Trump Stock Market Rally Over? 20% Bear Drop By Mid Summer?

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017 Mar 22, 2017 - 08:38 PM GMT

The stock market has been on a tear since Donald Trump surprised nearly everyone by winning the November 2016 US Presidential election, including the markets. Since which time the Dow has gone from a November low of 17,883 to an early March high of 21,200. That's a near 19% bull run in just 4 months! During which time America's Alt-Reality thin skinned President has often stepped forward to claim success for the stocks bull market rally under his Presidency.

My latest video takes a look at what could transpire over the coming month.

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By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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Comments

upwarddog
29 Mar 17, 03:44

Analysis, US Bond Market

Nadeem, as always your analysis is much appreciated and well respected. I take any other 'authors' with a grain of salt.

The US Bond market, specifically the 10 year to which US mortgage rates are tied, topped in mid December which is quite telling and aligns perfectly with your conclusions.

Despite the charade of two rate increases by the US Fed, long term mortgage rates have DECLINED. The bond market is telling us, clearly, that it does not buy the current Trump-ed up stock market levels.

My personal views conclude the same, that a correction is imminent. We just witnessed how the repeal of Obamacare was an utter embarrasment, and now the new spending bills will probably go the same way (nowhere).

"We're going to win so much that you might get tired of winning" he says. Now THAT is humor!

Please let us know when your US Housing analysis will be out, have been anxiously awaiting for months and as we all know, real estate prices rise along with rates for quite some time... until they don't. So we have a window, but for how long?

Cheers from Northern CA.

Nadeem_Walayat
31 Mar 17, 17:59

US Housing Market Analysis

Trump snd Brexit have been running interference on other analysis such as US housing. I still have to finish with brexit which I hope to do this weekend, and then there are the videos for Trump reset and Brexit, at least 2 brexit videos. So whilst I want to analyse US housing, my minds currently focused on Brexit with Trump humming in the background

Once brexit is done, then I'll probsbly do 2 videos on trump and then take sn indepth look at stocks or US housing, though I also have london housing humming in the background, so that may come before, all in all its going to be probably a month at least.

Best

Nsdeem W

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