Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Five Charts That Show We Are on the Brink of an Unthinkable Financial Crisis- John_Mauldin
2.Bitcoin Parabolic Mania - Zeal_LLC
3.Bitcoin Doesn’t Exist – 2 - Raul_I_Meijer
4.Best Time / Month of Year to BUY a USED Car is DECEMBER, UK Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Labour Sheffield City Council Election Panic Could Prompt Suspension of Tree Felling's Private Security - N_Walayat
6.War on Gold Intensifies: It Betrays the Elitists’ Panic and Augurs Their Coming Defeat Part2 - Stewart_Dougherty
7.How High Will Gold Go? - Harry_Dent
8.Bitcoin Doesn’t Exist – Forks and Mad Max - Raul_I_Meijer
9.UK Stagflation Risk As Inflation Hits 3.1% and House Prices Fall - GoldCore
10.New EU Rules For Cross-Border Cash, Gold Bullion Movements - GoldCore
Last 7 days
Carillion Bankruptcy and the PFI Sector Spiraling Costs Crisis, Amey, G4S, Balfour Beatty, Serco.... - 16th Jan 18
Artificial Intelligence - Extermination of Humanity - 16th Jan 18
Carillion Goes Bust, as Government Refuses to Bailout PFI Contractors Debt and Pensions Liabilities - 15th Jan 18
What Really Happens in Iran?  - 15th Jan 18
Stock Market Near an Intermediate Top? - 15th Jan 18
The Key Economic Indicator You Should Watch in 2018 - 15th Jan 18
London Property Market Crash Looms As Prices Drop To 2 1/2 Year Low - 15th Jan 18
Some Fascinating Stock Market Fibonacci Relationships... - 15th Jan 18
How to Know If This Stock Market Rally Will Continue for Two More Months? - 14th Jan 18
Everything SMIGGLE from Pencil Cases to Water Bottles, Pens and Springs! - 14th Jan 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport Very Bad MPG Fuel Economy! Real Owner's Review - 14th Jan 18
Gold Miners’ Status Updated - 13th Jan 18
Gold And Silver – Review of Annual, Qrtly, Monthly, Weekly Charts. Reality v Sentiment - 13th Jan 18
Gold GLD ETF Update.. Bear Market Reversal Watch - 13th Jan 18
Stock Market Leadership In 2018 To Come From Oil & Gas - 13th Jan 18
Stock Market Primed for a Reversal - 13th Jan 18
Live Trading Webinar: Discover 3 High-Confidence Trade Set-Ups - 13th Jan 18
Optimum Entry Point for Gold and Silver Stocks - 12th Jan 18
Stock Selloffs Great for Gold - 12th Jan 18
These 3 Facts Show Gold Is Set to Surge in 2018 - 12th Jan 18
How China is Locking Up Critical Resources in the US’s Own Backyard - 12th Jan 18
Stock futures are struggling. May reverse Today - 12th Jan 18
Three Surprising Places You See Cryptocurrency - 12th Jan 18
Semi Seconductor Stocks Canary Still Chirping, But He’s Gonna Croak in 2018 - 12th Jan 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport Panoramic Sunroof Questions Answered - 12th Jan 18
Information About Trading With Alpari And Its Advantages - 12th Jan 18
Stock Market Investing 2018 - “I Hope I’m Making a Bad Buy” - 11th Jan 18
S&P 500 Fluctuates As Stock Market May Be Topping, Or Not? - 11th Jan 18
SPECTRE Microprocessor Security Flaw - Big Brother = You - 11th Jan 18
7 Market Forecasts 2018 from the Brightest Financial Minds I Know - 11th Jan 18
It’s Not Enough to Be Contrarian - 11th Jan 18
Stocks That Take One for A Roller Coaster Ride Through the Thick And Thin Of Every Single Investment Made - 11th Jan 18
Police Arrest Tree Protester on Meersbrook Park Road, Sheffield - 10th Jan 18
Stock Market Aggressive Sell Signals - 10th Jan 18
The 2018 Decline in Precious Metals - 10th Jan 18
Gold Hits All-Time Highs Priced In Emerging Market Currencies - 10th Jan 18
TMV : 3X Leveraged Short on US Treasury Bonds - 10th Jan 18
Here are the Key Levels in Gold & Gold Miners - 10th Jan 18
Investment Advice That Probably No One Gave You Before - 9th Jan 18
S&P 500 Sets Another Record, But This May Be Short-Term Top - 9th Jan 18
Failure of War Party Foreign Policy - 9th Jan 18
Buying a Land Rover Discovery Sport HSE Black - Interior Review - 9th Jan 18
More Important Than Gold’s Bottoming Price - 9th Jan 18
Getting Bullish on Gold - 9th Jan 18
Share Market Is One Of The Most Encouraging Opportunity For Young... - 9th Jan 18
Stock Market Close Call... - 8th Jan 18
If You Hold VT Or Any Other Global ETF, You’ve Put All Your Eggs In One Basket - 8th Jan 18
Blowup with China or North Korea Could Change Almost Everything Overnight - 8th Jan 18
The Real LORAX and Once-ler's of Sheffield's Street Tree Felling's - 8th Jan 18
Share Trading is an Interesting for Everyone - 8th Jan 18
The Way to the New Cold War - 8th Jan 18
A little Stock Market Euphoria? - 8th Jan 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

6 Critical Money Making Rules

Stock Market Euphoria, China's Dumping of Treasuries Ignite Recession Concerns

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017 Mar 07, 2017 - 06:44 AM GMT

By: The_Gold_Report

Stock-Markets

Citing the uncertainty caused by China dumping U.S. Treasuries, an impending debt ceiling crisis, the upcoming French elections, and more, Wealth Research Group editor Lior Gantz advises investors to make sure their portfolios are diversified.

