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Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

Stocks At Record Highs: Market Sentiment Still Bullish

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017 Jun 27, 2017 - 06:24 AM GMT

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stock-Markets

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral


The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between 0.0% and +0.5% on Friday, as investors continued to hesitate following economic data, quarterly earnings releases. The S&P 500 index remains relatively close to its last Monday's new all-time high of 2,453.82. It has reached new record high after a breakout above short-term consolidation along the level of 2,420-2,440. Stocks have rebounded strongly following their mid-May quick two-session sell-off and continued over eight-year-long bull market off 2009 lows. The Dow Jones Industrial Average remains close to its last Tuesday's new all-time high at the level of 21,535.03. The technology Nasdaq Composite was relatively stronger than the broad stock market on Friday, as it continued to retrace its recent move down. The nearest important support level of the S&P 500 index is at around 2,430-2,435, marked by last Monday's daily gap up of 2,433.15-2,441.79. The next level of support is at 2,415-2,420, marked by some recent local lows. The support level is also at 2,400-2,410, marked by the May 25 daily gap up of 2,405.58-2,408.01, among others. On the other hand, level of resistance is at 2,450-2,455, marked by new all-time high. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we can see overbought conditions and negative technical divergences. The S&P 500 index is trading within its three-week-long consolidation, as we can see on the daily chart:

Will Uptrend Continue?

Expectations before the opening of today's trading session are positive, with index futures currently up 0.3% vs. their Friday's closing prices. The European stock market indexes have gained 0.7-1.0% so far. Investors will now wait for the Durable Orders number release at 8:30 a.m. The market expects that it fell 0.6% in May. The S&P 500 futures contract trades within an intraday uptrend, as it breaks above its last week's consolidation along the level of 2,430. The nearest important level of support is at 2,425-2,430, marked by last Monday's gap-up opening, among others. The next support level is at around 2,415-2,420, marked by recent local lows. The nearest important level of resistance is at around 2,445-2,450, marked by record high, among others. The market extends its short-term consolidation, as it continues to trade along all-time high. Is this a topping pattern before downward reversal or just flat correction within an uptrend? There have been no confirmed negative signals so far.

Positive Expectations

The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract follows a similar path, as it currently trades within an intraday uptrend. It retraces some more of June 9 sell-off. The nearest important level of resistance is at 5,840-5,850, marked by previous short-term local lows. The next resistance level is at around 5,900, marked by record high. On the other hand, support level is at around 5,800-5,810, marked by previous level of resistance. The next support level is at 5,770, among others, as the 15-minute chart shows:

Concluding, the S&P 500 index continued to trade relatively close to record high on Friday. Will over eight-year-long bull market continue? Or is this some medium-term topping pattern accompanied by very bullish investors' sentiment? There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we still can see negative technical divergences, along with medium-term overbought conditions.

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Thank you.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
Stock Trading Alerts
SunshineProfits.com

Stock market strategist, who has been known for quality of his technical and fundamental analysis since the late nineties. He is interested in forecasting market behavior based on both traditional and innovative methods of technical analysis. Paul has made his name by developing mechanical trading systems. Paul is the author of Sunshine Profits’ premium service for stock traders: Stock Trading Alerts.

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Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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