Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
US Coronavirus Trend Trajectory Forecast Current State - 7th Apr 20
Boris Johnson Fighting for his Life In Intensive Care - UK Coronavirus Crisis - 7th Apr 20
Precious Metals Are About To Reset Like In 2008 – Gold Bugs, Buckle Up! - 7th Apr 20
Crude Oil's 2020 Crash: See What Helped (Some) Traders Pivot Just in Time - 7th Apr 20
Was the Fed Just Nationalized? - 7th Apr 20
Gold & Silver Mines Closed as Physical Silver Becomes “Most Undervalued Asset” - 7th Apr 20
US Coronavirus Blacktop Politics - 7th Apr 20
Coronavirus is America's "Pearl Harbour" Moment, There Will be a Reckoning With China - 6th Apr 20
Coronavirus Crisis Exposes Consequences of Fed Policy: Americans Have No Savings - 6th Apr 20
The Stock Market Is Not a Magic Money Machine - 6th Apr 20
Gold Stocks Crash, V-Bounce! - 6th Apr 20
How Can Writing Business Essay Help You In Business Analytics Skills - 6th Apr 20
PAYPAL WARNING - Your Stimulus Funds Are at Risk of Being Frozen for 6 Months! - 5th Apr 20
Stocks Hanging By the Fingernails? - 5th Apr 20
US Federal Budget Deficits: To $30 Trillion and Beyond - 5th Apr 20
The Lucrative Profitability Of A Move To Negative Interest Rates - Pandemic Edition - 5th Apr 20
Visa Denials: How to avoid it and what to do if your Visa is denied? - 5th Apr 20 - Uday Tank
WARNING PAYPAL Making a Grab for US $1200 Stimulus Payments - 4th Apr 20
US COVID-19 Death Toll Higher Than China’s Now. Will Gold Rally? - 4th Apr 20
Concerned That Asia Could Blow A Hole In Future Economic Recovery - 4th Apr 20
Bracing for Europe’s Coronavirus Contractionand Debt Crisis - 4th Apr 20
Stocks: When Grass Looks Greener on the Other Side of the ... Pond - 3rd Apr 20
How the C-Factor Could Decimate 2020 Global Gold and Silver Production - 3rd Apr 20
US Between Scylla and Charybdis Covid-19 - 3rd Apr 20
Covid19 What's Your Risk of Death Analysis by Age, Gender, Comorbidities and BMI - 3rd Apr 20
US Coronavirus Infections & Deaths Trend Trajectory - How Bad Will it Get? - 2nd Apr 20
Silver Looks Bearish Short to Medium Term - 2nd Apr 20
Mickey Fulp: 'Never Let a Good Crisis Go to Waste' - 2nd Apr 20
Stock Market Selloff Structure Explained – Fibonacci On Deck - 2nd Apr 20
COVID-19 FINANCIAL LOCKDOWN: Can PAYPAL Be Trusted to Handle US $1200 Stimulus Payments? - 2nd Apr 20
Day in the Life of Coronavirus LOCKDOWN - Sheffield, UK - 2nd Apr 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Trajectory - Deviation Against Forecast - 1st Apr 20
Huge Unemployment Is Coming. Will It Push Gold Prices Up? - 1st Apr 20
Gold Powerful 2008 Lessons That Apply Today - 1st Apr 20
US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video - 1st Apr 20
From Global Virus Acceleration to Global Debt Explosion - 1st Apr 20
UK Supermarkets Coronavirus Panic Buying Before Lock Down - Tesco Empty Shelves - 1st Apr 20
Gold From a Failed Breakout to a Failed Breakdown - 1st Apr 20
P FOR PANDEMIC - 1st Apr 20
The Past Stock Market Week Was More Important Than You May Understand - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus - No, You Do Not Hear the Fat Lady Warming Up - 31st Mar 20
Life, Religions, Business, Globalization & Information Technology In The Post-Corona Pandemics Age - 31st Mar 20
Three Charts Every Stock Market Trader and Investor Must See - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Stocks Bear Market Trend Forecast - Video - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Dow Stocks Bear Market Into End April 2020 Trend Forecast - 31st Mar 20
Is it better to have a loan or credit card debt when applying for a mortgage? - 31st Mar 20
US and UK Coronavirus Trend Trajectories vs Bear Market and AI Stocks Sector - 30th Mar 20
Are Gold and Silver Mirroring 1999 to 2011 Again? - 30th Mar 20
Stock Market Next Cycle Low 7th April - 30th Mar 20
United States Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Forecasts Into End April 2020 - 29th Mar 20
Some Positives in a Virus Wracked World - 29th Mar 20
Expert Tips to Save on Your Business’s Office Supply Purchases - 29th Mar 20
An Investment in Life - 29th Mar 20
Sheffield Coronavirus Pandemic Infections and Deaths Forecast - 29th Mar 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-stocks-bear-market-2020-analysis

