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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

UK Local Elections 2017 - Labour Blood Bath, UKIP Death, Tory June 8th Landslide

ElectionOracle / UK Local Elections May 06, 2017 - 03:40 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

The local election results have confounded election logic which is that the party in government tends to do badly at mid-term local elections. Of course we are not living in normal times, we are living in the age of BrExit where most voters realise the fundamental fact that there is only one party that has any chance of ensuring a successful Brexit outcome, the Conservative party and so the voters are intent on putting the country first by delivering Labour a blood bath whilst to all intents and purpose literally KILLING UKIP off in Thursdays vote which saw many Labour and most UKIP voters mark their ballot papers with crosses and ticks against the Conservative candidate.


The local election results table says it all on the Labour bloodbath and the death of UKIP.

UK local election results 2017
Seats gained or lost by party
 
Conservative
+558
Labour
-320
UKIP
-114
Lib Dem
-37
SNP
+31
Plaid Cymru
+26
Other / Ind
-170

 

The Death of UKIP

So the Conservatives instead of losing say 200 to 300 seats, instead gained near 560 seats at the expense of both Labour and UKIP that lost virtually every seat they were defending, leaving the party with just 1 surviving councillor, which amounts to the death of UKIP as clearly in the eyes of former UKIP voters UKIP has fully served its purpose of bringing about a Brexit outcome in the EU Referendum and therefore a vote for UKIP would now be a wholly wasted vote.

Therefore the sensible thing for UKIP to have already done, perhaps following the triggered of Article 50 in March was to declare victory and wind themselves up as a party, recommending that every former UKIP voter now gets firmly behind Theresa May so as to ensure the British government has a strong negotiating mandate during the negotiations (BrExit War). Instead amateurishly are attempting to cling on to council seats and fielding MP's taking potential votes from the Conservatives on June the 8th, when it is crystal clear that the voters no longer see any real point towards UKIP existing, and as UKIP loses more and more of the mass of its supporters and voters what remains of UKIP will drift towards the right, likely ending up on the far right fringes of the political spectrum where the likes of the BNP inhabit.

Similarly a large number of Labour voters who voted for BrExit understand that the only party that can make it happen are the Conservatives under Theresa May and so many for perhaps the first time in their lives voted for Conservative and will likely again in even greater numbers on June 8th.

Conservative Landslide

It does not take a genius to see how these local election results barely a month ahead of the June 8th General Election directly translate into a probable Tory landslide election victory in which the people of Britain appear intent on giving Theresa May a strong mandate to fight and win the BrExit War that Britain is engaged in against an increasingly belligerent European Union.

In terms of the share of the vote the Tories ended the night on 38% whilst Labour trailed 10% behind on 27% which approximately translates into a Conservative Westminster majority of about 60 seats, far less than some of the 100+ projections being bandied about by the pollsters and pundits in the mainstream press. However, the Tories do tend to do better in subsequent general elections than preceding local elections.

The BrExit War

My extensive analysis following the triggering of Article 50 mapped out what Britain needs to expect and do to win the BrExit War that the UK will increasingly find itself engaged in with the European Union superstate.

Analysis that I am in the process of converting into a series of 10 videos in the run upto the June 8th vote.

1. The BrExit War - Article 50 Triggered General Election 2017 Called- Let the Games Begin!

The Brexit War - Article 50 Triggered, General Election 2017 Called

UK General Election Forecast

Whilst my forecast conclusion remains pending. However given Conservatives huge polls lead it has been crystal clear since Theresa May first announced that an election will be held on June 8th that the Conservatives would win the election with an increased majority. Where the only variable to be determined is how big could the Tory majority be? For if the polls this time turn out to be accurate then the Conservatives could achieve a huge 100+ seat majority which would be a slap in the face of the unelected euro-crats hell bent on subversion of Britain's democratic process.

My forecast conclusion on the size of the Tory election victory will be shortly forthcoming so ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter to receive the forecast in your email in box.

Whilst the French election continues to counting down to a choice between an elite bankster and the far right , neither of which is good for France but a far right outcome would be better for Britain's BrExit.

Can Marine Le Pen Win? French Presidential Election Forecast 2017

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for my latest analysis and to our youtube channel for videos in the BrExit War series.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2017 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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