Each of the last five major U.S. recessions were preceded by a shrinking global trade as a percentage of GDP.


Peak globalization might go down in history as May 7, with the French elections, and it could signal the first major crash since 2008.

We've been following closely the euphoric Trump Trade—my personal portfolio is full of Chaos Hedges.

Global trade has declined six times over the past 50 years, and the U.S. entered a recession in five of those periods. The grey areas in the chart above represent recessions.

Global trade has become more than 25% of the $70 trillion in economic growth the world has seen since the 1950s.

Today, trade makes up 50% of world GDP.

This divide between countries benefiting from globalization and those who are exploited has gotten too big, and now this is backfiring on global politics.

The last big dip in trade was in 2009. The Great Recession came next.

The S&P 500 lost almost half its value during the recession, as well as the brutal crash of European and Japanese stocks by 62%, and the Chinese stocks that took a 74% hit.

We have reached peak globalization, and this is a monumental change in the roots of our economy.

Trump Policies Fit with Peak Globalization

Trump is threatening to walk away from free trade deals and place tariffs on imports instead.

The last time the U.S. imposed tariffs on a large scale was in 1930, and it made the Great Depression longer than it should have been.

Tariffs are import taxes, and they shrink the global trade.

We should be on high alert, as peak globalization isn't our only challenge. This euphoria is going to lead to many problems, and this type of bullishness hasn't been seen in 30 years.

But underneath this façade of a roaring bull market in stocks, every investor needs to remember one thing: The U.S. government is broke, and this fragile system of debt is a boiling pot.

There are only a few opportunities that are cheap and undervalued.

Later this week, we will be announcing our top Cobalt stock for 2017 for members of our free 365 Wealth newsletter.

It is making all-time highs on supply shortages, and after looking at 43 companies, we found the one that has a CEO who is the No. 1 authority on the global cobalt market.

As opposed to critical minerals, I am bearish on political stability.

Foreign creditors are selling U.S. government debt like never before.

Last year, China alone sold $188 billion worth of U.S. Treasury bills. That’s the most it's ever sold in one year.

Japan's unwinding its Treasury position, too. It sold about 2.4 trillion yen ($21 billion) worth of U.S. debt in December.

Japan and China are America's biggest creditors. Together, they own more than $2 trillion worth of U.S. government debt.

According to its own calculations, the government is $20 trillion in debt. That's twice as much debt as it had a decade ago.

Trump wants to spend $1 trillion rebuilding America's aging infrastructure and cut taxes, but foreign governments are switching to two-year bonds and aren't willing to finance long-term debts any longer.

Since the 1980s, Treasury bond prices have basically gone straight up. This is changing now, and this is the worst time to own bonds in the last 46 years.

Instead of showing up at the auctions, central banks are loading up on gold.

In fact, the governor of Kyrgyzstan's central bank, Tolkunbek Abdygulov, expressed his "dream" to see all six million citizens of the Central Asian country own at least 100 grams, or 3.5 ounces, of physical gold.

The two major events to pay attention to now are the debt ceiling, which is approaching its climax on March 15, and the French election on May 7.

Like Trump, French leading candidate Le Pen is campaigning with the attitude of restoring borders to their firmness.

The average Frenchman is just as sick of their government as Americans were.

France is suffering from a socialistic nightmare, which has caused the unemployment rate to rise above 10%.

Gold rose to its peak in 2016, as Brexit dominated headlines, and now we could be headed to a Frenchxit—France could be withdrawing from the European Union (EU).

Gold has finished up for January and February, and what is important to understand about physical bullion is just how much diversification it adds to the portfolio.

Gold is literally uncorrelated to all financial assets. It rises from genuine fear and uncertainty, as well as times of negative interest rates, like Germany's -0.94% bond yield.

A French exit from the EU would mean a full-blown global crisis.

The EU is the world's biggest economy, with a GDP of nearly $19.1 trillion.

If the EU collapses, trade wars would be next.

With Trump's budget speech, the debt ceiling approaching decision time on March 15, a likely Federal Reserve rate hike, and the French elections in two months, this is a time to make sure your holdings are diversified, as the euphoric feeling always spells trouble in the end.

Lior Gantz, an editor of Wealth Research Group, has built and runs numerous successful businesses and has traveled to over 30 countries in the past decade in pursuit of thrills and opportunities, gaining valuable knowledge and experience. He is an advocate of meticulous risk management, balanced asset allocation and proper position sizing. As a deep-value investor, Gantz loves researching businesses that are off the radar and completely unknown to most financial publications.

Want to read more Gold Report articles like this? Sign up for our free e-newsletter, and you'll learn when new articles have been published. To see a list of recent articles and interviews with industry analysts and commentators, visit our Streetwise Interviews page.

Disclosures:
1) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of Lior Gantz and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. Lior Gantz is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not involved in the content preparation. Lior Gantz was not paid by Streetwise Reports LLC for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article.
2) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports' terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
3) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise during the up-to-four-week interval from the time of the interview or article until after it publishes.

Charts provided by Wealth Research Group


© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules