Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

US Stock Market Correction Could be Underway

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017 Jun 24, 2017 - 01:44 PM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro

Stock-Markets

The market started the week at SPX 2433. After a gap up opening on Monday, and a new all-time high to SPX 2454, the market pulled back to 2431 by Wednesday. After a rally to SPX 2442 on Thursday the market pulled back to 2431 again on Friday. Then ended the week at SPX 2438. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.95%. Economic reports for the week were slightly positive. On the downtick: weekly jobless claims and the WLEI. On the uptick: existing/new home sales and leading indicators. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the Q1 GDP update and the Chicago PMI.


LONG TERM: uptrend

Not much has changed on the long-term count since April. We continue to label the SPX 1810 low as the end of Primary wave II, with the early stages of Primary III underway. From that low we have labeled Intermediate waves i and ii of Major 1 ending in the spring of 2016. Then we labeled Minor waves 1 and 2 of Intermediate iii ending in the summer of 2016. Next we have Minor waves 3 and 4 of Intermediate iii ending in the spring of 2017. This suggests the current uptrend is Minor wave 5 of Intermediate iii.

When this uptrend concludes an Intermediate wave iv downtrend will unfold. Since Intermediate iii took five waves/trends to unfold: June 2016 – June 2017. The downtrend/correction to follow could be the largest of the entire bull market. The corrections since February 2016 have been about 5%, and about 80-120 SPX points. If the recent high at SPX 2454 ended the uptrend, then initial support should be at the 2321, 2286 and 2270 pivots.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend topped?

The uptrend that began at the Minor 4 low, SPX 2329, in mid-April has unfolded in five Minute waves: 2406-2353-2446-2416/2419-2454 thus far. If Minute iv ended with a failed flat at SPX 2419, then the rally to 2454 could have been all of Minute wave v. Especially if the SPX breaks that low in the coming days. If Minute iv was a simple zigzag to SPX 2416, then the rally to SPX 2454 unfolded in 3-waves: 2444-2419-2454, suggesting either a subdividing Minute v leading to new highs, or an ending diagonal leading to nominal new highs in the days ahead.

Technical indicators support the SPX 2454 uptrend high scenario. There are negative divergences on the daily RSI and MACD, and the weekly RSI/MACD as well. Typically that would be enough to suggest a downtrend is underway. Adding to this possibility is a possible end to the 7-month, Intermediate wave iii, uptrend in the NAZ at the recent high of 6342. It sold off rapidly after that high, and has negative divergences on both its daily and weekly RSI. The technicals support a correction scenario is next. Medium term support is at the 2428 and 2411 pivots, with resistance at the 2444 and 2456 pivots.

SHORT TERM

The short-term count has been fairly clear since the Minor wave 4 downtrend low at SPX 2329. Five waves up to SPX 2406, a pullback, five waves up to 2446, a pullback, and then one wave up to 2454. The problem at the moment is whether or not SPX 2416 ended the last pullback or SPX 2419. In either case a drop below SPX 2419, any time soon, resolves the problem to the downside. A rally above SPX 2454 suggests an ongoing uptrend. The past four days have traded between SPX 2431 and 2447.

Short term support is at the 2428 and 2411 pivots, with resistance at the 2444 and 2456 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week just below neutral. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were mixed and gained 0.3%.

European markets were mostly lower and lost 0.2%.

The DJ World index gained 0.2%, and the NYSE lost 0.3%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds continue to uptrend but lost 0.1%.

Crude remains in a downtrend and lost 4.4%.

Gold is still in an uptrend and finished the week flat.

The USD remains in a downtrend but gained 0.1%.

NEXT WEEK

Monday: durable goods at 8:30. Tuesday: Case-Shiller and consumer confidence. Wednesday: pending home sales. Thursday: Q1 GDP (est. 1.2%) and jobless claims. Friday: personal income/spending, the CPI, the Chicago PMI, and consumer sentiment.

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

https://caldaro.wordpress.com

After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2017 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Tony Caldaro Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in