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Urgent Stock Market Message

YouGov Final Election Bullshit Forecast - Tories Increased Majority But on 302 Seats

ElectionOracle / UK General Election Jun 08, 2017 - 05:09 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat


YouGov are turning themselves into first class headline grabbing bullshit artists. Having gained mainstream media attention with their first of a series of headline grabbing seat forecasts just over a week ago that stated they were forecasting that the Conservatives would actually LOSE seats by falling to 310 with Labour rising to 247 i.e. a hung parliament. And with their latest Conservative seats forecast of 302, with Labour rising to 269. Now barely hours before the polls open YouGov are running with an headline that implies the EXACT OPPOSITE RESULT! "Final call poll: Tories lead by seven points and set to increase majority". So could someone explain to me how is one expected to capitalise / utilise / interpret YouGov's two alternative outcome forecasts?

Of course it's nonsense, as I illustrated in my video of Mid May of how and why the pollsters keep getting election after election very badly wrong. It's because opinion polls are propaganda tools for the mainstream media to peddle an agenda in their self interest of selling garbage to the masses.

Here's a reminder of YouGov on BrExit night - 52% Remain / 48% Leave.

And my analysis of late May warned that what we are seeing are FAKE POLLS, for I have seen this several times before, where a polling industry desperate to sell polls coupled with the mainstream media desperate to sell publications always demand a CLOSE election so as to garner the greatest amount of public interest, when in fact the reality is that the polls are FAKE :

26 May 2017 - Opinion Pollsters UK General Election Seats Forecasts 2017

Fake Polls

The latest opinion polls show the Tory 20% lead of a month ago has slumped to just 5%! However I consider this to be Polling BS, FAKE POLLS! I have seen this behaviour before, for instance with the Scottish Independence Referendum that the polling industry MANIPULATED into a 50/50 position. Instead my analysis at the time warned that the polls were deliberately WRONG so that the polling industry could sell their worthless pile of dog poop to the gullible masses as demanded by the commissioning broadsheets so that they can sell their garbage to the masses. FAKE POLLING !

12 Sep 2014 - Main Reason Why Scotland Will Vote NO to Independence, 70% Probability

The opinion polls paint a picture of a too close to call Scottish Independence vote on September 18th which even saw a 51% to 49% lead for the YES campaign just a few days ago that triggered much panic across the political spectrum and financial markets.

However, as I concluded in my recent in depth analysis that the actual probability for Scotland voting YES is just 30% rather than the near 50/50 proposition that the mainstream press has itself in a frenzy over:

So basically whatever the outcome YouGov will claim to have accurately forecast it!

Whilst I, unlike YouGov did actually correctly call the 2015 UK general election, EU referendum and Trump! Because my primary objective is always to arrive at that which is the most probable outcome so I can bet and win money on the result!

UK General Election 2017 Final Seats Per Party Forecast Conclusion

In summary my UK General Election 2017 forecast conclusion on the basis of the sum of my analysis of the preceding 6 weeks is for the Conservatives to win the election with a 66 seat majority by increasing their seats total from 331 to 358. And I expect Labour to drop by 20 seats to 212 with the Lib Dems gaining 4 to 12, and I expect the Scottish nationalists to lose 10 seats by dropping from 56 to 46.

By Nadeem Walayat

Copyright © 2005-2017 (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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