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Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

Soft Fake BrExit as Theresa May Destroys Britain's Strong EU Negotiating Stance

Politics / BrExit Jun 30, 2017 - 07:18 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Politics

So everyone got the 2017 UK general election outcome WRONG. Which included my UK house prices based analysis that was the most accurate predictor of the 2015 general election, however this time based on April house price data implied a Conservative win on 342 seats. So despite being the most accurate of all of the forecasts out there, nevertheless did get the election outcome wrong i.e. unlike for Trump there was no betting markets profits bonanza for this election.


UK General Election Final Forecasts

Forecasts Date Tory Labour Lib SNP
Lord Ashcroft 6th June
357
Electoral Calculus .co.uk 6th June
361
216
3
48
Election Forecast .co.uk 6th June
375
198
8
36
Forecastuk.org.uk 6th June
350
225
8
44
Spread Betting Markets (IG) 7th June
371
199
12
46
YouGov - Forecast 8th June
362
     
Nadeem Walayat - Forecast Conclusion 4th June
358
212
12
46
Nadeem Walayat - House Prices 3rd June
342
BBC Exit Poll - 10pm 8th June
314
266
14
34
BBC Exit Poll - Revised 2.15am 9th June
322
261
13
32
Actual Result 9th June
318
262
12
35

 

And so the election result rather than bringing strength and stability to Britain has instead introduced economic, political and social chaos, even Britain's infrastructure appears to be disintegrating when one looks at the Grenfell fire and its aftermath, one of every cladded tower block tested to date failing fire safety tests! Which implies all of the previous safety tests were sub standard fake tests!

Political chaos has the Conservatives forced to do a deal with the DUP protestant fundamentalists of Northern Ireland, who's support has been bought for £1.5 billion per annum, that's £150 million per DUP MP, which leaves a very bitter taste across the rest of the United Kingdom.

And then we have BrExit, which has likely has been crippled by the election result because as the following table illustrates that the parliamentary numbers just do not stack up for the Government to have a strong negotiating stance to achieve REAL Brexit, let alone to do much of anything else until the next general election. Therefore Theresa May has destroyed the trend trajectory that Britain was on towards a REAL BrExit. Now Britain looks set to get a Soft FAKE BrExit.

 
Real BrExit
Fake BrExit
Conservative
292
25
Labour
5
255
SNP
35
Lib Dem
12
DUP
10
PC
4
Green
1
 
307
332

 

All of the BrExit hopes and dreams of a new dawn for Britain have now been destroyed, and it remains to see what happens next given the chaos the Britain now faces. For REAL BrExit to happen Britain HAS to leave the Single Market AND the Customs Union, failure to do so means that Britain will not be taking back control of laws, borders, or the ability to make trade agreements.

So it looks like Brexit will now become one of those EU can's that keeps getting kicked down the road. A disaster for Britain that could yield much economic and social consequences due to the failure of the Government to deliver on the will of the people, rather asoft Fake Brexit that now looks likely to materialise, one where the EU retains control of Britain's ability to make laws, and borders as well as control of making trade agreements, so effectively NO BREXT.

This means a continuation of out of control EU immigration, and the route the EU represents to the UK for the exponentially expanding African population explosion and climate change driven chaos that Europe increasingly faces over the coming years and decades of migrant flows that will steadily build to more than 10 times the present day migration crisis, where a REAL Brexit would have ensured that Britain was best placed to survive the climate change driven migration storm that can only intensify with each passing year.

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for my forthcoming in-depth analysis on the election forecast lessons learned for next time, and to my youtube channel

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2017 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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