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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Main Reason Why Scotland Will Vote NO to Independence, 70% Probability

Politics / Scotland Sep 12, 2014 - 12:15 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Politics

The opinion polls paint a picture of a too close to call Scottish Independence vote on September 18th which even saw a 51% to 49% lead for the YES campaign just a few days ago that triggered much panic across the political spectrum and financial markets.

However, as I concluded in my recent in depth analysis that the actual probability for Scotland voting YES is just 30% rather than the near 50/50 proposition that the mainstream press has itself in a frenzy over:


Scottish Independence YES Vote Panic - Scotland Committing Suicide and Terminating the UK?

CONCLUSION - Which Way Will Scotland Vote?

Despite opinion polls now putting the YES vote in a slim lead of 51% to 49% and implying momentum being with the YES campaigners into the September 18th vote. When all things are considered the answer for the vast majority of Scots on September 18th will be whether Scotland would be better off in or outside the United Kingdom that can only lead to one conclusion which is that Scotland voting YES would be tantamount to the nation committing suicide. Therefore the whole Independence referendum game that Scotland plays every few decades is not actually about gaining Independence from the UK but rather one of black mailing England into both giving more powers (devomax) to Scotland AND increasing the amount of net subsidy (ransom) that Scotland extracts from England that in public spending terms works out to an extra £1600 spent per person per annum which is why Scotland can afford to send its children to Universities for FREE whilst English children are saddled with at least £40,000 of tuition fee debts.

However, England has NO CHOICE but to continue to pay Scotland's annual ransom for staying in the Union as the consequences for the the UK would be dire should Scottish Independence actually happen as it would probably prove fatal for BOTH Scotland and what remains of the UK, resulting in economic and social chaos that would destroy much of what has been built over the past 300 years.

So in my opinion Scotland will Vote NO to Independence and YES to a continuing extract a Queens ransom from Westminister. On the other hand, if I am proven wrong and the Scots like lemmings actually do vote to leap off the cliff, then September 18th should be taken as a STRONG signal to DIS-INVEST from the UK and to construct and implement personal exit strategies from the UK that I will write much about in the event of such a calamity.

The ONE main reason why Scotland will overwhelmingly reject Independence / separation / ripping the UK apart, even suicide, is the £1,600 per head annual subsidy. For that is the minimum amount of subsidy that English workers are forced to pay annually towards every man woman and child in Scotland by Westminister politicians who never see the day to day repercussions on ordinary people of their actions, as £1600 amounts to a very effective bribe that allows Scots to enjoy a level of public services that the people of England can only dream about such as FREE University tuition rather than English students being saddled with £40,000 of debt, amongst many other benefits such as free NHS eye tests and prescriptions in Scotland whilst English patients have to pay etc.

Therefore most Scots will vote with their pockets rather than their hearts by understanding the huge extent to which their way of life is being subsidised by England, and it is England and not the UK that pays for England subsidises all of the constituent states of the United Kingdom as illustrated by the below graphic by the Office of National Statistics.

Source: ONS

An Independent Scotland would immediately result in an EXTRA £100 available to spend per head of English population on public services. Whilst for Scotland a loss of £1600 per head would only mark the start of their nightmare of filling the void between what Scotland earns and what it spends on its socialist public sector state.

Furthermore the huge subsidy / transference of wealth from England to Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales is what allows these states to employ 40% MORE mostly unproductive public sector workers per head of population than England. The effect of which is to drive down productivity as a large unproductive public sector tends to drown out the productive private sector.

This also explains why there will never even be a murmur out of either Wales or Northern Ireland for demands for Independence, not whilst English workers are working hard to finance their life styles to such a great extent.

So in my opinion rather than the outcome of the Scottish referendum being too close to call, instead I would be not be surprised if as many as 70% of the Scottish people vote NO to losing over £1600 per annum per person!

More reasons on why Scotland will vote NO In my recent video -

Source and comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article47313.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2014 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

R.E.B
12 Sep 14, 16:39
SNP EU

The biggest gag of all to my mind, alongside the currency cluelessness, is the fervency with which the SNP talk of entering the EU. Unhappy with so called rule from Westminster that forces them to endure massive subsidy from the UK, the are nevertheless quite happy it seems to be governed by a bunch of unelected bureaucrats and ex Goldman Sachs bankers in Brussels. I cannot believe they do not see the glaring contradiction.


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