UK General Election Results Map 2017 vs 2015 vs Opinion Polls

ElectionOracle / UK General Election Jun 13, 2017 - 06:48 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

The UK General Election result of 2017 surprised all just as had the election result of 2015 when every polls based analyst had been expecting a hung parliament with the most probable outcome being for a Labour led coalition government. Instead David Cameron's Tories in 2015 eeked out a small outright majority government that gave the Conservatives the false confidence to go ahead with the EU referendum again based on the opinion polls that REMAIN could not lose, but they did and so did Cameron and Osborne. Now it was the turn of Theresa May to get it very badly wrong, lulled into a false sense of BrExit security as the pollsters this time forecast a certain landslide, when instead the impossible Hung Parliament materialised literally forcing Theresa May into doing a deal with Northern Irelands Protestant fundamentalists.


The electoral map of 2015 saw vast swathes of England voting for the Tories, punctuated by inner city Labour pockets with an unprecedented Scottish Nationalists Independence inducing victory in Scotland. Whilst the Liberal Democrats were all but wiped out.

Whilst the electoral map of 2017 sees Labour breaking out of their densely populated inner city enclaves by taking a wide spread of seats that included many former safe Tory seats such as Kensington. The only saving grace for the Conservatives was that the Scottish Nationalists received a bloody nose in Scotland, that actually saved the Conservative's from losing power to a Labour / SNP alliance had the Tories not done so well in Scotland.

UK General Election 2017 Result

The following table further illustrates the unexpected nature of the election result that no one saw coming, as the pollsters once more were not just wrong but floating off into a fantasy land of a Conservative Landslide election victory where early on the consensus was for Theresa May's government winning over 400 seats! Similarly expectations were widespread for a Labour bloodbath loss resulting in an error of 87 seats against that which subsequently transpired.

UK General Election 2017 vs 2015 vs Opinion Pollster Forecasts
 
GE 2017
GE 2015
*Pollsters Av
error
Conservatives
318
331
-13
394
+76
Labour
262
232
+30
175
-87
SNP
35
56
-21
51
+16
Lib Dem
12
8
+4
10
-2
Other
24
23
+1
   
 

*Polls based early to mid May 2017 seats forecasts

Worthless Opinion Polls Fooled Theresa May into Calling a Snap General Election

The 2017 General Election has proved to be one of the most volatile elections in terms of the opinion polls for some time, which has seen the opinion polls based forecasters literally playing pin the tail on the donkey that convinced Theresa May to call a BrExit snap general election. The pollsters forecasting a Tory landslide election victory of over 400 seats mostly persisted until barely to 2 weeks before polling day as the following table illustrates:

UK General Election Forecasts - May 2017

Forecasts Date Tory Labour Lib SNP
Iaindale.com 7th May
389
165
17
53
YouGov 16th May
361
213
Lord Ashcroft 12th May
412
Electoral Calculus .co.uk 5th May
404
171
8
45
Election Forecast .co.uk 10th May
411
158
8
53
Forecastuk.org.uk 10th May
383
183
8
52
Spread Betting Markets (IG) 12th May
397
160

 

Whilst I repeatedly warned that the pollsters had been consistently wrong for every major election since 2010 and that it was highly probable that they were very wrong again as illustrated by my following video:

And where subsequently the pollsters did exhibit extreme volatility in their poll numbers that translated into a forecast of seats range for the Tories from 302 to 420. Whilst here are the final seat forecasts just prior to Thursdays vote, including my own based on the sum of my analysis of the preceding 6 weeks and separately based on my house prices based forecast which proved by far the most reliable forecaster for the outcome of the 2015 General Election, and once turned out to be the closest to the actual outcome.

UK General Election Final Forecasts

Forecasts Date Tory Labour Lib SNP
Lord Ashcroft 6th June
357
Electoral Calculus .co.uk 6th June
361
216
3
48
Election Forecast .co.uk 6th June
375
198
8
36
Forecastuk.org.uk 6th June
350
225
8
44
Spread Betting Markets (IG) 7th June
371
199
12
46
* YouGov - Forecast 1 (Hung) 7th June
302
269
3
48
*YouGov - Forecast 2 (Con Maj) 8th June
362
     
Nadeem Walayat - Forecast Conclusion 4th June
358
212
12
46
Nadeem Walayat - House Prices 3rd June
342
BBC Exit Poll - 10pm 8th June
314
266
14
34
BBC Exit Poll - Revised 2.15am 9th June
322
261
13
32
Actual Result 9th June
318
262
12
35

*YouGov forecast two opposite outcomes so that they could claim to have called the election outcome correctly whatever the result.

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for my forthcoming in-depth analysis that Deconstructs the UK General Election 2017 result in lessons learned for forecasting future elections. And to my youtube channel for video analysis and forecasts.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2017 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules