 2017

These Are the 3 Main Issues for Europe in 2017 / Politics / European Union

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN AND JACOB L. SHAPIRO : What will the year ahead look like for Europe? 2017 will be another chapter in the European Union's slow unraveling… a process that has been underway for over a decade.

The EU is a union in name only. The transfer of sovereignty to Brussels was never total, and member states are independent countries… each with their own interests at stake.

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Politics

Thursday, January 19, 2017

There’s Probably No Solution For Europe’s Problems / Politics / European Union

By: John_Mauldin

Our fifty states are essentially what the European Union’s founders wanted: a giant free-trade zone with a currency union and fiscal union. It’s working for us in part because our states, while unique, don’t have the centuries of cultural and linguistic diversity that Europe’s do.

The separate languages, cultures, and histories of its nations don’t mean Europe can’t develop better ways cooperate economically; but the EU structure—specifically the European Monetary Union and the euro—clearly isn’t the answer.

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Politics

Wednesday, January 11, 2017

Italy, Germany, and the EU Are on the Brink of a Conflict / Politics / European Union

By: John_Mauldin

BY CHEYENNE LIGON AND ALLISON FEDIRKA : As a new year begins, we look at a key forecast that will bridge 2016 and 2017: the Italian banking crisis. In Geopolitical Futures’ 2016 forecast, we said that the focal point of Europe’s financial crisis would shift from Greece to the Italian banking system. For 2017, we forecast that the evolution of this crisis will eventually force a confrontation between Italy, Germany, and the European Union. Here, we establish a starting point for the looming Italian banking crisis in 2017, which will unfold over many months and have a range of consequences.

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Politics

Thursday, January 05, 2017

There’s No Such Thing as Europe Anymore / Politics / European Union

By: John_Mauldin

BY PATRICK WATSON : The European Union’s founders envisioned an “ever-closer union” that gradually eliminated national distinctions. It didn’t happen, and geopolitical expert George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures says the opposite is now taking shape. “Europe” doesn’t really exist in any meaningful way.

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Politics

Monday, December 12, 2016

2017 Will Be A Pivotal Year For Europe / Politics / European Union

By: John_Mauldin

Many people in the EU disapprove of EU economic policies. Greece is by far the unhappiest with Brussels. Italy is next, with France and Spain not far behind. The UK, where people are angry enough to have voted themselves out of the EU, looks even-tempered in comparison.

That suggests to me that if you offered these other countries a chance to ditch the EU and reassured them that they wouldn’t cause the sky to fall, there are some who might take the leap.

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ElectionOracle

Tuesday, December 06, 2016

BrExit Tsunami Claims Emperor Renzi's Scalp, Counting Down to End of the EU, Next? / ElectionOracle / European Union

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Italian people raged against the machine by ejecting Prime Minister Matteo Renzi from office, a person NO Italian ever elected into office! The former Mayor of Florence who Machiavelli style literally back stabbed his way into the Prime Ministership, which was effectively a coup d'etat! So it's no wonder that Renzi wanted to tamper with Italian constitution so that he could concentrate further powers into his end, eyeing his vision of proclaiming himself the New Emperor of Rome!

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Politics

Tuesday, December 06, 2016

Failed EU - Means an Expanded Dictatorship / Politics / European Union

By: BATR

As the people of the world awaken to the pernicious nature and destructive wreckage of European civilization, the EU technocrats and oligarchs respond with even greater measures of control, repression and intimidation. Yet the prospects that they will be able to maintain their autocratic rule lessons with each populist rebellion against the beasts from Brussels. Induced panic is a tool used to scare the peasants into additional submission. The most obvious method will be a major economic and monetary implosion designed to create fear so that their revered and lauded interdependency necessitates another surrender of national sovereignty.

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Politics

Wednesday, November 30, 2016

The Beginning of the End of the European Union / Politics / European Union

By: Jeff_Berwick

Is this the most important time in the EU’s history?

Italy and Austria take votes at the beginning of December that could destabilize or even end the euro and the EU itself.

This is part of a destabilizing trend that we’ve long noted and anticipated, some 16 months ago with the destruction of the EU’s Schengen agreement that used to stand for free-travel throughout Europe.

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ElectionOracle

Wednesday, November 16, 2016

How Trump's Election Victory Will Galvanize Kindred Spirits in Europe / ElectionOracle / European Union

By: STRATFOR

Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election was cause for celebration among Europe's largest anti-establishment political forces. Party leaders from France's National Front, Italy's Five Star Movement and the Netherlands' Party of Freedom offered congratulations to the president-elect, thrilled by his demonstration that the political and media establishment can be thwarted. Like Trump, they hope to ride the wave of anti-establishment fervor building on both sides of the Atlantic to power in 2017, when some of the European Union's biggest economies will hold national elections.

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Politics

Thursday, September 22, 2016

Here’s How the EU’s Crisis Is Tearing NATO Apart / Politics / European Union

By: John_Mauldin

BY KAMRAN BOKHARI : NATO has been searching for relevance for a generation. Now, as the EU faces a meltdown, the fate of NATO is even more unclear.

European nations are more and more discontent with the EU. The aftermath of Brexit, and the banking crisis that has spread from Italy to Germany, only inflame the tension. As a result, major European powers are less likely to play a bigger role in NATO.

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