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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

BrExit War - Theresa May Warns EU to Cease Interfering in UK General Election

Politics / BrExit May 05, 2017 - 02:49 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Politics

The general election appears to be fast accelerating the evaporation of the calm before the Brexit storm as negotiations appear to be breaking down even before they were due to be begin following the outcome of the 7th May French Presidential Election. It started early week following the leak of last weekends lunch between Theresa May and European Commission unelected President Jean-Claude Junker that saw the continents europhile press put an anti-British spin on the meeting.


Saturdays meeting having publically been declared a success was soon followed by leaks in the german press that Junker had come to the conclusion that he was now "ten times more convinced that there would be no deal" as Theresa May was seeking a trade deal whilst the EU had their own long list of demands to be fulfilled before any trade negotiations could begin such as an up front payment of at least Euro 60 billion that keeps increasing with each passing week. Whilst Junker's statement that "BrExit cannot be a success" says it all about what the EU plans for a rebellious Britain.

Theresa May after initially brushing aside the reports in the German press as inaccurate on Wednesday went on the offensive following realisation of the insidious game that the EU was attempting to play in attempts at subverting the outcome of the UK general election in the EU's favour and thus weakening Britain's Brexit negotiations.

“Britain’s negotiating position in Europe has been misrepresented in the continental press. The European Commission’s negotiating stance has hardened. Threats against Britain have been issued by European politicians and officials. All of these acts have been deliberately timed to affect the result of the general election that will take place on 8 June.”

But the events of the last few days have shown that – whatever our wishes, and however reasonable the positions of Europe’s other leaders – there are some in Brussels who do not want these talks to succeed, who do not want Britain to prosper.

So now more than ever we need to be led by a Prime Minister and a Government that is strong and stable.”

Meanwhile the latest out of the super state are warnings of the Euro 60 billion exit bill now having been inflated to Euro 100 billion as each member state bolts on their extraction of a pound of flesh from Britain on the way out. For instance France and Poland are now demanding that Britain continue paying its full share of the EU budget until at least 2020 AND have no share of EU assets whilst forced to pay for liabilities such as Pensions for the tens of thousands of euro-crats. At this rate the final bill demanded could reach Euro 200 billion. However, Britain can choose to pay nothing by just walking away without any agreement.

The bottom line is that the EU wants to agree everything in the EU's favour before negotiations begin on anything in Britain's favour. Which means the EU seeks to punish Britain to make an example to any other member state contemplating seeking freedom from the increasingly totalitarian super state.

The BrExit War

Welcome to the opening shots of the BrExit War! Whilst the timing may have slightly accelerated due to the impending June 8th General Election, nevertheless my extensive analysis following the triggering of Article 50 mapped out what Britain needs to expect and do to win the BrExit War that the UK will increasingly find itself engaged in with the European Union superstate.

Analysis that I am in the process of converting into a series of 10 videos in the run upto the June 8th vote.

1. The BrExit War - Article 50 Triggered General Election 2017 Called- Let the Games Begin!

The Brexit War - Article 50 Triggered, General Election 2017 Called

Therefore today's news of warnings that their may be no deal should not come as any surprise to my readers for the fundamental fact that the UK and EU are playing DIFFERENT GAMES with different objectives as I concluded a month ago -

06 Apr 2017 - The BrExit War, Game Theory Strategy for What UK Should Do to Win

Game Theory BrExit Conclusion

Whilst Theresa May appears more intelligent than David Cameron, unfortunately she is a politician from the same stock as 80% of those who inhabit Westminster so I suspect she will be sucked into the game the European Union intends on playing for some time. Where the game Britain will be playing will be one of the cooperative game theory, basically where no one loses i.e. Britain’s access to the single market being a win - win situation for Europe and Britain as the alternative would result in a loss of at least £150 billion in annual trade.

However the objective for the EU is for the negotiations to fail resulting in far greater pain for the UK than the EU, and thus Britain failing to leave the EU by 2 years from now.

So literally with each passing day in the Great Brexit negotiation game about to begin following triggering of Article 50, the cost and eventual pain Britain will suffer will increase as Britain runs around like a headless chicken trying to placate individual member states towards voting to agree to the agreement for Britain to leave the EU (qualified majority of 65%). Whilst the EU seeks to reinforce the status quo amongst all member states as that being most likely to result in the survival of the European Union which requires a far lower bar of just 36% voting against the agreement with Britain. So unless Britain is able to secure 65% which effectively would mean bribing France, Germany and the whole of Eastern Europe at a cost far greater than today's annual contributions, then there will be NO agreement.

SO understand this following the triggering of Article 50 that the primary objective of the EU is to destabilise the UK to such an extent that the UK becomes incapable of leaving the European Union.

The big question I am left asking is when will British the Government realise that they are in a LOSE, LOSE situation where the Brexit Negotiation Game is concerned, and so must realise that the only action that would result in Brexit is for Britain to unilaterally declare all of the EU membership treaties null and void and thus unilaterally leave the EU without agreement, a HARD BREXIT.

When will this happen? Definitely not anytime soon, but what about in 3 months’ time? 6 months, 1 year, 2 years? Will it ever happen? Will my update in 2 years’ time be from a Britain that has had its back broken by the European Union? Abandoning Brexit by declaring itself incapable of leaving the European Union, I hope not!

Of course in response to EU subversion the UK can play its own game of subversion of pitting member state against the EU in a downward death spiral for all.

And don't forget that Britain literally has Trump card to play, well until the CIA does a JFK on him, so things are not as bleak as they appear as long as Theresa May manages to quickly wake up and smell the coffee of the game that the EU has no choice but to play.

So the only way that Britain can leave the EU is by means of a HARD BREXIT. An Immediate hard BrExit would throw the European Union into turmoil, destabilise it and result in the likes of Germany and Italy as the greatest beneficiaries of trade with Britain to fast track agreements for sectors that other EU member nations will build on.

UK General Election Forecast

Whilst my forecast conclusion remains pending. However given Conservatives huge polls lead it has been crystal clear since Theresa May first announced that an election will be held on June 8th that the Conservatives would win the election with an increased majority. Where the only variable to be determined is how big could the Tory majority be? For if the polls this time turn out to be accurate then the Conservatives could even achieve a huge 100+ seat majority which would be a slap in the face of the unelected euro-crats hell bent on subversion of Britain's democratic process.

My forecast conclusion on the size of the Tory election victory will be shortly forthcoming so ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter to receive the forecast in your email in box.

Whilst the French election continues to counting down to a choice between an elite bankster and the far right , neither of which is good for France but a far right outcome would be better for Britain's BrExit.

Can Marine Le Pen Win? French Presidential Election Forecast 2017

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for my latest analysis and to our youtube channel for videos in the BrExit War series.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2017 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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